Maui Plan · Conroe, TX 77318

$349,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,300 sqft · SingleFamily · 389 Days on market

Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Cash flow +2.7/30.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 Bedrooms | 2.5-3.5 Bathrooms | Approx. 2,300 Sq. Ft. Designed with the modern homeowner in mind, The Maui delivers connected living spaces, flexible options, and thoughtful touches throughout, creating a home that effortlessly adapts to how you live, work, and relax. The first floor is centered around a spacious great room, dining area, and modern kitchen with a large island and walk-in pantry-perfect for entertaining or daily family living. A flex room provides versatility for a playroom or hobby space, with the option to turn it into a dedicated study for even more possibilities for working from home. Outdoor living is easy with a covered patio that extends from the great room, with an option to expand for more space to entertain or unwind. Upstairs, the primary suite offers a private retreat with a spa-inspired bath, dual vanities, and a generous walk-in closet. Buyers can enhance the suite with options such as an upgraded owner's bath with a shower seat or an expanded layout with a soaking tub for a more luxurious experience. Three additional bedrooms and a conveniently located laundry room make daily routines simple, while the large game room provides space for gathering, play, or relaxation. For added convenience homeowners can choose to have an additional full bath upstairs.

Key facts

• Laundry room
• Covered patio
• Great room

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• OPEN KITCHEN
• GREAT ROOM
• GAME ROOM
• LAUNDRY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $349,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $533,738.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $350k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (32.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.2% vs local median 3.4% in Conroe — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: W Lloyd Meador El (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 617 students, 43% FRL); Robert P Brabham Middle (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,117 students, 52% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1718 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 66d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 389 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $237,238 (32.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 389 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.44% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.57%
• DSCR: 0.35
• GRM: 18.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $533,738
• List price: $349,990
• Delta: -34.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
115 Spotted Wood Ct	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,138 (-7%)	2mo	$484,177	$226	68
510 Tawny Rim Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,220 (-4%)	2mo	$359,900	$162	62
115 Lukewood Cir	0.55mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,425 (+5%)	0mo	$365,000	$151	58
402 Elf Owl Ct	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,447 (+6%)	1mo	$399,900	$163	56
211 Warbler Song Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,507 (+9%)	2mo	$404,990	$162	55
171 Silva Creek Trl	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,161 (-6%)	0mo	$359,999	$167	55
608 Spotted Sunfish Dr	0.39mi	4/3.0	2,633 (+14%)	2mo	$398,897	$151	54
230 Brecon Buff Dr	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,043 (-11%)	1mo	$336,990	$165	53
359 Skyline Ridge Dr	0.33mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,630 (+14%)	2mo	$329,000	$125	52
122 Mockingbird Trails Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,990 (-14%)	0mo	$339,990	$171	51
203 Garden Rose Trl	0.51mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,052 (-11%)	0mo	$480,865	$234	51
252 Scarlet Maple Way	0.57mi	4/2.0	2,019 (-12%)	1mo	$325,000	$161	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -47.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-208,963
• Equity at exit: $79,582

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.39×
• Total profit: $-357,483
• Equity at exit: $46,148

Cash invested: $149,447 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 197 active · 68 under contract
• Months of supply: 21.9 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $405,900 ($177/sqft)
• Median days on market: 80 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +31.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1718
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,372 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,799
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$667 /mo · $8,006/yr
• Insurance: −$222
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $-1,814

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,669

Max offer price $271,197

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,446	-5% $-1,630	+0% $-1,814	+5% $-1,999	+10% $-2,183
Rent	-10% $-2,002	-5% $-1,908	+0% $-1,814	+5% $-1,721	+10% $-1,627
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,546	-0.5pp $-1,679	base $-1,814	+0.5pp $-1,953	+1.0pp $-2,093

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $133,434
• Closing costs: $16,012
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
347 Skyline Ridge Dr Willis, TX	3.0	3.0	3000	$3,100	$1.03	184d	1	0.33mi
142 Scarlet Maple Ct Willis, TX	4.0	3.0	2320	$2,516	$1.08	49d	1	0.39mi
272 Warbler Song Dr Willis, TX	4.0	2.5	2200	$1,277	$0.58	88d	1	0.45mi
272 Warbler Song Dr Willis, TX	4.0	2.5	2200	$1,277	$0.58	10d	1	0.45mi
202 Brecon Buff Dr Unit 1596557P Willis, TX	4.0	3.0	2701	$6,197	$2.29	1d	1	0.60mi
322 Fanpalm Ct Unit Na Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$2,500	$1.25	65d	1	0.62mi
216 Elianne Lace Ct Willis, TX	5.0	2.5	2962	$3,095	$1.04	94d	1	0.83mi
505 Hines Ave Apt B Willis, TX	3.0	2.5	1665	$1,500	$0.90	84d	1	1.50mi
7599 Fettle Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1594	$1,800	$1.13	57d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $349,990 Active 389 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $349,990 Active 388 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $349,990 Active 387 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $349,990 Active 386 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $349,990 Active 385 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $349,990 Active 383 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $349,990 Active 382 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $349,990 Active 381 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $349,990 Active 380 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $349,990 Active 379 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $349,990 Active 378 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $349,990 Active 377 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $349,990 Active 376 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $349,990 Active 375 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $349,990 Active 374 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $349,990 Active 373 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $349,990 Active 372 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $349,990 Active 371 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $349,990 Active 370 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $349,990 Active 369 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $349,990 Active 368 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $349,990 Active 367 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $349,990 Active 366 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $349,990 Active 365 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $349,990 Active 364 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $349,990 Active 363 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $349,990 Active 362 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $349,990 Active 361 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $349,990 Active 360 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $349,990 Active 359 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $349,990 Active 358 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $349,990 Active 357 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $349,990 Active 356 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $349,990 Active 355 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $349,990 Active 354 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $349,990 Active 353 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $349,990 Active 352 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $349,990 Active 351 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $349,990 Active 350 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $349,990 Active 349 DOM
41. 2026-09-27
    days on market $349,990 Active 347 DOM
42. 2026-09-26
    days on market $349,990 Active 346 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $349,990 Active 345 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $349,990 Active 344 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $349,990 Active 343 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $349,990 Active 342 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $349,990 Active 341 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $349,990 Active 340 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $349,990 Active 339 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $349,990 Active 338 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,898
• − Property taxes: −$8,006
• − Insurance: −$2,669
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,277
• − Management: −$2,277
• − Depreciation: −$15,527
• Taxable loss: −$32,186
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,725
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,048/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 0 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $57,500–$103,500 screening

The home is in fair condition with moderate rehabilitation needs. Painting, landscaping, and kitchen updates would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Paint appears slightly worn in some areas.
• Minor Landscaping — Landscaping could be improved to enhance curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhanced landscaping can significantly boost curb appeal and value. ↑
• Resale Kitchen Updates — Modernizing the kitchen can attract more buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom Updates — Updating bathrooms can increase the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Resale Flooring Updates — Upgrading flooring can enhance the home's aesthetic and value. ↑
• Both HVAC/Utilities — Upgrading HVAC and utilities can improve comfort and energy efficiency, boosting value. ↑
• Both Exterior Siding — Reconditioning or replacing siding can improve the home's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Windows — Replacing or updating windows can improve energy efficiency and curb appeal. ↑
• Both Foundation/Structure — Ensuring the foundation and structure are in good condition can add to the home's value and safety. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping can significantly enhance the home's curb appeal and value, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary W Lloyd Meador El F TX #1,155/4,322 Nat'l #16,061/41,679 Middle Robert P Brabham Middle F TX #756/1,662 Nat'l #6,830/14,009 High Willis H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 0% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $339,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $346,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $329,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-15 Listed $336,990 Zillow