Sentosa Plan · New Braunfels, TX 78130

$236,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · SingleFamily · 512 Days on market

↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Cottage Collection offers a variety of new single-family homes for sale at the Parkside masterplan community in New Braunfels, TX. Homeowners will enjoy onsite amenities in Parkside including a community pool, park and playscapes. The location puts residents close to great shopping, dining and entertainment at the Town Center at Creekside, as well as outdoor recreation at the Comal and Guadalupe Rivers. Children will attend schools in the well-rated Comal Independent School District, while the community is situated along TX-46, providing easy access to both IH-35 and I-10.

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Community pool
• Well-rated schools

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• WELL-RATED SCHOOLS
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

🏗️ New construction. The $236,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $271,451.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $237k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-436 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.4% in New Braunfels — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1896 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 512 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,264 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 512 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.88%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,451
• List price: $236,999
• Delta: -12.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1551 Silver Crk	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+2%)	1mo	$222,999	$139	76
2403 Shady Grv	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+2%)	1mo	$236,999	$148	75
2411 Shady Grv	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,600 (+2%)	2mo	$226,999	$142	74
2136 Sinclair Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,553 (-1%)	3mo	$229,000	$147	65
762 Andora	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,581 (+0%)	2mo	$250,000	$158	64
525 Tom Kemp Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,594 (+1%)	1mo	$231,000	$145	62
208 Mistflower	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+7%)	0mo	$243,000	$145	54
2407 Shady Grv	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-11%)	2mo	$218,259	$156	54
2415 Shady Grv	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-11%)	2mo	$223,999	$160	53
2404 Shady Grv	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-11%)	4mo	$261,999	$187	53
734 Wolfeton Way	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,364 (-13%)	2mo	$239,900	$176	50
2273 Falcon	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,364 (-13%)	2mo	$249,900	$183	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-77,073
• Equity at exit: $40,474

10-year hold

• IRR: -56.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.62×
• Total profit: $-123,405
• Equity at exit: $23,470

Cash invested: $76,006 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78130

• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 1896
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,823 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,424
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$339 /mo · $4,072/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $-436

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,375

Max offer price $208,354

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,863
• Closing costs: $8,144
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2421 Sweet Olive New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$1,750	$0.90	20d	1	0.04mi
2505 Sweet Olive New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,590	$0.98	2d	1	0.05mi
2540 Sweet Olive New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,650	$1.15	24d	1	0.11mi
1236 Treehouse Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,795	$1.23	18d	1	0.12mi
1220 Treehouse Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	2120	$1,896	$0.89	44d	1	0.13mi
1212 Treehouse Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1687	$1,706	$1.01	22d	1	0.13mi
2439 Lake Hls New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$1,816	$0.93	22d	1	0.14mi
2439 Lake Hls New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$1,590	$0.82	4d	1	0.14mi
2421 Double Oak Dr New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,600	$0.98	4d	1	0.17mi
2436 Hunter Peak New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$1,800	$0.92	12d	1	0.21mi
1417 White Willow New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,550	$1.08	22d	1	0.21mi
2436 Lost Creek Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,495	$1.18	44d	1	0.30mi
2440 Lost Creek Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,500	$1.07	44d	1	0.30mi
2450 Legends Crk New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,500	$1.18	11d	1	0.36mi
2441 Legends Crk New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,500	$1.18	3d	1	0.37mi
1543 Silver Crk New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,545	$1.22	4d	1	0.38mi
2243 Avery Vlg New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,450	$1.11	3d	1	0.39mi
2237 Avery Vlg New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,595	$1.23	3d	1	0.40mi
2408 Shady Grv New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,913	$1.20	24d	1	0.40mi
2416 Shady Grv New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,773	$1.40	24d	1	0.40mi
733 Wolfeton Way New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1334	$1,695	$1.27	24d	1	0.41mi
2411 Shady Grv New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,595	$1.00	15d	1	0.42mi
2407 Shady Grv New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,575	$1.12	24d	1	0.43mi
2415 Shady Grv New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,545	$1.10	44d	1	0.43mi
2213 Avery Vlg New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,595	$1.23	44d	1	0.43mi
2123 Dodge Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	2243	$2,020	$0.90	3d	1	0.50mi
758 Great Oaks Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$1,695	$1.09	44d	1	0.51mi
364 Huntsman Way New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,750	$1.26	44d	1	0.51mi
756 Guna Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1594	$1,980	$1.24	44d	1	0.53mi
2118 Silver Maple New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,700	$1.41	4d	1	0.59mi
603 Tom Kemp Dr New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	1754	$1,895	$1.08	22d	1	0.59mi
655 Tom Kemp Dr New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	1758	$1,850	$1.05	44d	1	0.64mi
659 Tom Kemp Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1334	$1,650	$1.24	24d	1	0.65mi
663 Tom Kemp Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,595	$1.17	22d	1	0.65mi
663 Tom Kemp Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,595	$1.17	44d	1	0.65mi
2238 Falcon Way New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,695	$1.24	4d	1	0.69mi
2238 Falcon Way New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,695	$1.24	12d	1	0.69mi
146 Texas Thistle New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1494	$1,750	$1.17	44d	1	0.73mi
323 Mistflower New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	1822	$1,895	$1.04	2d	1	0.79mi
326 Mistflower New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,695	$1.12	24d	1	0.81mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $236,999 Active 512 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $236,999 Active 511 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $236,999 Active 510 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $236,999 Active 509 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $236,999 Active 507 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $236,999 Active 503 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $236,999 Active 502 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $236,999 Active 501 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $236,999 Active 498 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $236,999 Active 497 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 377-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $236,999 Active 496 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $236,999 Active 495 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $236,999 Active 494 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $236,999 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    The Cottage Collection offers a variety of new single-family homes for sale at the Parkside masterplan community in New Braunfels, TX. Homeowners will enjoy onsite amenities in Parkside including a community pool, park and playscapes. The location puts residents close to great shopping, dining and entertainment at the Town Center at Creekside, as well as outdoor recreation at the Comal and Guadalupe Rivers. Children will attend schools in the well-rated Comal Independent School District, while the community is situated along TX-46, providing easy access to both IH-35 and I-10.

16. 2026-04-17
    price $240,999 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    The Cottage Collection offers a variety of new single-family homes for sale at the Parkside masterplan community in New Braunfels, TX. Homeowners will enjoy onsite amenities in Parkside including a community pool, park and playscapes. The location puts residents close to great shopping, dining and entertainment at the Town Center at Creekside, as well as outdoor recreation at the Comal and Guadalupe Rivers. Children will attend schools in the well-rated Comal Independent School District, while the community is situated along TX-46, providing easy access to both IH-35 and I-10.

17. 2025-11-28
    price $267,999 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    The Cottage Collection offers a variety of new single-family homes for sale at the Parkside masterplan community in New Braunfels, TX. Homeowners will enjoy onsite amenities in Parkside including a community pool, park and playscapes. The location puts residents close to great shopping, dining and entertainment at the Town Center at Creekside, as well as outdoor recreation at the Comal and Guadalupe Rivers. Children will attend schools in the well-rated Comal Independent School District, while the community is situated along TX-46, providing easy access to both IH-35 and I-10.

18. 2025-10-21
    price $265,999 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    The Cottage Collection offers a variety of new single-family homes for sale at the Parkside masterplan community in New Braunfels, TX. Homeowners will enjoy onsite amenities in Parkside including a community pool, park and playscapes. The location puts residents close to great shopping, dining and entertainment at the Town Center at Creekside, as well as outdoor recreation at the Comal and Guadalupe Rivers. Children will attend schools in the well-rated Comal Independent School District, while the community is situated along TX-46, providing easy access to both IH-35 and I-10.

19. 2025-09-16
    price $270,999 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    The Cottage Collection offers a variety of new single-family homes for sale at the Parkside masterplan community in New Braunfels, TX. Homeowners will enjoy onsite amenities in Parkside including a community pool, park and playscapes. The location puts residents close to great shopping, dining and entertainment at the Town Center at Creekside, as well as outdoor recreation at the Comal and Guadalupe Rivers. Children will attend schools in the well-rated Comal Independent School District, while the community is situated along TX-46, providing easy access to both IH-35 and I-10.

20. 2025-09-15
    price $240,999 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    The Cottage Collection offers a variety of new single-family homes for sale at the Parkside masterplan community in New Braunfels, TX. Homeowners will enjoy onsite amenities in Parkside including a community pool, park and playscapes. The location puts residents close to great shopping, dining and entertainment at the Town Center at Creekside, as well as outdoor recreation at the Comal and Guadalupe Rivers. Children will attend schools in the well-rated Comal Independent School District, while the community is situated along TX-46, providing easy access to both IH-35 and I-10.

21. 2025-09-10
    price $245,999 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    The Cottage Collection offers a variety of new single-family homes for sale at the Parkside masterplan community in New Braunfels, TX. Homeowners will enjoy onsite amenities in Parkside including a community pool, park and playscapes. The location puts residents close to great shopping, dining and entertainment at the Town Center at Creekside, as well as outdoor recreation at the Comal and Guadalupe Rivers. Children will attend schools in the well-rated Comal Independent School District, while the community is situated along TX-46, providing easy access to both IH-35 and I-10.

22. 2025-01-22
    listed $251,999 Active 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    The Cottage Collection offers a variety of new single-family homes for sale at the Parkside masterplan community in New Braunfels, TX. Homeowners will enjoy onsite amenities in Parkside including a community pool, park and playscapes. The location puts residents close to great shopping, dining and entertainment at the Town Center at Creekside, as well as outdoor recreation at the Comal and Guadalupe Rivers. Children will attend schools in the well-rated Comal Independent School District, while the community is situated along TX-46, providing easy access to both IH-35 and I-10.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,872
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,072
• − Insurance: −$1,357
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,750
• − Management: −$1,750
• − Depreciation: −$7,897
• Taxable loss: −$10,159
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,438
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,794/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Braunfels

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #925

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 144,962
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 104,009
• Household income: $83,064
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2912.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -190.61%
• Current HPI: 173.7128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.97%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $236,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $240,999 Zillow
• 2025-11-28 Price Changed $267,999 Zillow
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $265,999 Zillow
• 2025-09-16 Price Changed $270,999 Zillow
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $240,999 Zillow
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $245,999 Zillow
• 2025-01-22 Listed $251,999 Zillow