Sterling Plan · Kyle, TX 78640

$109,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured · 71 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Cash flow +1.6/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the perfect balance of space and sustainability with the Sterling. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a flexible layout and modern amenities. Enjoy the freedom to customize your living space with a versatile bonus room that can adapt to your family's needs. Built with Clayton's innovative eBuilt system, the Sterling incorporates over 25 eco-friendly features without compromising on comfort or style. Experience the benefits of reduced energy consumption and a smaller environmental footprint.

Key facts

• Listed 71 days

🏗️ New construction. The $109,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $499,837.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 1.6% vs local median 3.3% in Kyle — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#138 in TX, #3,993 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1801 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 6.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,395 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.38% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.65%
• DSCR: 0.26
• GRM: 21.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $499,837
• List price: $109,995
• Delta: -77.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
93 White Bluff Dr	0.04mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,560 (+3%)	12mo	$99,000	$63	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -52.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.50×
• Total profit: $-210,226
• Equity at exit: $74,527

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.60×
• Total profit: $-363,849
• Equity at exit: $43,217

Cash invested: $139,954 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1801
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,915 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,621
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$625 /mo · $7,498/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-1,941

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,372

Max offer price $218,915

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,959
• Closing costs: $14,995
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
124 Hollis Ln Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,945	$1.21	15d	1	0.28mi
315 Nottingham Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1336	$1,800	$1.35	11d	1	0.28mi
100 Maplewood S Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1685	$1,700	$1.01	44d	1	0.51mi
320 Goll ST Niederwald, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1056	$1,982	$1.88	2d	87	0.64mi
314 Paddington Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,799	$1.32	18d	1	0.67mi
232 Buttercup Way Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1398	$1,695	$1.21	24d	1	0.69mi
387 Paddington Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1537	$1,795	$1.17	18d	1	0.71mi
210 Amberwood S Kyle, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	807	$1,635	$2.02	2d	35	0.72mi
119 Peppergrass Cv Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2101	$2,050	$0.98	4d	1	0.78mi
220 Peppergrass Cv Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	1799	$1,875	$1.04	15d	1	0.87mi
364 Westminster Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1610	$1,925	$1.20	44d	1	0.90mi
3700 Dacy Ln Kyle, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1182	$1,332	$1.13	4d	1	0.93mi
228 Pearl Lake Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1439	$1,725	$1.20	24d	1	1.01mi
228 Pearl Lake Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1439	$1,725	$1.20	22d	1	1.01mi
124 Lago Grande Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2024	$1,995	$0.99	44d	1	1.12mi
289 Lake Washington Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1389	$1,699	$1.22	12d	1	1.13mi
117 Mood Lake Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2120	$2,170	$1.02	2d	1	1.18mi
3400 Kyle Xing Kyle, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$2,040	$2.15	2d	19	1.23mi
179 Sweetwater Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1773	$1,995	$1.13	12d	1	1.25mi
205 Mood Lake Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,595	$1.12	24d	1	1.27mi
205 Mood Lake Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1419	$1,595	$1.12	22d	1	1.27mi
109 Granite Shoals Dr Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,700	$1.30	4d	1	1.32mi
3403 Kyle Xing Kyle, TX	2.0	2.0	1257	$1,934	$1.54	20d	1	1.36mi
145 Greenbelt Reservoir Pass Unit 1546380P Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1528	$3,393	$2.22	15d	1	1.37mi
204 Inks Ln Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2150	$1,995	$0.93	12d	1	1.38mi
401 Town Lake Bnd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1785	$2,250	$1.26	44d	1	1.43mi
416 Purple Martin Ave Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,800	$1.37	24d	1	1.43mi
411 Town Lake Bnd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.0	1681	$2,025	$1.20	18d	1	1.43mi
931 Brandi Cir Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1343	$1,750	$1.30	4d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,995 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,995 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,995 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,995 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,995 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,995 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,995 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $109,995 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $109,995 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,995 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,995 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,995 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,995 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-04-08
    listed $109,995 Active 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    Discover the perfect balance of space and sustainability with the Sterling. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers a flexible layout and modern amenities. Enjoy the freedom to customize your living space with a versatile bonus room that can adapt to your family's needs. Built with Clayton's innovative eBuilt system, the Sterling incorporates over 25 eco-friendly features without compromising on comfort or style. Experience the benefits of reduced energy consumption and a smaller environmental footprint.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,980
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,999
• − Property taxes: −$7,498
• − Insurance: −$2,499
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,838
• − Management: −$1,838
• − Depreciation: −$14,541
• Taxable loss: −$33,233
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,976
• After-tax cash flow: $-15,321/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in Kyle, TX, is in excellent condition with modern amenities and a good curb appeal. It's ready for move-in and offers a great balance of space and sustainability.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Replace window treatments — Fresh window treatments can improve the home's aesthetic and increase its value.
• Both Upgrade flooring in bathrooms — Modern flooring can enhance the home's appeal and increase its value for both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Fresh window treatments can improve the home's aesthetic and increase its value. ↑
• Both Upgrade flooring in bathrooms — Modern flooring can enhance the home's appeal and increase its value for both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kyle

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #3993

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kyle, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2552.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed $109,995 Zillow