3757 Tom Gill Rd · Penitas, TX 78576

$105,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,226 sqft · SingleFamily · 142 Days on market

Built 1985 Fair condition 8,211 sqft lot $86/sqft · 35% below area Est $163k · 35% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bed, 1 bath home in Penitas, located off Tom Gill. Practical layout in a convenient location—ideal for starters or investors.

Key facts

• 8,211 sq ft lot
• Built 1985
• Listed 142 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $420 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 3.2% in Penitas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#820 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• La Joya ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #759 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.14%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $162,671
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -35.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3101 Tom Gill Rd	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,175 (-4%)	1mo	$165,900	$141	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.35% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $59,244
• Equity at exit: $68,310

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.20×
• Total profit: $152,839
• Equity at exit: $125,915

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78576

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,575/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $420

Break-even live

Break-even rent $919

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1510 Arboledas Dr Penitas, TX	2.0	1.0	984	$1,450	$1.47	14d	1	0.63mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $105,000 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $105,000 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $105,000 Active 128 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 126 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 125 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 124 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 123 DOM
17. 2026-03-16
    price $105,000 133-char remark

    Show marketing remark (133 chars)

    2 bed, 1 bath home in Penitas, located off Tom Gill. Practical layout in a convenient location—ideal for starters or investors.

18. 2026-01-27
    listed $110,000 Active 133-char remark

    Show marketing remark (133 chars)

    2 bed, 1 bath home in Penitas, located off Tom Gill. Practical layout in a convenient location—ideal for starters or investors.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 96% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,575
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,392
• − Management: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $3,580
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$859
• After-tax cash flow: $4,179/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. Key areas for improvement include the kitchen, bathroom, and roof. Fresh paint and new fixtures would significantly enhance its appeal.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate kitchen appliances — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate kitchen countertops — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate roof — visible wear

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Resale replace kitchen cabinets and appliances — new cabinets and appliances improve functionality and aesthetics
• Resale replace bathroom fixtures — new fixtures improve functionality and aesthetics
• Both landscaping — improved landscaping enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen appliances · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen countertops · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
roof · visible wear	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$15,000–75,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale replace kitchen cabinets and appliances — new cabinets and appliances improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Resale replace bathroom fixtures — new fixtures improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both landscaping — improved landscaping enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Joya ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826130
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $27,845
• Composite: 18.65/100
• National rank: #8891
• State rank: #759 of 826 in TX

Livability — Penitas

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #820
• US rank: #14866

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Penitas, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,902

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 99% Two or more races 71%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 97%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada
• Languages at home: 4% English-only · Spanish 96%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.35%
• Current HPI: 238.1571
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $105,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $110,000 MCALLENMLS