13931 Irving Ln · Lytle Creek, CA 92358

$365,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,078 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 326 Days on market

Built 1930 7,392 sqft lot $339/sqft · 21% below area Est $462k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful Cabin is located in a quiet area and it has awesome view of the mountains and creeks. 1 bedroom, i bath, bonus room, wood burning fireplace. Detached room and garage, huge backyard.

Key facts

• Huge backyard
• 7,392 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• HUGE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-612 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (29.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (43.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (43.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#1,367 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, employment B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rialto Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #268 of 517 in CA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Nancy R. Kordyak Elementary (608 students, 56% FRL); Ethel Kucera Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 964 students, 76% FRL); Wilmer Amina Carter High (math 31% / reading 61%, grade D-, #409 of 1,170 statewide, top 36%, 2,212 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools at 69% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $36k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 326 days — a 12% lower offer ($321k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $365k implies a 356% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,000 (43.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 326 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.19%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 14.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $461,728
• List price: $365,000
• Delta: -20.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13908 Meadow Ln	0.04mi	2/1.5 (+1)	1,182 (+10%)	7mo	$465,000	$393	69
14101 Pollard Dr	0.21mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,032 (-4%)	12mo	$398,000	$386	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $159,645
• Equity at exit: $328,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.90×
• Total profit: $500,500
• Equity at exit: $709,115

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92358

• Home prices YoY: 12.0%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 14.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,050 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,987/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $-612

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,825

Max offer price $256,838

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-406	-5% $-509	+0% $-612	+5% $-716	+10% $-819
Rent	-10% $-774	-5% $-693	+0% $-612	+5% $-531	+10% $-450
Rate	-1.0pp $-428	-0.5pp $-519	base $-612	+0.5pp $-707	+1.0pp $-803

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14043 Meadow Ln Lytle Creek, CA	2.0	1.0	880	$2,050	$2.33	45d	1	0.12mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $365,000 Active 326 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $365,000 Active 323 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $365,000 Active 322 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $365,000 Active 321 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $365,000 Active 320 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $365,000 Active 318 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $365,000 Active 317 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $365,000 Active 314 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $365,000 Active 313 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $365,000 Active 312 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $365,000 Active 309 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $365,000 Active 308 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $365,000 Active 307 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $365,000 Active 306 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $365,000 Active 305 DOM
16. 2025-07-30
    listed $365,000 Active 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    This beautiful Cabin is located in a quiet area and it has awesome view of the mountains and creeks. 1 bedroom, i bath, bonus room, wood burning fireplace. Detached room and garage, huge backyard.

17. 2025-07-29
    listed $365,000 Active 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    This is a beautiful home/Cabin. quite area surrounded with mountains views and creeks. 1 bedroom 1 bath, additional bonus room, wood burning fireplace, wood fenced, detached room for mother in-law. Detached garage, huge, big backyard. Closed to National Forest, beautiful place for picnic especially on weekends and holidays.

18. 2025-02-24
    historical
19. 2024-09-20
    price $399,900
20. 2024-09-20
    price $399
21. 2024-09-19
    price $399,900
22. 2024-07-16
    price $420,000
23. 2024-05-21
    price $420,000
24. 2024-02-26
    listed $450,000 Active
25. 1988-08-09
    soldstatus $80,000
26. 1982-11-22
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,987 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,774 · $231/mo
• Expected delta: +$787/yr (+$66/mo · 39.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥95°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$1,987
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,968
• − Management: −$1,968
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$14,212
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,411
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,936/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rialto Unified
• NCES district ID: 0632370
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,916
• Composite: 30.77/100
• National rank: #6154
• State rank: #268 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lytle Creek

• Score: 42/100
• State rank: #1367
• US rank: #27080

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment B Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lytle Creek, CA
• Population (ZIP): 712

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 5% Native American 4% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Portuguese 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Korean 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.96%
• Current HPI: 438.7806
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+942.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-30 Listed $365,000 CRMLS
• 2025-07-29 Listed $365,000 AVMLS
• 2025-02-24 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-09-20 Price Changed $399,900 AVMLS
• 2024-09-20 Price Changed $399 AVMLS
• 2024-09-19 Price Changed $399,900 CRMLS
• 2024-07-16 Price Changed $420,000 CRMLS
• 2024-05-21 Price Changed $420,000 AVMLS
• 2024-02-26 Listed $450,000 CRMLS
• 1988-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 1982-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,987 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.