9428 Azure Breeze Ave · Parrish, FL 34221

$332,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,217 sqft · SingleFamily · 44 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Garage $150/sqft · 17% below area Est $401k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 43 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $333k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $95 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $303k (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $303k (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.8% in Parrish — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1452 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 36d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,034/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($323k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $303,369 (8.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.23%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $401,056
• List price: $332,990
• Delta: -16.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5643 Skylight Way 5643 Skylight Way	1.00mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,323 (+5%)	3mo	$409,000	$176	47
1824 Soaring Vida St	1.02mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,323 (+5%)	4mo	$395,000	$170	47
3249 Osteen Cv	1.12mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,454 (+11%)	5mo	$406,300	$166	36
3415 70th Ct E	0.65mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,784 (-20%)	7mo	$395,000	$221	34
2662 58th Cir E	0.84mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,819 (-18%)	0mo	$399,870	$220	33
2649 58th Cir E	0.82mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,819 (-18%)	1mo	$409,185	$225	32
2654 58th Cir E	0.82mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,819 (-18%)	2mo	$398,060	$219	31
2520 58th Cir E	0.95mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,819 (-18%)	2mo	$385,380	$212	31
2626 58th Cir E	0.78mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,819 (-18%)	4mo	$398,000	$219	29
2629 58th Cir E	0.81mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,819 (-18%)	4mo	$409,730	$225	29
2543 58th Cir E	0.94mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,819 (-18%)	5mo	$398,000	$219	29
2517 58th Cir E	0.93mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,819 (-18%)	6mo	$395,000	$217	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-56,728
• Equity at exit: $49,650

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-75,746
• Equity at exit: $28,791

Cash invested: $93,237 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 14 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.4 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $326,465 ($162/sqft)
• Median days on market: 33 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +12.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1452
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,034 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,746
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$416 /mo · $4,995/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$637
• Net cashflow: $95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,913

Max offer price $332,990

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $326	-5% $210	+0% $95	+5% $-20	+10% $-135
Rent	-10% $-144	-5% $-24	+0% $95	+5% $215	+10% $335
Rate	-1.0pp $263	-0.5pp $180	base $95	+0.5pp $9	+1.0pp $-79

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,248
• Closing costs: $9,990
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6115 Blue Paloma CT Palmetto, FL	5.0	2.5	2217	$2,825	$1.27	32d	1	0.02mi
2789 89th Street Cir E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	2150	$2,450	$1.14	72d	1	1.13mi
2305 50th Street Cir E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	1996	$2,545	$1.28	16d	1	1.26mi
2706 89th Street Cir E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1637	$2,400	$1.47	35d	1	1.28mi
7127 48th Ave E Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.5	2110	$1,800	$0.85	47d	1	1.32mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $352,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family property (spec new construction)
• Exterior features: Located at 9428 Azure Breeze Ave, Parrish, FL 34221

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec new-construction home (Plan: Boston)Living area approximately 2,217

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-07-24
   days on market $332,990 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-07-23
   days on market $332,990 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-07-22
   days on market $332,990 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-07-21
   days on market $332,990 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-07-18
   days on market $332,990 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-07-18
   days on market $332,990 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-07-16
   days on market $332,990 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-07-15
   pricedays on market $332,990 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-07-13
   days on market $335,400 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-07-13
    days on market $335,400 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-07-11
    days on market $335,400 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-07-10
    days on market $335,400 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-07-09
    pricedays on market $335,400 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-07-07
    days on market $354,400 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-07-06
    days on market $354,400 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-07-05
    days on market $354,400 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-07-03
    days on market $354,400 Active 23 DOM
18. 2026-07-02
    days on market $354,400 Active 22 DOM
19. 2026-07-01
    days on market $354,400 Active 21 DOM
20. 2026-07-01
    price $354,400 Active 20 DOM
21. 2026-06-30
    days on market $352,900 Active 20 DOM
22. 2026-06-29
    days on market $352,900 Active 19 DOM
23. 2026-06-28
    days on market $352,900 Active 18 DOM
24. 2026-06-27
    days on market $352,900 Active 17 DOM
25. 2026-06-27
    days on market $352,900 Active 16 DOM
26. 2026-06-25
    days on market $352,900 Active 14 DOM
27. 2026-06-22
    days on market $352,900 Active 12 DOM
28. 2026-06-22
    days on market $352,900 Active 11 DOM
29. 2026-06-18
    days on market $352,900 Active 8 DOM
30. 2026-06-17
    days on market $352,900 Active 7 DOM
31. 2026-06-16
    days on market $352,900 Active 6 DOM
32. 2026-06-15
    days on market $352,900 Active 5 DOM
33. 2026-06-13
    days on market $352,900 Active 3 DOM
34. 2026-06-13
    listed $352,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,404
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,653
• − Property taxes: −$4,995
• − Insurance: −$1,665
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,912
• − Management: −$2,912
• − Depreciation: −$9,687
• Taxable loss: −$4,420
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,061
• After-tax cash flow: $2,206/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,085–$33,255 screening

This home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It has potential for further improvements to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Upgrading to more modern or energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's appeal to buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Updating fixtures in bathrooms can make the home more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Flooring replacement — Replacing worn-out flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Rental HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract tenants and reduce maintenance costs. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary James Tillman Elementary Magnet School D FL #1,088/2,144 Nat'l #12,785/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Parrish

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 33,296
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $352,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family property (spec new construction)
• Exterior features: Located at 9428 Azure Breeze Ave, Parrish, FL 34221

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec new-construction home (Plan: Boston)Living area approximately 2,217