933 Montauk Dr · Forked River, NJ 08731

$1,099,999

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,412 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1970 8,712 sqft lot $456/sqft · 8% above area Est $1020k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +4.0/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 933 Montauk Drive, a beautifully upgraded 4-bedroom, 3 1/2 bath waterfront residence offering the perfect blend of luxury, efficiency, and coastal lifestyle. This move-in-ready home has been thoughtfully enhanced throughout, featuring a gourmet kitchen with high-end appliances, marble countertops, custom backsplash, and a spacious walk-in pantry. Recessed lighting flows seamlessly through the home, while all bathrooms have been tastefully updated with custom finishes. The primary suite is complemented by European-style custom closets and a private fiberglass roof deck--ideal for enjoying the waterfront setting. Additional interior highlights include a finished, heated garage with custom cabinetry, built-in safe, and electric vehicle charger, as well as the crawl space has foam insulation for added efficiency. A tankless water heater and fully owned solar panels further enhance the home's energy-conscious design. Step outside to a true entertainer's backyard, complete with a stamped concrete and custom paver patio and an expansive outdoor kitchen with built-in amenities. For boating enthusiasts, the property features a boat lift rated for up to 18,000 lbs along with a dedicated jet ski lift. Upgraded exterior lighting, enhanced electrical systems, and a large storage shed complete the outdoor space. A rare opportunity to own a fully upgraded waterfront home designed for both everyday living and exceptional entertaining.

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1970

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $1.10M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($60k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($16k rent vs $1.10M).
• Recommended offer: $1.07M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 3.2% in Forked River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#464 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lacey Township School District (suburban): math 22% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #299 of 472 in NJ (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 190 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $33k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $308k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.07M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $949k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,066,999 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.06%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,020,156
• List price: $1,099,999
• Delta: 7.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
816 Bowline Dr	0.32mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,272 (-6%)	1mo	$873,750	$385	68
908 Boxer Dr	0.08mi	3/3.5	2,524 (+5%)	24mo	$1,075,000	$426	67
1266 Capstan Dr	0.38mi	3/3.0	2,370 (-2%)	17mo	$860,000	$363	61
709 Richmond Dr	0.26mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,700 (+12%)	1mo	$800,000	$296	58
1030 Montauk Dr	0.25mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,617 (+8%)	9mo	$1,050,000	$401	56
836 Spar Dr	0.47mi	3/2.5	2,194 (-9%)	5mo	$936,000	$427	53
1204 Capstan Dr	0.58mi	3/2.5	2,410 (-0%)	22mo	$819,000	$340	48
833 Windward Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	2,096 (-13%)	12mo	$879,123	$419	47
510 Conifer Dr	0.58mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,675 (+11%)	1mo	$537,000	$201	45
621 Sunrise Blvd	0.45mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,080 (-14%)	18mo	$507,500	$244	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $139,160
• Equity at exit: $164,013

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $530,660
• Equity at exit: $95,108

Cash invested: $308,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08731

• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $16,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,769
• Tax from tax record: −$1,007 /mo · $12,089/yr
• Insurance: −$458
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,360
• Net cashflow: $4,979

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,697

Max offer price $1,099,999

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $275,000
• Closing costs: $33,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
406 Lawrence Dr Lanoka Harbor, NJ	3.0	2.0	1836	$16,000	$8.71	1d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-04-21
   listed $1,099,999 Active 1454-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1454 chars)

   Welcome to 933 Montauk Drive, a beautifully upgraded 4-bedroom, 3 1/2 bath waterfront residence offering the perfect blend of luxury, efficiency, and coastal lifestyle. This move-in-ready home has been thoughtfully enhanced throughout, featuring a gourmet kitchen with high-end appliances, marble countertops, custom backsplash, and a spacious walk-in pantry. Recessed lighting flows seamlessly through the home, while all bathrooms have been tastefully updated with custom finishes. The primary suite is complemented by European-style custom closets and a private fiberglass roof deck--ideal for enjoying the waterfront setting. Additional interior highlights include a finished, heated garage with custom cabinetry, built-in safe, and electric vehicle charger, as well as the crawl space has foam insulation for added efficiency. A tankless water heater and fully owned solar panels further enhance the home's energy-conscious design. Step outside to a true entertainer's backyard, complete with a stamped concrete and custom paver patio and an expansive outdoor kitchen with built-in amenities. For boating enthusiasts, the property features a boat lift rated for up to 18,000 lbs along with a dedicated jet ski lift. Upgraded exterior lighting, enhanced electrical systems, and a large storage shed complete the outdoor space. A rare opportunity to own a fully upgraded waterfront home designed for both everyday living and exceptional entertaining.

2. 2026-04-18
   historical $1,099,999 1454-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1454 chars)

   Welcome to 933 Montauk Drive, a beautifully upgraded 4-bedroom, 3 1/2 bath waterfront residence offering the perfect blend of luxury, efficiency, and coastal lifestyle. This move-in-ready home has been thoughtfully enhanced throughout, featuring a gourmet kitchen with high-end appliances, marble countertops, custom backsplash, and a spacious walk-in pantry. Recessed lighting flows seamlessly through the home, while all bathrooms have been tastefully updated with custom finishes. The primary suite is complemented by European-style custom closets and a private fiberglass roof deck--ideal for enjoying the waterfront setting. Additional interior highlights include a finished, heated garage with custom cabinetry, built-in safe, and electric vehicle charger, as well as the crawl space has foam insulation for added efficiency. A tankless water heater and fully owned solar panels further enhance the home's energy-conscious design. Step outside to a true entertainer's backyard, complete with a stamped concrete and custom paver patio and an expansive outdoor kitchen with built-in amenities. For boating enthusiasts, the property features a boat lift rated for up to 18,000 lbs along with a dedicated jet ski lift. Upgraded exterior lighting, enhanced electrical systems, and a large storage shed complete the outdoor space. A rare opportunity to own a fully upgraded waterfront home designed for both everyday living and exceptional entertaining.

3. 2025-01-29
   listed $1,049,000 Active
4. 2023-11-08
   soldstatus $949,000
5. 2023-10-31
   soldstatus $949,000 Closed
6. 2023-09-21
   status Pending
7. 2023-09-07
   status Pending
8. 2023-08-23
   listed $949,000 Active
9. 2019-01-30
   soldstatus $195,000
10. 2019-01-18
    soldstatus $195,000 Sold
11. 2019-01-18
    soldstatus $195,000 Closed
12. 2018-12-21
    historical
13. 2018-12-21
    status Pending
14. 2018-12-17
    historical Under Contract - Attorney Review
15. 2018-11-29
    status Active
16. 2018-11-29
    status Active
17. 2018-10-17
    historical
18. 2018-10-16
    status Pending
19. 2018-09-14
    status Active
20. 2018-09-12
    historical
21. 2018-08-30
    price $219,000
22. 2018-08-30
    price $219,000
23. 2018-07-02
    status Active
24. 2018-07-02
    status Active
25. 2018-06-29
    historical
26. 2018-06-29
    historical
27. 2018-06-28
    listed $239,000 Active
28. 2018-06-28
    listed $239,000 Active
29. 2018-04-29
    historical
30. 2018-04-28
    historical
31. 2018-02-10
    price $287,700
32. 2018-02-10
    price $287,700
33. 2018-01-29
    listed $299,900 Active
34. 2018-01-29
    listed $299,900 Active
35. 1985-01-01
    soldstatus $108,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,089 · $1,007/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $19,739 · $1,645/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,651/yr (+$638/mo · 63.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $192,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$61,617
• − Property taxes: −$12,089
• − Insurance: −$10,618
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$15,360
• − Management: −$15,360
• − Depreciation: −$32,000
• Taxable income: $44,956
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$10,789
• After-tax cash flow: $48,961/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lacey Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408100
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,331
• Composite: 30.42/100
• National rank: #6242
• State rank: #299 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Forked River

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #464
• US rank: #17753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 21,136

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -328.91%
• Current HPI: 352.355
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+918.5% since first listed

35 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $1,099,999 MOMLS
• 2026-04-18 Coming Soon $1,099,999 MOMLS
• 2025-01-29 Listed $1,049,000 MOMLS
• 2023-11-08 Sold (Public Records) $949,000 Public Records
• 2023-10-31 Sold (MLS) $949,000 MOMLS
• 2023-09-21 Pending — MOMLS
• 2023-09-07 Pending — MOMLS
• 2023-08-23 Listed $949,000 MOMLS
• 2019-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2019-01-18 Sold (MLS) $195,000 CJMLS
• 2019-01-18 Sold (MLS) $195,000 MOMLS
• 2018-12-21 Delisted — CJMLS
• 2018-12-21 Pending — MOMLS
• 2018-12-17 Contingent — CJMLS
• 2018-11-29 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2018-11-29 Relisted — CJMLS
• 2018-10-17 Delisted — CJMLS
• 2018-10-16 Pending — MOMLS
• 2018-09-14 Relisted — CJMLS
• 2018-09-12 Delisted — CJMLS
• 2018-08-30 Price Changed $219,000 MOMLS
• 2018-08-30 Price Changed $219,000 CJMLS
• 2018-07-02 Relisted — CJMLS
• 2018-07-02 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2018-06-29 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2018-06-29 Delisted — CJMLS
• 2018-06-28 Listed $239,000 CJMLS
• 2018-06-28 Listed $239,000 MOMLS
• 2018-04-29 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2018-04-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-02-10 Price Changed $287,700 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-02-10 Price Changed $287,700 MOMLS
• 2018-01-29 Listed $299,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-01-29 Listed $299,900 MOMLS
• 1985-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $108,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,089 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.