21 Harvey Dr · Westbrook Center, CT
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $829 – $1,539
Heat risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Hot days now (above 93°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 18 days/yr
Wind risk 8/10 · Major
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 80.0%
Air-quality risk 4/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 4 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 5 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Schools +4.9/10.0
- Livability +3.7/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$185,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
It's time to own your beach home in the heart of Old Saybrook! This well-maintained mobile home is located within a 55+ coastal community. The home features two spacious bedrooms and an open-concept living and dining area. The kitchen boasts ample cabinets and vibrant color. Step through the sliding door to a bright built-in porch, perfect for relaxing. Recent updates include a new roof and a stackable washer and dryer, offering comfort and convenience in a move-in ready home. Enjoy easy single-level living, low maintenance, and close proximity to shopping, dining, highways, and Old Saybrook's shoreline attractions. Call today - this home won't last! Purchase contingent on buyer approval by
Key facts
- Built-in porch
- Beach home
- Single-level living
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $185k).
Location & tenants
- Location reads 73/100 on livability (#69 in CT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
- Old Saybrook School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #66 of 153 in CT (top 43%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
- Zoned schools: Kathleen E. Goodwin School (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B-, #159 of 553 statewide, top 31%, 401 students, 24% FRL); Old Saybrook Senior High School (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #80 of 194 statewide, top 44%, 347 students, 22% FRL).
- Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 278 units permitted in Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.89% ✓
- Cap rate
- 12.92%
- Cash-on-cash
- 23.66%
- DSCR
- 2.05
- GRM
- 4.4
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $523,512
- Comps found
- 4
Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Stone Hedge Rd | 0.72mi | 2/1.0 | 792 (0%) | 5mo | $165,000 | $208 | 62 |
| 39 Sagamore Terrace Rd | 0.69mi | 2/1.0 | 825 (+4%) | 3mo | $545,000 | $661 | 59 |
| 6 Tucker Rd | 0.66mi | 2/1.5 | 780 (-2%) | 14mo | $630,250 | $808 | 53 |
| 33 Green Acres Park Dr | 0.44mi | 2/1.0 | 728 (-8%) | 21mo | $66,500 | $91 | 49 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 16.9%
- Equity multiple
- 1.68×
- Total profit
- $35,410
- Equity at exit
- $27,584
- IRR
- 25.5%
- Equity multiple
- 3.24×
- Total profit
- $115,973
- Equity at exit
- $15,995
Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 27 Tenant-Leaning
- State Connecticut
- 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 06475
- Active inventory
- 69
- Price-to-rent
- 4.4×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $3,500 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$970
- Tax from tax record
- −$78 /mo · $941/yr
- Insurance
- −$77
- HOA
- −$618
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$735
- Net cashflow
- $1,021
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $46,250
- Closing costs
- $5,550
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 1 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Thompson Ln Old Saybrook, CT | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1100 | $3,500 | $3.18 | 44d | 1 | 0.38mi |
HOA detail
- Monthly dues
- $618 · $7,416/yr
Listing history 2 events
-
2026-03-15status Under Contract
-
2026-03-08$185,000 Active
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $941 · $78/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $2,450 · $204/mo
- Expected delta
- +$1,509/yr (+$126/mo · 160.4%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 2/10 Low
- Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $42,000
- − Mortgage interest
- −$10,363
- − Property taxes
- −$941
- − Insurance
- −$925
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$3,360
- − Management
- −$3,360
- − HOA
- −$7,416
- − Depreciation
- −$5,382
- Taxable income
- $10,253
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$2,461
- After-tax cash flow
- $9,795/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Old Saybrook School District
- NCES district ID
- 0903180
- Math proficiency
- 45% ▼ -19.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 64% ▼ -10.00%
- Median HH income
- $74,710
- Composite
- 48.81/100
- National rank
- #2090
- State rank
- #66 of 153 in CT
Livability — Westbrook Center
- Score
- 73/100
- State rank
- #69
- US rank
- #5086
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Population (ZIP)
- 10,515
Population outlook (Lower Connecticut River Valley County) Hauer SSP2
- By 2040
- 188,651
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (90%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Asian 1% Native American 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Puerto Rican 2%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 8% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 8% · Canada, China
- Languages at home
- 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Lower Connecticut River Valley
- 2024 margin
- D (+13.4) · D 55.9% · R 42.4% · Other 1.7%
- All cycles
- 2024: D+13.4
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -222.11%
- Current HPI
- 301.8614
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.06%
- F500 in state
- 38
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Machinery | 4 | $38B |
|
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| Insurance | 3 | $71B |
|
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| Financial Services | 2 | $25B |
|
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| Transportation / Logistics | 2 | $18B |
|
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| Healthcare | 1 | $247B |
|
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| Telecommunications | 1 | $55B |
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Price history
2 events — show timeline
- 2026-03-15 Pending — Smart MLS
- 2026-03-08 Listed $185,000 Smart MLS
Property tax history
+1.4%/yrLatest (2023): $941 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…