1027 Arbor Dr · Beasley, TX 77417

$274,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,438 sqft · Land · 101 Days on market

Built 2025 5,400 sqft lot $191/sqft · 7% below area Est $296k · 7% under $88/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Costa! This charming ranch-style home features an open-concept kitchen, café, and family room. Enjoy outdoor entertaining on the covered patio. The owner's suite provides a relaxing retreat, complemented by two additional bedrooms, a bathroom, and a two-car garage. Flexible floor plan with options to personalize. Offerings vary by location; check with the community agent for features and upgrades.

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Flexible floor plan
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO
• OWNER'S SUITE
• FLEXIBLE FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 5.4% in Beasley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,273 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $237,500 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.58%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $296,478
• List price: $274,990
• Delta: -7.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $56,713
• Equity at exit: $141,894

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.24×
• Total profit: $172,648
• Equity at exit: $234,072

Cash invested: $76,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77417

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,375 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,559/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$88
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,246

Max offer price $274,990

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $257	-5% $180	+0% $102	+5% $24	+10% $-54
Rent	-10% $-86	-5% $8	+0% $102	+5% $195	+10% $289
Rate	-1.0pp $240	-0.5pp $172	base $102	+0.5pp $30	+1.0pp $-42

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,748
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10730 Sky Creek Ln Beasley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1869	$2,375	$1.27	0d	1	0.65mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $88 · $1,056/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $274,990 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,990 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,990 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,990 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,990 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $274,990 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $274,990 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $274,990 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $274,990 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $274,990 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $274,990 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $274,990 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $274,990 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,990 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-03-29
    price $289,990 422-char remark

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    Welcome to the Costa! This charming ranch-style home features an open-concept kitchen, café, and family room. Enjoy outdoor entertaining on the covered patio. The owner's suite provides a relaxing retreat, complemented by two additional bedrooms, a bathroom, and a two-car garage. Flexible floor plan with options to personalize. Offerings vary by location; check with the community agent for features and upgrades.

16. 2026-03-28
    price $289,990 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Welcome to the Costa! This charming ranch-style home features an open-concept kitchen, café, and family room. Enjoy outdoor entertaining on the covered patio. The owner’s suite provides a relaxing retreat, complemented by two additional bedrooms, a bathroom, and a two-car garage. Flexible floor plan with options to personalize. Offerings vary by location; check with the community agent for features and upgrades.

17. 2026-03-13
    listed $295,990 Active 422-char remark

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    Welcome to the Costa! This charming ranch-style home features an open-concept kitchen, café, and family room. Enjoy outdoor entertaining on the covered patio. The owner's suite provides a relaxing retreat, complemented by two additional bedrooms, a bathroom, and a two-car garage. Flexible floor plan with options to personalize. Offerings vary by location; check with the community agent for features and upgrades.

18. 2026-03-12
    listed $295,990 Active 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    Welcome to the Costa! This charming ranch-style home features an open-concept kitchen, café, and family room. Enjoy outdoor entertaining on the covered patio. The owner’s suite provides a relaxing retreat, complemented by two additional bedrooms, a bathroom, and a two-car garage. Flexible floor plan with options to personalize. Offerings vary by location; check with the community agent for features and upgrades.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,559 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,032 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,473/yr (+$289/mo · 222.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$1,559
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,280
• − Management: −$2,280
• − HOA: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$3,453
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$829
• After-tax cash flow: $2,049/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Beasley

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1273
• US rank: #22130

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing F Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,232

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 337.8236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $289,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $289,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $295,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-12 Listed $295,990 HARMLS