2312 NE 37th St · Ocala, FL 34479

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 988 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 299 Days on market

Built 1979 10,019 sqft lot Est $180k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. * Prime Ocala Location * Single-family 3-Bedroom, 2-Bath block home featuring a spacious, fenced backyard with a large screened-in porch, playhouse, and storage shed. The welcoming front porch is surrounded by mature landscaping for year-round curb appeal. Conveniently located near Publix and less than five miles from downtown Ocala’s dining, entertainment, and live music. Recent upgrades include a new roof (2025) and new water heater (2025). An as-is appraisal dated 6/9/2025 is available to provide peace of mind for prospective buyers. Opportunity exists to add personal updates and build equity through future improvements.

Key facts

• Tree fort
• Screened in porch
• Spacious backyard

Tags

• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• TREE FORT
• CHICKEN COOP
• PLAYHOUSE
• SHED
• SCREENED IN PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5 ($59/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (19.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (19.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.2% in Ocala — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 299 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $170k implies a 286% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,469 (19.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 299 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.12%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,816
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3216 NE 22nd Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0	988 (0%)	3mo	$182,000	$184	81
2590 NE 42nd Pl	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,092 (+10%)	3mo	$180,000	$165	60
2645 NE 44th St	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,092 (+10%)	2mo	$199,000	$182	52
2785 NE 45th St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,092 (+10%)	5mo	$209,990	$192	46
2705 NE 43rd Pl	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,092 (+10%)	22mo	$160,000	$147	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-27,269
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-23,490
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34479

• Home prices YoY: -31.0%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,375 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,425/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,368

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3650 NE 41st St Unit A Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,025	$1.37	21d	1	1.19mi
3800 NE 41st St Unit C Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	770	$1,049	$1.36	21d	1	1.31mi
2205 NE 14th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	1.0	1020	$1,345	$1.32	21d	1	1.44mi
NE 8th Ter Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	840	$1,150	$1.37	13d	2	1.48mi
2836 NE 8th Ter Unit 2836 Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	840	$1,150	$1.37	21d	1	1.49mi
2818 NE 8th Ter Unit 2818 Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	840	$1,150	$1.37	21d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-06
   status Active
3. 2026-01-28
   status Pending
4. 2025-09-15
   price $170,000
5. 2025-06-24
   listed $185,000 Active
6. 1996-06-17
   soldstatus $44,000
7. 1995-08-17
   soldstatus $39,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,425 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,425 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$1,425
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,320
• − Management: −$1,320
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$2,886
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$693
• After-tax cash flow: $752/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ocala

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #8461

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 263,375
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,264
• Household income: $54,283
• Rent vs Own: 25.6% rent · 74.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 664.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 14% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Estonian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.70%
• Current HPI: 248.7063
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+326.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-24 Listed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records
• 1995-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $39,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,425 · +17.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.