105 Lance Rd · Murfreesboro, NC 27855

$39,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 512 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 101 Days on market

Built 1953 4,791 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

GREAT RENTAL PROPERTY BUT NEEDS TO BE REMOLDED.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• Built 1953
• Listed 101 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property (Residential/Vacation); One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Metal roof; Built using typical residential construction materials
• Exterior features: Front porch; Paved road access; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: Total of 4 rooms (includes sleeping areas)
• Flooring: Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window unit(s) for cooling; No central heating listed
• Interior features: Wood flooring; No fireplace; No basement
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $370 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($787 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $36k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#236 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Hertford County Schools (town): math 14% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #171 of 178 in NC (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Riverview Elementary (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,325 of 1,410 statewide, top 94%, 344 students, 99% FRL); Hertford County Middle (math 6% / reading 26%, grade F, #455 of 475 statewide, top 96%, 536 students, 99% FRL); Hertford County High (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #518 of 535 statewide, top 97%, 573 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 74% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Hertford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Hertford County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $36,309 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.73%
• DSCR: 2.77
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.92×
• Total profit: $32,591
• Equity at exit: $22,438

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.00×
• Total profit: $78,234
• Equity at exit: $38,584

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27855

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $787 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $310/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$165
• Net cashflow: $370

Break-even live

Break-even rent $319

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $392	-5% $381	+0% $370	+5% $359	+10% $347
Rent	-10% $308	-5% $339	+0% $370	+5% $401	+10% $432
Rate	-1.0pp $390	-0.5pp $380	base $370	+0.5pp $360	+1.0pp $349

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $39,900 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,900 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,900 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,900 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $39,900 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-03-11
    listed $39,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $310 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $327 · $27/mo
• Expected delta: +$17/yr (+$1/mo · 5.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 75% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,442
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$310
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$755
• − Management: −$755
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $4,026
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$966
• After-tax cash flow: $3,473/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hertford County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702160
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $33,467
• Composite: 16.29/100
• National rank: #9213
• State rank: #171 of 178 in NC

Livability — Murfreesboro

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #236
• US rank: #10779

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,635

Population outlook (Hertford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,401 people
• By 2030: 22,708 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 21,227 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 19,942 · -14.8%
• By 2075: 17,844 · -23.7%
• By 2100: 15,148 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 29% Hispanic / Latino 10% Native American 3% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hertford

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.8) · D 63.0% · R 36.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.8pp toward R · 2008: 41.5pp · 2024: 26.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.8 2020: D+34.0 2016: D+37.7 2012: D+44.3 2008: D+41.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.93%
• Current HPI: 162.9458
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Listed $39,900 RVLG

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $310 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.