1415 N Elm St St · Fairmont, MN 56031

$11,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 694 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 180 Days on market

Built 1948 3,049 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very affordable opportunity to build sweat equity! One BR, one bath bungalow with single attached garage - priced to sell. Property is sold in AS IS condition.

Key facts

• 3,049 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1948

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $12k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $647 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($947 rent vs $12k).
• Recommended offer: $10k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 71.6% vs local median 3.4% in Fairmont — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#407 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Fairmont Area School District (town): math 45% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #148 of 301 in MN (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $82 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $357 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Martin County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($10k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (70%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price; built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $10,472 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 71.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 233.11%
• DSCR: 11.37
• GRM: 1.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.80×
• Total profit: $39,322
• Equity at exit: $1,774

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 27.24×
• Total profit: $87,429
• Equity at exit: $1,029

Cash invested: $3,332 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56031

• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 1.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $947 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$62
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $406/yr
• Insurance: −$5
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$199
• Net cashflow: $647

Break-even live

Break-even rent $128

Max offer price $11,900

Occupancy floor 27%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $654	-5% $651	+0% $647	+5% $644	+10% $641
Rent	-10% $572	-5% $610	+0% $647	+5% $685	+10% $722
Rate	-1.0pp $653	-0.5pp $650	base $647	+0.5pp $644	+1.0pp $641

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $2,975
• Closing costs: $357
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $11,900 Active 180 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $29,500 Active 178 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,500 Active 177 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $29,500 Active 176 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,500 Active 175 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $29,500 Active 173 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $29,500 Active 172 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,500 Active 169 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $29,500 Active 168 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $29,500 Active 167 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $29,500 Active 165 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $29,500 Active 163 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,500 Active 162 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,500 Active 161 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,500 Active 160 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,500 Active 159 DOM
17. 2026-02-09
    price $29,500 159-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    Very affordable opportunity to build some sweat equity! One bedroom, one bath, one level bungalow with single attached garage. Property sold AS IS.

18. 2026-02-09
    price $29,500 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    Very affordable opportunity to build some sweat equity! One bedroom, one bath, one level bungalow with single attached garage. Property sold AS IS.

19. 2025-12-19
    listed $39,900 Active 159-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    Very affordable opportunity to build some sweat equity! One bedroom, one bath, one level bungalow with single attached garage. Property sold AS IS.

20. 2025-12-19
    listed $39,900 Active 147-char remark

    Show marketing remark (147 chars)

    Very affordable opportunity to build some sweat equity! One bedroom, one bath, one level bungalow with single attached garage. Property sold AS IS.

21. 2005-09-20
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $406 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $406 · $34/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,369
• − Mortgage interest: −$667
• − Property taxes: −$406
• − Insurance: −$60
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$910
• − Management: −$910
• − Depreciation: −$346
• Taxable income: $8,072
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,937
• After-tax cash flow: $5,830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairmont Area School District
• NCES district ID: 2700124
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $46,280
• Composite: 40.76/100
• National rank: #3648
• State rank: #148 of 301 in MN

Livability — Fairmont

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #407
• US rank: #9480

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairmont, MN
• City population: 11,800
• Population (ZIP): 11,800

Population outlook (Martin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,583 people
• By 2030: 17,814 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 16,312 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 15,021 · -19.2%
• By 2075: 13,025 · -29.9%
• By 2100: 11,311 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Romanian 6% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Martin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.5% · R 69.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.4pp toward R · 2008: -15.2pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+37.9 2016: R+41.4 2012: R+23.8 2008: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.34%
• Current HPI: 191.514
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+145.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $29,500 RASM
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $29,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-19 Listed $39,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-19 Listed $39,900 RASM
• 2005-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $406 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.