715 Keith Dr · Grand Rivers, KY 42045

$55,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Other · 135 Days on market

Built 1986 2.01 ac lot $55/sqft · 49% below area Est $110k · 49% under ↓ 8% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated on a two-acre lot, this 1986 manufactured home features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,008 sq. ft. of living space. The property includes an oversized rear wood deck overlooking the grounds. For storage and workspace, there is a 32x60 shop—ideal for lake toys and equipment—as well as an additional 12x20 shed.

Key facts

• Two acre lot
• 32x60 shop
• 12x20 shed

Tags

• TWO ACRE LOT
• OVERSIZED REAR WOOD DECK
• 32X60 SHOP
• 12X20 SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $56k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $362 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($947 rent vs $56k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#165 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Livingston County (rural): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #80 of 165 in KY (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: South Livingston Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #348 of 676 statewide, top 55%, 362 students, 62% FRL); Livingston County Middle School (math 32% / reading 43%, grade F, #73 of 217 statewide, top 36%, 252 students, 60% FRL); Livingston Central High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 329 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.0%/yr); year-one equity from $386 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $562 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $49,192 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.73%
• DSCR: 2.23
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $110,163
• List price: $55,900
• Delta: -49.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $18,831
• Equity at exit: $13,479

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.24×
• Total profit: $50,661
• Equity at exit: $14,141

Cash invested: $15,652 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42045

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $947 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$293
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$70 /mo · $838/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $362

Break-even live

Break-even rent $489

Max offer price $55,900

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $400	-5% $381	+0% $362	+5% $342	+10% $323
Rent	-10% $287	-5% $324	+0% $362	+5% $399	+10% $437
Rate	-1.0pp $390	-0.5pp $376	base $362	+0.5pp $347	+1.0pp $333

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,975
• Closing costs: $1,677
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $55,900 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $55,900 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $55,900 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,900 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,900 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,900 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,900 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,900 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $55,900 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $55,900 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $55,900 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,900 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $55,900 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $55,900 Active 116 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,900 Active 115 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,900 Active 114 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,900 Active 113 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,900 Active 112 DOM
19. 2026-04-12
    price $59,900 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Situated on a two-acre lot, this 1986 manufactured home features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,008 sq. ft. of living space. The property includes an oversized rear wood deck overlooking the grounds. For storage and workspace, there is a 32x60 shop—ideal for lake toys and equipment—as well as an additional 12x20 shed.

20. 2026-03-09
    price $64,900 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Situated on a two-acre lot, this 1986 manufactured home features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,008 sq. ft. of living space. The property includes an oversized rear wood deck overlooking the grounds. For storage and workspace, there is a 32x60 shop—ideal for lake toys and equipment—as well as an additional 12x20 shed.

21. 2026-02-08
    listed $68,500 Active 331-char remark

    Show marketing remark (331 chars)

    Situated on a two-acre lot, this 1986 manufactured home features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,008 sq. ft. of living space. The property includes an oversized rear wood deck overlooking the grounds. For storage and workspace, there is a 32x60 shop—ideal for lake toys and equipment—as well as an additional 12x20 shed.

22. 2025-01-28
    listed $64,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,363
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,131
• − Property taxes: −$838
• − Insurance: −$280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$909
• − Management: −$909
• − Depreciation: −$1,626
• Taxable income: $3,669
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$881
• After-tax cash flow: $3,460/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston County
• NCES district ID: 2103510
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $41,875
• Composite: 27.87/100
• National rank: #6873
• State rank: #80 of 165 in KY

Livability — Grand Rivers

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #8446

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,923

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,790 people
• By 2030: 8,413 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 7,709 · -12.3%
• By 2050: 7,090 · -19.3%
• By 2075: 6,046 · -31.2%
• By 2100: 5,202 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.0) · D 17.8% · R 80.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.4pp toward R · 2008: -27.6pp · 2024: -63.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.0 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+38.6 2008: R+27.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.00%
• Current HPI: 189.7508
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $59,900 WKRMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $64,900 WKRMLS
• 2026-02-08 Listed $68,500 WKRMLS
• 2025-01-28 Listed $64,900 WKRMLS