47 Valley Ave · Walden, NY 12586

$429,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,497 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 646 Days on market

Built 1900 7,200 sqft lot $287/sqft · 12% above area Est $383k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully, recently renovated & refreshed, 6 room, 3 bedroom colonial bordering Tin Brook in the heart of the Village of Walden. Close to major shopping, Hannaford Supermarket, many parks, eateries,Stewart International Airport, Valley Central schools, I84 & I87 to commute. It has a gorgeous kitchen with plentiful white cabinetry, granite counters, high ceilings and recessed lights, stainless steel range, dishwasher, refrigerator & ceramic tile floors, spacious living room to gather, entertain or watch tv, formal dining room & redone lav on first level with a large deck to enjoy nature , BBQ or just relax. Upstairs there are 3 bedrooms and lovely main bath with shower/tub. Improvements include new roof, electric, new windows, new trendy wood look vinyl floors & more. Enjoy what village life has to offer. Close to all the conveniences you require for the ease and enjoyment of living.

Key facts

• 7,200 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 646 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $429k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $272 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $429k).
• Recommended offer: $378k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.5% in Walden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#587 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools D, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Valley Central School District (Montgomery) (rural): math 54% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #299 of 590 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 646 days — a 12% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $429k implies a 680% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $377,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 646 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.28%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $382,840
• List price: $429,000
• Delta: 12.06%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-51,908
• Equity at exit: $63,965

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-21,817
• Equity at exit: $37,092

Cash invested: $120,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12586

• Home prices YoY: -15.6%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 23.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,485 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,250
• Tax from tax record: −$787 /mo · $9,440/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$942
• Net cashflow: $272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,140

Max offer price $429,000

Occupancy floor 89%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,990
1× unit	1	1	$1,495
Total (3 units)			$4,485

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,250
• Closing costs: $12,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
59 Ulster Ave Walden, NY	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	14d	1	0.07mi
63 Capron St Walden, NY	3.0	1.5	1388	$2,350	$1.69	44d	1	0.12mi
42 Maple St Walden, NY	3.0	2.0	1152	$2,300	$2.00	14d	1	0.28mi

Listing history 46 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $429,000 Active 646 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $429,000 Active 645 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $429,000 Active 644 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $429,000 Active 643 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $429,000 Active 641 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $429,000 Active 638 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $429,000 Active 637 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $429,000 Active 636 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $429,000 Active 635 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $429,000 Active 632 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $429,000 Active 631 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $429,000 Active 630 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $429,000 Active 629 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $429,000 Active 628 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $429,000 Active 627 DOM
16. 2026-02-27
    price $429,000 917-char remark

    Show marketing remark (917 chars)

    Beautifully, recently renovated & refreshed, 6 room, 3 bedroom colonial bordering Tin Brook in the heart of the Village of Walden. Close to major shopping, Hannaford Supermarket, many parks, eateries,Stewart International Airport, Valley Central schools, I84 & I87 to commute. It has a gorgeous kitchen with plentiful white cabinetry, granite counters, high ceilings and recessed lights, stainless steel range, dishwasher, refrigerator & ceramic tile floors, spacious living room to gather, entertain or watch tv, formal dining room & redone lav on first level with a large deck to enjoy nature , BBQ or just relax. Upstairs there are 3 bedrooms and lovely main bath with shower/tub. Improvements include new roof, electric, new windows, new trendy wood look vinyl floors & more. Enjoy what village life has to offer. Close to all the conveniences you require for the ease and enjoyment of living.

17. 2024-09-17
    price $430,000 917-char remark

    Show marketing remark (917 chars)

    Beautifully, recently renovated & refreshed, 6 room, 3 bedroom colonial bordering Tin Brook in the heart of the Village of Walden. Close to major shopping, Hannaford Supermarket, many parks, eateries,Stewart International Airport, Valley Central schools, I84 & I87 to commute. It has a gorgeous kitchen with plentiful white cabinetry, granite counters, high ceilings and recessed lights, stainless steel range, dishwasher, refrigerator & ceramic tile floors, spacious living room to gather, entertain or watch tv, formal dining room & redone lav on first level with a large deck to enjoy nature , BBQ or just relax. Upstairs there are 3 bedrooms and lovely main bath with shower/tub. Improvements include new roof, electric, new windows, new trendy wood look vinyl floors & more. Enjoy what village life has to offer. Close to all the conveniences you require for the ease and enjoyment of living.

18. 2024-09-10
    listed $450,000 Active 917-char remark

    Show marketing remark (917 chars)

    Beautifully, recently renovated & refreshed, 6 room, 3 bedroom colonial bordering Tin Brook in the heart of the Village of Walden. Close to major shopping, Hannaford Supermarket, many parks, eateries,Stewart International Airport, Valley Central schools, I84 & I87 to commute. It has a gorgeous kitchen with plentiful white cabinetry, granite counters, high ceilings and recessed lights, stainless steel range, dishwasher, refrigerator & ceramic tile floors, spacious living room to gather, entertain or watch tv, formal dining room & redone lav on first level with a large deck to enjoy nature , BBQ or just relax. Upstairs there are 3 bedrooms and lovely main bath with shower/tub. Improvements include new roof, electric, new windows, new trendy wood look vinyl floors & more. Enjoy what village life has to offer. Close to all the conveniences you require for the ease and enjoyment of living.

19. 2020-01-18
    soldstatus $55,000 Sold 312-char remark

    Show marketing remark (312 chars)

    2 Unit property (Village of Walden has converted it to a single family) with a one bedroom and also a 2 bedroom unit. House overlooks the Tin Brook. Will require cash or a rehab loan. Incredible investment opportunity. This is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

20. 2020-01-09
    status Pending 312-char remark

    Show marketing remark (312 chars)

    2 Unit property (Village of Walden has converted it to a single family) with a one bedroom and also a 2 bedroom unit. House overlooks the Tin Brook. Will require cash or a rehab loan. Incredible investment opportunity. This is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

21. 2019-10-08
    price $64,900 312-char remark

    Show marketing remark (312 chars)

    2 Unit property (Village of Walden has converted it to a single family) with a one bedroom and also a 2 bedroom unit. House overlooks the Tin Brook. Will require cash or a rehab loan. Incredible investment opportunity. This is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

22. 2019-09-11
    historical
23. 2019-09-10
    listed $74,900 Active 312-char remark

    Show marketing remark (312 chars)

    2 Unit property (Village of Walden has converted it to a single family) with a one bedroom and also a 2 bedroom unit. House overlooks the Tin Brook. Will require cash or a rehab loan. Incredible investment opportunity. This is a Fannie Mae Homepath Property. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,

24. 2019-08-02
    price $84,900
25. 2019-05-22
    price $94,900
26. 2019-04-15
    listed $108,900 Active
27. 2017-04-30
    historical
28. 2017-01-19
    status Active
29. 2017-01-01
    historical
30. 2016-11-04
    status Active
31. 2016-10-21
    historical
32. 2016-01-27
    status Active
33. 2015-12-31
    historical
34. 2015-10-02
    status Active
35. 2015-10-01
    historical
36. 2015-04-06
    status Active
37. 2015-04-01
    historical
38. 2014-11-06
    price $178,900
39. 2014-10-06
    listed $179,900 Active
40. 2001-07-13
    soldstatus $96,000
41. 2001-06-28
    soldstatus $93,000
42. 2001-06-20
    price $99,900
43. 2001-06-20
    historical
44. 2000-09-23
    listed $93,000
45. 1996-01-29
    soldstatus $52,000
46. 1983-10-25
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,440 · $787/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,440 · $787/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,031
• − Property taxes: −$9,440
• − Insurance: −$2,812
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,306
• − Management: −$4,306
• − Depreciation: −$12,480
• Taxable loss: −$3,554
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$853
• After-tax cash flow: $4,122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Central School District (Montgomery)
• NCES district ID: 3619680
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $69,186
• Composite: 47.53/100
• National rank: #2271
• State rank: #299 of 590 in NY

Livability — Walden

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #587
• US rank: #10610

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime C Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Walden, NY
• City population: 12,874
• Population (ZIP): 12,874

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 9% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.44%
• Current HPI: 315.1034
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2760.0% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $429,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-17 Price Changed $430,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-10 Listed $450,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-18 Sold (MLS) $55,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-09 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-08 Price Changed $64,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-11 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-10 Listed $74,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-02 Price Changed $84,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-22 Price Changed $94,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-15 Listed $108,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-30 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-19 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-04 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-21 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-27 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-31 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-02 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-06 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-06 Price Changed $178,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-06 Listed $179,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $96,000 Public Records
• 2001-06-28 Sold (MLS) $93,000 HGMLS
• 2001-06-20 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2001-06-20 Price Changed $99,900 HGMLS
• 2000-09-23 Listed $93,000 HGMLS
• 1996-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 1983-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,440 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.