4923 E Camino Principal -- #48 · Sierra Vista, AZ 85650

$32,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 116 Days on market

Built 1967 Good condition $45/sqft · 74% below area ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute as can be and move-in ready! This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home features upgraded flooring throughout, giving it a fresh and modern feel. The kitchen shines with beautiful new cabinets and stylish butcher block countertops, creating a warm and inviting space for cooking and gathering. The bathroom has also been tastefully upgraded for added comfort and style. With new Energy Star windows and an updated A/C system, you'll enjoy year-round comfort and energy efficiency. This home is the perfect blend of charm and updates--don't miss it! BONUS - SELLER OFFERING TO PAY FIRST 3 MONTHS LOT RENT! (excluding utilities).

Key facts

• Upgraded bathroom
• Upgraded flooring
• Updated a c system

Tags

• UPGRADED FLOORING
• NEW CABINETS
• BUTCHER BLOCK COUNTERTOPS
• UPGRADED BATHROOM
• ENERGY STAR WINDOWS
• UPDATED A C SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $32k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $916 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $32k).
• Recommended offer: $30k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 40.1% vs local median 4.3% in Sierra Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#5 in AZ, #1,805 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Sierra Vista Unified District (4175) (urban): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #93 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $225 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $975 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($30k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $29,575 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 40.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 120.81%
• DSCR: 6.38
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $122,873
• List price: $32,500
• Delta: -73.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.84×
• Total profit: $53,107
• Equity at exit: $4,846

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.35×
• Total profit: $121,469
• Equity at exit: $2,810

Cash invested: $9,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85650

• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,444 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$170
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$41 /mo · $488/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $916

Break-even live

Break-even rent $284

Max offer price $32,500

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $939	-5% $927	+0% $916	+5% $905	+10% $894
Rent	-10% $802	-5% $859	+0% $916	+5% $973	+10% $1,030
Rate	-1.0pp $933	-0.5pp $924	base $916	+0.5pp $908	+1.0pp $899

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,125
• Closing costs: $975
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $32,500 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $32,500 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $32,500 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $32,500 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $32,500 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $32,500 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $32,500 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $32,500 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $32,500 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $32,500 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $32,500 Active 101 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $32,500 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $32,500 Active 99 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $32,500 Active 98 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $32,500 Active 97 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $32,500 Active 96 DOM
17. 2026-02-24
    listed $42,500 Active 633-char remark

    Show marketing remark (633 chars)

    Cute as can be and move-in ready! This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home features upgraded flooring throughout, giving it a fresh and modern feel. The kitchen shines with beautiful new cabinets and stylish butcher block countertops, creating a warm and inviting space for cooking and gathering. The bathroom has also been tastefully upgraded for added comfort and style. With new Energy Star windows and an updated A/C system, you'll enjoy year-round comfort and energy efficiency. This home is the perfect blend of charm and updates--don't miss it! BONUS - SELLER OFFERING TO PAY FIRST 3 MONTHS LOT RENT! (excluding utilities).

18. 2026-02-14
    historical
19. 2026-01-07
    price $42,500
20. 2025-10-14
    price $46,500
21. 2025-08-13
    listed $48,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,328
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,821
• − Property taxes: −$488
• − Insurance: −$162
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,386
• − Management: −$1,386
• − Depreciation: −$945
• Taxable income: $11,140
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,674
• After-tax cash flow: $8,320/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home is move-in ready with upgraded flooring and modern updates. The exterior and interior are in good condition, and the home offers a fresh and inviting atmosphere.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value.
• Rental Replace the air filter in the HVAC system — A clean HVAC system ensures year-round comfort and energy efficiency, which is beneficial for rental properties.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Rental Replace the air filter in the HVAC system — A clean HVAC system ensures year-round comfort and energy efficiency, which is beneficial for rental properties. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Vista Unified District (4175)
• NCES district ID: 0401460
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,463
• Composite: 29.17/100
• National rank: #6573
• State rank: #93 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sierra Vista

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #1805

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sierra Vista, AZ
• County: Cochise County · 49,069 people
• City population: 49,069
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 14,876
• Household income: $91,654
• Rent vs Own: 13.8% rent · 86.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 180.0

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 19% Black 2% Asian 2% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.13%
• Current HPI: 137.3428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-12.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Listed $42,500 ARMLS
• 2026-02-14 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $42,500 ARMLS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $46,500 ARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Listed $48,500 ARMLS