2909 N 11th St · Tampa, FL 33605

$189,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1939 5,500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Investor Special in Historic Ybor! Excellent opportunity to rehab, build, or hold in one of Tampa’s fastest-growing areas. This large lot (~5,500 SF) is zoned YC-8, allowing for single-family use with potential to add an Accessory Dwelling Unit (ADU) for additional rental income. There's also a detached block structure in the back with existing slab—ideal for future conversion or storage. The main home offers 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, tile flooring, and a functional layout ready for a full renovation. Features include cabinets, laundry hookups, dual vanities, and plenty of storage, though updates are needed throughout. The lot is fenced, inc

Key facts

• Large lot
• Zoned yc-8
• Fenced lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• ZONED YC-8
• ACCESSORY DWELLING UNIT
• DETACHED BLOCK STRUCTURE
• FENCED LOT
• PAVED OFF-STREET PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($520/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (9.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (9.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#142 in FL, #2,135 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 187 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,716/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1374% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $190k implies a 337% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,611 (9.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.98%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $102,133
• Equity at exit: $171,077

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.48×
• Total profit: $291,155
• Equity at exit: $368,934

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33605

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,716 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,848/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,661

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1211 E 18th Ave Unit 2 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	725	$1,800	$2.48	17d	1	0.13mi
1003 E 22nd Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1062	$1,639	$1.54	4d	1	0.15mi
912 E Saint Clair St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	24d	1	0.16mi
1302 E 21st Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	800	$1,408	$1.76	4d	9	0.20mi
1003 E 15th Ave Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,275	$1.70	24d	1	0.21mi
1221 E Columbus Dr Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,499	$1.50	24d	1	0.22mi
1307 E 17th Ave Unit El Cafecito Loft Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,450	$2.42	24d	1	0.22mi
1301 E Columbus Dr Unit 1 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,995	$2.66	24d	1	0.23mi
2817 N Taliaferro Ave Unit 3 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,275	$1.96	17d	1	0.27mi
2817 N Taliaferro Ave Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,275	$1.96	24d	1	0.27mi
2907 N 15th St Unit D Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	888	$1,850	$2.08	4d	1	0.32mi
1212 E 25th Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1035	$1,490	$1.44	19d	1	0.33mi
1006 E 26th Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,630	$1.63	4d	1	0.37mi
2810 N 16th St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	1066	$2,550	$2.39	12d	1	0.38mi
3005 Sanchez St Unit 5 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,050	$1.40	2d	1	0.39mi
3005 Sanchez St Unit 3 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$995	$1.81	24d	1	0.39mi
3005 Sanchez St Apt 4 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$900	$1.64	2d	1	0.39mi
933 E 11th Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	904	$1,590	$1.76	24d	1	0.40mi
1607 E 18th Ave Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	869	$2,600	$2.99	12d	1	0.42mi
503 E Columbus Dr Unit 1 Tampa, FL	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,400	$2.40	24d	1	0.45mi
3411 N 13th St Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	978	$1,895	$1.94	24d	1	0.46mi
1105 E 28th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	744	$1,525	$2.05	4d	1	0.47mi
2909 N 17th St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,350	$1.80	21d	1	0.50mi
418 E Amelia Ave Unit A Tampa, FL	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,800	$1.71	24d	1	0.51mi
418 E Amelia Ave Unit C Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,500	$2.14	24d	1	0.51mi
418 E Amelia Ave Unit G Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	750	$1,600	$2.13	11d	1	0.51mi
418 E Amelia Ave Unit D Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,300	$1.86	11d	1	0.51mi
1716 E Columbus Dr Unit A Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	924	$1,800	$1.95	24d	1	0.53mi
709 E James St Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,695	$2.21	12d	1	0.57mi
311 E Floribraska Ave Unit A Tampa, FL	2.0	2.0	800	$2,250	$2.81	17d	1	0.60mi
809 E Baker St Unit A Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	1083	$2,200	$2.03	24d	1	0.62mi
310 E Frances Ave Unit C Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	925	$500	$0.54	17d	1	0.63mi
1720 Nick Nuccio Pkwy Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0–3.0	955	$3,170	$3.32	24d	40	0.64mi
1014 E 31st Ave Unit B Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$995	$1.81	24d	1	0.68mi
1014 E 31st Ave Unit A Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	600	$1,149	$1.92	24d	1	0.68mi
1620 Nuccio Pkwy Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	770	$3,438	$4.46	1d	308	0.68mi
1605 E 29th Ave Tampa, FL	3.0	1.0	870	$1,800	$2.07	20d	1	0.70mi
1810 E Palm Ave #5304 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	867	$1,595	$1.84	4d	1	0.71mi
2006 E Columbus Dr Unit A Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	896	$1,495	$1.67	1d	1	0.72mi
2702 N Florida Ave Unit 8 Tampa, FL	1.0	1.0	550	$1,300	$2.36	24d	1	0.72mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2025-09-16
   status Pending
2. 2025-07-15
   status Active
3. 2025-07-15
   price $189,900
4. 2025-06-27
   listed $215,000 Active
5. 2019-10-29
   historical
6. 2019-09-20
   price $98,000
7. 2019-09-03
   listed $119,000 Active
8. 2002-05-06
   soldstatus $43,500
9. 1987-09-01
   soldstatus $19,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,593
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,848
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,647
• − Management: −$1,647
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$2,661
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$639
• After-tax cash flow: $1,159/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tampa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #2135

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tampa, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 523,346
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,030
• Household income: $36,975
• Rent vs Own: 59.8% rent · 40.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1374.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 18% White 17% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.43%
• Current HPI: 494.1871
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.58%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+899.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-15 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-27 Listed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-29 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-20 Price Changed $98,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-03 Listed $119,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $43,500 Public Records
• 1987-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $307 · +9.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.