811 4th Ave NE · Devils Lake, ND 58301

$90,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,798 sqft · Other · 45 Days on market

Built 1920 5,720 sqft lot ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Large dining room
• Kitchen
• Laundry room

Tags

• LARGE DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• 3 STORAGE SHEDS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Cooling present
• Interior features: Partial basement; Basement present

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $315 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#97 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Devils Lake 1 (town): math 34% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #35 of 53 in ND (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Devils Lake High School (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #128 of 144 statewide, top 90%, 500 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 34% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Devils Lake 1 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,300 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.00%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $5,528
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $30,838
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58301

• Home prices YoY: -28.9%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,242 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,880/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $315

Break-even live

Break-even rent $843

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $90,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $90,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $90,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $90,000 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    listed $90,000 Active
16. 2025-08-06
    price $100,000
17. 2025-07-10
    price $125,000
18. 2025-04-15
    listed $130,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,880 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,880 · $157/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,904
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,880
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,192
• − Management: −$1,192
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $2,530
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$607
• After-tax cash flow: $3,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Devils Lake 1
• NCES district ID: 3805040
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $47,687
• Composite: 29.72/100
• National rank: #6448
• State rank: #35 of 53 in ND

Livability — Devils Lake

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #8421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Devils Lake, ND
• Population (ZIP): 10,046

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,910 people
• By 2030: 12,089 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 12,568 · +5.5%
• By 2050: 13,136 · +10.3%
• By 2075: 16,531 · +38.8%
• By 2100: 20,500 · +72.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Native American 11% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 30% Lithuanian 3% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.3) · D 29.1% · R 69.3% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.3pp toward R · 2008: -1.0pp · 2024: -40.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.3 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+32.8 2012: R+10.0 2008: R+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.81%
• Current HPI: 220.5598
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

-30.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $90,000 GFAAR
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $100,000 GFAAR
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $125,000 GFAAR
• 2025-04-15 Listed $130,000 GFAAR

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,880 · +35.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.