13008 Empress Jewel Trl · Ruskin, FL 34219

$306,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,448 sqft · SingleFamily · 25 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $211/sqft · 8% below area Est $333k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

In this single-story home, the kitchen, dining room and family room cohesively flow together with a contemporary open floorplan. The adjacent owner's suite offers a comfortable place to relax with a private bathroom and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms provide space for the rest of the family.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Private bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $306k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-110 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.2% in Ruskin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2991 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $253,779 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.54%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $332,891
• List price: $306,000
• Delta: -8.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13126 Empress Jewel Trl	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,448 (0%)	13mo	$299,900	$207	82
13139 Empress Jewel Trl	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,448 (0%)	15mo	$309,900	$214	81
13146 Empress Jewel Trl	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,448 (0%)	15mo	$314,900	$217	79
12414 Sweet Angel Aura Way Ct	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,448 (0%)	16mo	$314,900	$217	77
13431 Camelot Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,455 (+0%)	1mo	$299,999	$206	74
13513 Camelot Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+0%)	1mo	$299,999	$207	73
13224 Sunset Sapphire Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,448 (0%)	21mo	$299,900	$207	71
12969 Shining Blue Nile Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+7%)	14mo	$324,900	$209	68
12442 Radiant Crystal Rose	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+7%)	12mo	$304,250	$196	65
13819 Sawmill St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+4%)	4mo	$303,000	$202	64
12214 Radiant Gem Trl	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+7%)	16mo	$314,900	$203	58
13012 Merlot Sunstone Cv	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+7%)	22mo	$334,900	$215	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-63,980
• Equity at exit: $45,626

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-93,308
• Equity at exit: $26,457

Cash invested: $85,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 29 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 34.8 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $311,999 ($212/sqft)
• Median days on market: 93 d
• This list price: 41% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2991
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,538 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,605
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$382 /mo · $4,590/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $-110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,677

Max offer price $290,106

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $102	-5% $-4	+0% $-110	+5% $-216	+10% $-321
Rent	-10% $-310	-5% $-210	+0% $-110	+5% $-10	+10% $91
Rate	-1.0pp $44	-0.5pp $-32	base $-110	+0.5pp $-189	+1.0pp $-270

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,500
• Closing costs: $9,180
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13441 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL	3.0	3.0	1747	$2,295	$1.31	80d	1	0.39mi
13420 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1767	$2,095	$1.19	66d	1	0.39mi
13524 Camelot Ct Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1853	$2,350	$1.27	3d	1	0.58mi
13207 Forge Ave Parrish, FL	2.0	2.5	1205	$2,000	$1.66	10d	1	0.77mi
13159 Stable Pl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1404	$2,100	$1.50	1d	1	0.82mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $306,000 Active 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $306,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $306,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $306,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $306,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $306,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $306,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $306,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $306,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $306,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $306,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $306,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $306,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $306,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $306,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $306,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,453
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,141
• − Property taxes: −$4,590
• − Insurance: −$1,530
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,436
• − Management: −$2,436
• − Depreciation: −$8,902
• Taxable loss: −$6,582
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,580
• After-tax cash flow: $261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,240–$21,720 screening

This single-story home features a contemporary open floorplan with good condition and minimal repairs needed. The property is move-in ready with a good resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Replace the ceiling fan in the living room — A modern ceiling fan can improve the rental appeal and comfort of the space. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Virgil Mills Elementary School B+ FL #450/2,144 Nat'l #4,366/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B