23067 Cragon Rd · Primera, TX 78552

$134,500

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,739 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1985 0.49 ac lot $77/sqft · 41% below area Est $227k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Unlock the potential of this spacious 4-bedroom, 4-bath property situated on nearly half an acre (0.49 acres). Featuring a unique U-shaped driveway, a detached work shed, and an oversized lot with plenty of room for future improvements, this property offers endless possibilities. Whether you’re an investor searching for your next project, a flipper looking to add value, or a buyer ready to customize a home to your vision, this property is packed with opportunity. Bring your ideas and see the potential for yourself!

Key facts

• Detached work shed
• U-shaped driveway
• Oversized lot

Tags

• U-SHAPED DRIVEWAY
• DETACHED WORK SHED
• OVERSIZED LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $134k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $472 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $134k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,263 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime D-.
• Harlingen CISD (urban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #647 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 534 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $930 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,482 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.03%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $226,767
• List price: $134,500
• Delta: -40.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23717 Sun Chase Cir	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,697 (-2%)	1mo	$240,000	$141	54
17200 Mandarin Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,487 (-14%)	2mo	$205,000	$138	35
17282 Mandarin Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,547 (-11%)	16mo	$229,400	$148	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,075
• Equity at exit: $20,054

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $21,374
• Equity at exit: $11,629

Cash invested: $37,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78552

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 534
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,775 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$705
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,028/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $472

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,178

Max offer price $134,500

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,625
• Closing costs: $4,035
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17931 Spruce St Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,850	$1.44	43d	1	0.51mi
1007 El Paso Cir Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1201	$1,600	$1.33	43d	1	0.56mi
23861 Ellie Ln Harlingen, TX	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,650	$1.35	21d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,500 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,500 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,500 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,500 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $134,500 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $134,500 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,500 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,500 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $134,500 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,500 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 520-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $134,500 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-02-26
    listed $135,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,028 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,461 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: +$433/yr (+$36/mo · 21.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,298
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,534
• − Property taxes: −$2,028
• − Insurance: −$672
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,704
• − Management: −$1,704
• − Depreciation: −$3,913
• Taxable income: $3,743
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$898
• After-tax cash flow: $4,762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlingen CISD
• NCES district ID: 4822530
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,182
• Composite: 24.94/100
• National rank: #7566
• State rank: #647 of 826 in TX

Livability — Primera

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1263
• US rank: #21994

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Primera, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,332
• Household income: $69,811
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% Two or more races 31% White 16% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 49% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.61%
• Current HPI: 197.1906
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.87%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Listed $135,000 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,028 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.