148 Wavecrest Dr · Mastic Beach, NY 11951

$399,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 986 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1996 6,098 sqft lot $405/sqft · 13% below area Est $460k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This in-line ranch has three bedrooms and one bathroom. The big primary bedroom comes with a walk-in closet. You’ll love the wood floors all around and the newer appliances. The basement is partially finished, giving you a laundry area and some extra space to hang out. Plus, the fully fenced backyard is great for entertaining. It’s also super close to Osprey Park and Marina, making it a perfect spot to enjoy!

Key facts

• Wood floors
• Laundry area
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET
• WOOD FLOORS
• NEWER APPLIANCES
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• LAUNDRY AREA
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; On-street parking; Total parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Electric service by PSEG; Cesspool sewer; Cable available; Electricity available; Water available
• Home design: Single family residence; Property condition listed as actual
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Back yard; Vinyl siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Hot water heating; Oil-fired heating; No central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Eat-in kitchen; Walk-in closet(s); Washer/dryer hookup; Dining area; Basement access with partially finished space and storage; Attic with pull-down stairs, storage, and unfinished areas
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer/dryer hookup located in basement; Oil water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-284 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $349k (12.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $319k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $319k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#936 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tangier Smith Elementary School (math 43% / reading 54%, grade D, #1,181 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 755 students, 61% FRL); William Paca Middle School (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #497 of 729 statewide, top 69%, 1,009 students, 59% FRL); William Floyd High School (math 65% / reading 87%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 3,013 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 43% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 137 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $299k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $319,025 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.05%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $460,339
• List price: $399,000
• Delta: -13.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
77 Spar Dr	0.21mi	3/1.0	996 (+1%)	4mo	$425,000	$427	85
8 Lonscreek Pl	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	948 (-4%)	13mo	$427,000	$450	71
49 Shore Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	969 (-2%)	5mo	$389,000	$401	70
70 Spar Dr	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,064 (+8%)	6mo	$440,000	$414	70
129 Lakeview Dr	0.73mi	3/1.0	954 (-3%)	1mo	$515,000	$540	60
44 Edgewater Dr	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,078 (+9%)	8mo	$420,000	$390	58
9 Claremont Dr	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,075 (+9%)	11mo	$440,000	$409	58
15 Shore Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,050 (+6%)	4mo	$507,500	$483	57
57 Shore Dr	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,110 (+13%)	7mo	$240,000	$216	56
56 Stackyard Dr	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	920 (-7%)	9mo	$325,000	$353	49
8 Spar Dr	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,074 (+9%)	13mo	$430,000	$400	47
5 Vine Rd	0.64mi	3/1.0	840 (-15%)	12mo	$383,000	$456	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $199,279
• Equity at exit: $359,451

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.38×
• Total profit: $601,234
• Equity at exit: $775,169

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11951

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,190 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$546 /mo · $6,551/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$670
• Net cashflow: $-284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,550

Max offer price $348,786

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-58	-5% $-171	+0% $-284	+5% $-397	+10% $-510
Rent	-10% $-536	-5% $-410	+0% $-284	+5% $-158	+10% $-32
Rate	-1.0pp $-83	-0.5pp $-183	base $-284	+0.5pp $-388	+1.0pp $-493

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5 Cedar Rd E Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	1.0	740	$2,900	$3.92	0d	1	0.82mi
48 Eleanor Ave Mastic, NY	3.0	1.0	975	$3,500	$3.59	26d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $399,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $399,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $399,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $399,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $399,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-04-28
    listed $399,000 Active 424-char remark
18. 2005-08-01
    soldstatus $298,920
19. 2004-04-02
    soldstatus $232,500
20. 1995-12-19
    soldstatus $11,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,551 · $546/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,647 · $554/mo
• Expected delta: +$96/yr (+$8/mo · 1.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,283
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$6,551
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,063
• − Management: −$3,063
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$10,346
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,483
• After-tax cash flow: $-928/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mastic Beach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #936
• US rank: #18216

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mastic Beach, NY
• City population: 15,830
• Population (ZIP): 15,830

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.46%
• Current HPI: 829.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+3527.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $298,920 Public Records
• 2004-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $232,500 Public Records
• 1995-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,551 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.