4809 Melinda Dr · Forest Hill, TX 76119

$175,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,417 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1960 6,098 sqft lot $124/sqft · 21% below area Est $222k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath property also features a versatile BONUS ROOM perfect as a 4th bedroom, flex space, or an office. Enjoy an open-concept dining space, a NEW roof, NEW water heater and HVAC replaced in 2019 for added peace of mind. The private backyard is ideal for relaxing or entertaining, and the driveway offers convenient off-street parking. Prime location with easy access to I-20, 820, and Hwy 287. Great opportunity with tons of potential—don’t miss it!

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Easy access to i-20
• New roof

Tags

• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• NEW ROOF
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• OPEN CONCEPT DINING AREA
• EASY ACCESS TO I-20
• EASY ACCESS TO 820

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (0.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.6% in Forest Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#582 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Worth ISD (urban): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #742 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 187 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $175k implies a 365% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.40%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,067
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -21.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4809 Melinda Dr	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,417 (0%)	1mo	$175,000	$124	98
6300 Suellen Ln	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,580 (+12%)	5mo	$200,000	$127	69
4709 Shady Hill Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,333 (-6%)	12mo	$265,000	$199	66
4533 Forest Glen Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,315 (-7%)	0mo	$265,000	$202	64
6021 Hartman Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+10%)	0mo	$275,000	$176	56
4545 Forest Glen Dr	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,561 (+10%)	2mo	$245,000	$157	54
4712 Melinda Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,220 (-14%)	9mo	$222,500	$182	53
4720 Melinda Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,230 (-13%)	13mo	$220,000	$179	52
6408 Crawford Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,343 (-5%)	4mo	$250,000	$186	50
6516 Melinda Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (-13%)	5mo	$239,900	$195	43
6721 Lindale Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-10%)	12mo	$250,000	$197	37
6509 Tina Ct	0.66mi	3/3.0	1,624 (+15%)	2mo	$269,000	$166	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-24,558
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-29,481
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76119

• Home prices YoY: -6.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,734 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$241 /mo · $2,889/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,559

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $238	-5% $188	+0% $139	+5% $89	+10% $40
Rent	-10% $2	-5% $70	+0% $139	+5% $207	+10% $276
Rate	-1.0pp $227	-0.5pp $183	base $139	+0.5pp $93	+1.0pp $47

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1001 Boxwood Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1298	$1,715	$1.32	45d	1	0.69mi
1704 Magnolia Ln Forest Hill, TX	3.0	2.5	1298	$1,675	$1.29	45d	1	0.71mi
603 Briarwood Ln Forest Hill, TX	3.0	2.5	1298	$1,650	$1.27	26d	1	0.71mi
404 Briarwood Ln Forest Hill, TX	3.0	2.5	1298	$1,775	$1.37	8d	1	0.71mi
6709 Alma St Forest Hill, TX	3.0	2.0	1261	$1,641	$1.30	8d	1	0.73mi
6709 Alma St Forest Hill, TX	3.0	2.0	1261	$1,575	$1.25	3d	1	0.73mi
4516 Windy Ln Forest Hill, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,870	$1.44	3d	1	0.80mi
6840 Margaret Dr Forest Hill, TX	4.0	1.5	1490	$1,650	$1.11	23d	1	0.88mi
5237 Flamingo Rd Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1386	$2,500	$1.80	8d	1	1.10mi
3429 Falcon Dr Forest Hill, TX	4.0	2.0	1831	$1,945	$1.06	45d	1	1.13mi
3500 Brambleton Pl Forest Hill, TX	3.0	1.5	1190	$1,625	$1.37	45d	1	1.18mi
7012 Candlewick Ct Forest Hill, TX	3.0	2.0	1615	$1,850	$1.15	0d	1	1.22mi
3405 Orchard St Forest Hill, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,325	$1.02	45d	1	1.23mi
5532 Shore Point Trl Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1446	$1,950	$1.35	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-15
   price $175,000 492-char remark

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   This charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath property also features a versatile BONUS ROOM perfect as a 4th bedroom, flex space, or an office. Enjoy an open-concept dining space, a NEW roof, NEW water heater and HVAC replaced in 2019 for added peace of mind. The private backyard is ideal for relaxing or entertaining, and the driveway offers convenient off-street parking. Prime location with easy access to I-20, 820, and Hwy 287. Great opportunity with tons of potential—don’t miss it!

2. 2026-05-11
   price $185,000 492-char remark

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   This charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath property also features a versatile BONUS ROOM perfect as a 4th bedroom, flex space, or an office. Enjoy an open-concept dining space, a NEW roof, NEW water heater and HVAC replaced in 2019 for added peace of mind. The private backyard is ideal for relaxing or entertaining, and the driveway offers convenient off-street parking. Prime location with easy access to I-20, 820, and Hwy 287. Great opportunity with tons of potential—don’t miss it!

3. 2026-04-23
   price $189,000 492-char remark

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   This charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath property also features a versatile BONUS ROOM perfect as a 4th bedroom, flex space, or an office. Enjoy an open-concept dining space, a NEW roof, NEW water heater and HVAC replaced in 2019 for added peace of mind. The private backyard is ideal for relaxing or entertaining, and the driveway offers convenient off-street parking. Prime location with easy access to I-20, 820, and Hwy 287. Great opportunity with tons of potential—don’t miss it!

4. 2026-04-11
   price $189,999 492-char remark

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   This charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath property also features a versatile BONUS ROOM perfect as a 4th bedroom, flex space, or an office. Enjoy an open-concept dining space, a NEW roof, NEW water heater and HVAC replaced in 2019 for added peace of mind. The private backyard is ideal for relaxing or entertaining, and the driveway offers convenient off-street parking. Prime location with easy access to I-20, 820, and Hwy 287. Great opportunity with tons of potential—don’t miss it!

5. 2026-03-26
   price $190,000 492-char remark

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   This charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath property also features a versatile BONUS ROOM perfect as a 4th bedroom, flex space, or an office. Enjoy an open-concept dining space, a NEW roof, NEW water heater and HVAC replaced in 2019 for added peace of mind. The private backyard is ideal for relaxing or entertaining, and the driveway offers convenient off-street parking. Prime location with easy access to I-20, 820, and Hwy 287. Great opportunity with tons of potential—don’t miss it!

6. 2026-03-09
   price $200,000 492-char remark

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   This charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath property also features a versatile BONUS ROOM perfect as a 4th bedroom, flex space, or an office. Enjoy an open-concept dining space, a NEW roof, NEW water heater and HVAC replaced in 2019 for added peace of mind. The private backyard is ideal for relaxing or entertaining, and the driveway offers convenient off-street parking. Prime location with easy access to I-20, 820, and Hwy 287. Great opportunity with tons of potential—don’t miss it!

7. 2026-02-17
   listed $210,000 Active 492-char remark

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   This charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath property also features a versatile BONUS ROOM perfect as a 4th bedroom, flex space, or an office. Enjoy an open-concept dining space, a NEW roof, NEW water heater and HVAC replaced in 2019 for added peace of mind. The private backyard is ideal for relaxing or entertaining, and the driveway offers convenient off-street parking. Prime location with easy access to I-20, 820, and Hwy 287. Great opportunity with tons of potential—don’t miss it!

8. 2023-03-06
   listed $190,000 Active
9. 1997-05-07
   soldstatus $37,632
10. 1997-05-07
    soldstatus $37,632
11. 1985-10-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,889 · $241/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$313/yr (+$26/mo · 10.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,814
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,889
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,665
• − Management: −$1,665
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$1,174
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$282
• After-tax cash flow: $1,948/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Worth ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819700
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $42,109
• Composite: 19.61/100
• National rank: #8753
• State rank: #742 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forest Hill

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #582
• US rank: #11106

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forest Hill, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,974
• Household income: $51,267
• Rent vs Own: 45.3% rent · 54.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2221.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% Black 36% Two or more races 26% White 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 44%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 42% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.04%
• Current HPI: 336.7941
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+365.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $185,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $189,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $189,999 NTREIS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $190,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $200,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $210,000 NTREIS
• 2023-03-06 Listed $190,000 NTREIS
• 1997-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $37,632 Public Records
• 1997-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $37,632 Public Records
• 1985-10-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,889 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.