6618 Pelican Ln · Rosenberg, TX 77417

$389,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,199 sqft · Land · 32 Days on market

Built 2026 0.50 ac lot $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Burnet plan is a thoughtfully designed one-story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, study, and 3-car garage. The open kitchen features modern countertops, stainless steel appliances, and flows seamlessly into the breakfast area and spacious family room, creating an open-concept layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The private primary suite includes a generous walk-in closet and a well-appointed bathroom. A covered patio at the back of the home, located just off the family room, comes build standard-ideal for relaxing or hosting guests outdoors.

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Dual sinks
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• DEDICATED STUDY
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• DUAL SINKS
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Bryan Grove Residential Community with an annual association fee of $900

Exterior

• Parking: Attached oversized garage with 3 parking spaces
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and stone exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first level); Bedroom (first level); Bedroom (first level); Bedroom (first level); Office (first level)
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-514 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $316k (19.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (26.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $285,632 (26.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.64%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $38,680
• Equity at exit: $201,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $155,147
• Equity at exit: $331,961

Cash invested: $109,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77417

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,856 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$487 /mo · $5,850/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$600
• Net cashflow: $-514

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,506

Max offer price $315,665

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-244	-5% $-379	+0% $-514	+5% $-648	+10% $-783
Rent	-10% $-739	-5% $-626	+0% $-514	+5% $-401	+10% $-288
Rate	-1.0pp $-317	-0.5pp $-414	base $-514	+0.5pp $-615	+1.0pp $-718

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,498
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
402 N 4th St Beasley, TX	3.0	2.5	1700	$3,750	$2.21	0d	1	1.13mi
119 S 8th St Beasley, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,680	$1.00	25d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $389,990 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $389,990 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $389,990 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,990 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,990 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $389,990 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $389,990 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $389,990 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $389,990 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $389,990 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $392,990 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $392,990 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $392,990 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $392,990 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-22
    listed $392,990 Active 574-char remark

    Show marketing remark (574 chars)

    The Burnet plan is a thoughtfully designed one-story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, study, and 3-car garage. The open kitchen features modern countertops, stainless steel appliances, and flows seamlessly into the breakfast area and spacious family room, creating an open-concept layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The private primary suite includes a generous walk-in closet and a well-appointed bathroom. A covered patio at the back of the home, located just off the family room, comes build standard-ideal for relaxing or hosting guests outdoors.

16. 2026-05-20
    listed $392,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$5,850
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,742
• − Management: −$2,742
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable loss: −$13,099
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,144
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,020/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 115,151
• Population (ZIP): 3,232

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 337.8236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $392,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-20 Listed $392,990 HARMLS