13008 Empress Jewel Trl · Ruskin, FL 34219

$306,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,448 sqft · SingleFamily · 24 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $303k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

In this single-story home, the kitchen, dining room and family room cohesively flow together with a contemporary open floorplan. The adjacent owner's suite offers a comfortable place to relax with a private bathroom and walk-in closet, while two additional bedrooms provide space for the rest of the family.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Private bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $306,000

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family residence (Annapolis plan); New construction, spec home
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,448 (interior size specified)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $306k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-802/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,226 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.94%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $302,632
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13126 Empress Jewel Trl	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,448 (0%)	10mo	$299,900	$207	85
13139 Empress Jewel Trl	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,448 (0%)	12mo	$309,900	$214	84
13146 Empress Jewel Trl	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,448 (0%)	12mo	$314,900	$217	82
12414 Sweet Angel Aura Way Ct	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,448 (0%)	13mo	$314,900	$217	79
13224 Sunset Sapphire Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,448 (0%)	18mo	$299,900	$207	73
12969 Shining Blue Nile Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+7%)	11mo	$324,900	$209	70
12442 Radiant Crystal Rose	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+7%)	9mo	$304,250	$196	68
13241 Sunset Sapphire Ct	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,448 (0%)	19mo	$299,900	$207	68
13819 Sawmill St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+4%)	1mo	$303,000	$202	66
13012 Merlot Sunstone Cv	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+7%)	19mo	$334,900	$215	58
13035 Merlot Sunstone Cv	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+7%)	19mo	$325,900	$210	55
13149 Merlot Sunstone Cv	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+7%)	19mo	$310,000	$199	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-61,398
• Equity at exit: $45,626

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-88,144
• Equity at exit: $26,457

Cash invested: $85,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,592 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,605
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$382 /mo · $4,590/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $-67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,677

Max offer price $296,332

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $145	-5% $39	+0% $-67	+5% $-173	+10% $-278
Rent	-10% $-272	-5% $-169	+0% $-67	+5% $36	+10% $138
Rate	-1.0pp $87	-0.5pp $11	base $-67	+0.5pp $-146	+1.0pp $-227

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,500
• Closing costs: $9,180
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13420 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1767	$2,250	$1.27	4d	1	0.39mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $306,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $306,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $306,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $306,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $306,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $306,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $306,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $306,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $306,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $306,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $306,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $306,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $306,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $306,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $306,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,107
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,141
• − Property taxes: −$4,590
• − Insurance: −$1,530
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,489
• − Management: −$2,489
• − Depreciation: −$8,902
• Taxable loss: −$6,033
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,448
• After-tax cash flow: $646/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home features a contemporary open floorplan with good condition and minimal repairs needed. The property is move-in ready with a good resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value.
• Rental Replace the ceiling fan in the living room — A modern ceiling fan can improve the rental appeal and comfort of the space.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Replace the ceiling fan in the living room — A modern ceiling fan can improve the rental appeal and comfort of the space. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B