2847 Oak Trail Dr · Newburgh, IN 47630

$339,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,545 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2000 0.27 ac lot Est $377k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this spacious, 4-bedroom, 2 full bath brick home in a fantastic Newburgh neighborhood! The dramatic 2-story foyer creates a warm first impression as you step inside. The main floor layout is practical and roomy featuring an eat-in kitchen (with stainless appliances included!), formal dining room, dedicated office/den, cozy gas fireplace in the living room and half bath. Up the stairs you'll find all four bedrooms hall bathroom and laundry room. The primary suite offers a relaxing retreat featuring large bedroom, private bath with tub, step-in shower, double vanity, and walk-in closet. Down the hall, the fourth bedroom can easily be a bonus room and features double closets pr

Key facts

• Gorgeous yard
• 2 story foyer
• Private bath

Tags

• 2 STORY FOYER
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• DEDICATED OFFICE
• PRIVATE BATH
• WALK IN CLOSET
• GORGEOUS YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Oak Grove / Oakgrove

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces; Garage with automatic garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Gas water heater
• Home design: Single-family residence, site-built; Two-story
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Level lot; Lot ~0.27 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms with walk-in closet(s)
• Flooring: Laminate countertops noted (flooring types not specified)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Entrance foyer; Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Laminate countertops; Window treatments; Gas-log fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup (upper level); Electric dryer hookup; Washer and dryer included; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-500 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (26.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (38.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (38.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#21 in IN, #1,922 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Warrick County School Corporation (suburban): math 54% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #24 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John H Castle Elementary School (math 73% / reading 60%, grade B+, #65 of 994 statewide, top 7%, 998 students, 20% FRL); Castle North Middle School (math 57% / reading 59%, grade B, #18 of 330 statewide, top 5%, 770 students, 22% FRL); Castle High School (math 56% / reading 80%, grade B, #22 of 369 statewide, top 6%, 1,961 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 383 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 249 units permitted in Warrick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warrick County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,810 (38.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.30%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 13.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $376,660
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2677 Briarcliff Dr	0.29mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,499 (-2%)	5mo	$370,000	$148	75
6655 Oakland Ct	0.08mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,703 (+6%)	21mo	$340,000	$126	63
6293 Pavilion Dr	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,528 (-1%)	6mo	$375,000	$148	62
2433 Briarcliff Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5	2,727 (+7%)	4mo	$480,000	$176	61
2843 Alex Ct	0.75mi	3/2.5	2,557 (+0%)	10mo	$490,000	$192	56
2844 Briarcliff Dr	0.29mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,880 (+13%)	11mo	$551,500	$191	51
6177 Lyndhurst Dr	0.57mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,656 (+4%)	15mo	$450,000	$169	49
3102 Paradise Cir	0.65mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,395 (-6%)	10mo	$353,700	$148	46
2355 Fuquay Rd	0.72mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,440 (-4%)	10mo	$313,000	$128	44
6211 Laurel Ridge Dr	0.59mi	3/3.0	2,314 (-9%)	16mo	$265,000	$115	42
2266 Old Plank Rd	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,761 (+8%)	13mo	$395,000	$143	40
7433 Shadow Brook Dr	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,881 (+13%)	15mo	$385,000	$134	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-75,958
• Equity at exit: $50,680

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-57,267
• Equity at exit: $29,388

Cash invested: $95,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 47630

• Rents YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 13.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,088 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,702/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $-500

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,721

Max offer price $251,632

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-307	-5% $-403	+0% $-500	+5% $-596	+10% $-692
Rent	-10% $-665	-5% $-582	+0% $-500	+5% $-417	+10% $-335
Rate	-1.0pp $-328	-0.5pp $-413	base $-500	+0.5pp $-588	+1.0pp $-677

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,975
• Closing costs: $10,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2035 Long Cove Cir Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	2303	$2,395	$1.04	44d	1	1.16mi
2775 Pearce Pt Newburgh, IN	4.0	2.5	2544	$2,200	$0.86	44d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-30
   status $339,900 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-05-18
   listed $339,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,702 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,796 · $233/mo
• Expected delta: +$94/yr (+$8/mo · 3.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,057
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,040
• − Property taxes: −$2,702
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,005
• − Management: −$2,005
• − Depreciation: −$9,888
• Taxable loss: −$12,281
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,947
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,049/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warrick County School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1812390
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $62,801
• Composite: 49.38/100
• National rank: #2014
• State rank: #24 of 301 in IN

Livability — Newburgh

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #21
• US rank: #1922

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Warrick County · 39,818 people
• City population: 39,818
• Metro: Evansville, IN-KY
• Population (ZIP): 39,818
• Household income: $94,162
• Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 770.0

Population outlook (Warrick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,569 people
• By 2030: 68,404 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 71,131 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 72,743 · +9.3%
• By 2075: 76,088 · +14.3%
• By 2100: 72,261 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warrick

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.2) · D 34.1% · R 64.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -30.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.2 2020: R+27.8 2016: R+33.9 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.44%
• Current HPI: 185.7643
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.69%
• Metro: Evansville, IN-KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $339,900 IRMLS

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,702 · +15.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.