21441 Crestview Dr · Mono Vista, CA 95370

$295,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,502 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1978 0.82 ac lot Est $353k · 16% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

DOUBLE LOT in Sonora Meadows with a single level home! Ample onsite parking, whole house backup generator, central HVAC. This home offers a great template to work and spacious interior layout. Thoughtful floor plan offers a generously sized living room with a wood burning fireplace. The kitchen features laminate flooring, electric range and breakfast nook within. All bedrooms/bathrooms are down the hallway with the primary suite offering a stall shower and walk in closet. Storage is off the hallway as well as beneath the home. Spacious and private backyard! As a member of Sonora Meadows you can enjoy use of the community pool and clubhouse.

Key facts

• 0.82 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community in-ground pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces (covered)
• Utilities: Private water source; Generator for electric
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Built in 1978
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition shingle roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard; Deck; Sloped down and level lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Tile counters; Dishwasher; Electric range / cooktop; Built-in oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (main entry level)
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with stall shower and closet; Other bathroom(s) with shower over tub and window
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Wood stove; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No additional rooms listed; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area located in the garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $397 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $277k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 5.0% in Mono Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#793 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B, employment B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Curtis Creek Elementary (rural): math 29% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #278 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $277,131 (6.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.77%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $352,970
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21441 Crestview Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,502 (0%)	1mo	$292,500	$195	99
21273 Crestview Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,476 (-2%)	7mo	$337,000	$228	81
16652 Sallander	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,482 (-1%)	1mo	$310,000	$209	78
21338 Crystal Fls	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-6%)	8mo	$220,000	$156	76
16925 American River Dr. West	0.23mi	3/3.0	1,388 (-8%)	3mo	$369,900	$266	70
21881 Phoenix Lake Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-7%)	2mo	$360,000	$257	62
21931 Glenwood Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-6%)	1mo	$351,000	$248	61
21212 Ridgeview Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,690 (+12%)	3mo	$410,000	$243	61
21850 Phoenix Lake Rd	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,608 (+7%)	3mo	$310,000	$193	60
21984 Crystal Falls Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,546 (+3%)	7mo	$337,000	$218	58
21313 American River Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-14%)	7mo	$322,500	$249	57
16581 S Creekside Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-14%)	6mo	$305,000	$235	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-22,603
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $12,462
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95370

• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,771 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,464/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$582
• Net cashflow: $397

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,268

Max offer price $295,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $564	-5% $481	+0% $397	+5% $314	+10% $230
Rent	-10% $178	-5% $288	+0% $397	+5% $507	+10% $616
Rate	-1.0pp $546	-0.5pp $472	base $397	+0.5pp $321	+1.0pp $243

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21593 Crystal Falls Dr Sonora, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,950	$2.36	24d	1	0.22mi
19011 Middle Camp Rd Twain Harte, CA	3.0	2.0	1586	$2,295	$1.45	14d	1	1.44mi
20381 Sherry Ct Unit A Soulsbyville, CA	3.0	2.0	1467	$2,195	$1.50	24d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   listed $295,000 Active
3. 2026-04-10
   historical $295,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,464 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,242 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$778/yr (+$65/mo · 53.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$1,464
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,660
• − Management: −$2,660
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$111
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$27
• After-tax cash flow: $4,795/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Curtis Creek Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0610320
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $54,986
• Composite: 29.96/100
• National rank: #6372
• State rank: #278 of 517 in CA

Livability — Mono Vista

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #793
• US rank: #22675

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mono Vista, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,373

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Russian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -322.67%
• Current HPI: 130.9637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-18 Listed $295,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-10 Coming Soon $295,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,464 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.