615 Williams Ave · Archer City, TX 76351

$69,349

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 214 Days on market

Built 1956 0.48 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW LISTING! Located in Archer City, TX, the residence at 615 E Williams St offers a peaceful living experience. Featuring a comfortable living space with proximity to local attractions such as historic downtown Archer City, well-known bookstores, and the charm of a small town with a rich cultural backdrop. This property could be ideal for someone looking for a community-oriented lifestyle with easy access to daily conveniences. This home is being sold AS IS but does have a NEW ROOF. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

Key facts

• New roof
• 0.48 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• PROXIMITY TO LOCAL ATTRACTIONS
• HISTORIC DOWNTOWN ARCHER CITY
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $225 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($827 rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#220 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Archer City ISD (rural): math 56% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #79 of 826 in TX (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Archer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($480 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (7.1% local appreciation)).
• Archer County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,027 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.93%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $38,787
• Equity at exit: $48,308

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.25×
• Total profit: $101,938
• Equity at exit: $91,992

Cash invested: $19,418 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76351

• Home prices YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $827 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$364
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $427/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$174
• Net cashflow: $225

Break-even live

Break-even rent $542

Max offer price $69,349

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,337
• Closing costs: $2,080
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $69,349 Active 214 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,349 Active 213 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,349 Active 212 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,349 Active 211 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,349 Active 210 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,349 Active 208 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,349 Active 207 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,349 Active 205 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,349 Active 204 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,349 Active 203 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,349 Active 202 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,349 Active 199 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,349 Active 198 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,349 Active 197 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,349 Active 196 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,349 Active 195 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $69,349 Active 194 DOM
18. 2026-02-20
    price $69,349 714-char remark

    Show marketing remark (714 chars)

    NEW LISTING! Located in Archer City, TX, the residence at 615 E Williams St offers a peaceful living experience. Featuring a comfortable living space with proximity to local attractions such as historic downtown Archer City, well-known bookstores, and the charm of a small town with a rich cultural backdrop. This property could be ideal for someone looking for a community-oriented lifestyle with easy access to daily conveniences. This home is being sold AS IS but does have a NEW ROOF. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

19. 2025-11-17
    listed $73,349 Active 714-char remark

    Show marketing remark (714 chars)

    NEW LISTING! Located in Archer City, TX, the residence at 615 E Williams St offers a peaceful living experience. Featuring a comfortable living space with proximity to local attractions such as historic downtown Archer City, well-known bookstores, and the charm of a small town with a rich cultural backdrop. This property could be ideal for someone looking for a community-oriented lifestyle with easy access to daily conveniences. This home is being sold AS IS but does have a NEW ROOF. WE MAKE IT EASY TO OWN. This is a great opportunity! Don't wait, call us today to get more information on the owner's easy terms and smooth process that may be able to put the deed in your name and make this your dream home.

20. 2025-09-12
    historical
21. 2025-05-14
    status Active
22. 2025-04-10
    status Pending
23. 2024-12-02
    price $73,349
24. 2024-09-12
    listed $69,349 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $427 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,269 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$842/yr (+$70/mo · 197.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,926
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,885
• − Property taxes: −$427
• − Insurance: −$347
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$794
• − Management: −$794
• − Depreciation: −$2,017
• Taxable income: $1,663
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$399
• After-tax cash flow: $2,305/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Archer City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808610
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,782
• Composite: 50.04/100
• National rank: #1917
• State rank: #79 of 826 in TX

Livability — Archer City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #5417

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Archer City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,481

Population outlook (Archer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,158 people
• By 2030: 7,855 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 7,120 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 6,320 · -22.5%
• By 2075: 4,842 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 3,527 · -56.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Archer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+79.3) · D 10.1% · R 89.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: -65.4pp · 2024: -79.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+79.3 2020: R+80.4 2016: R+79.4 2012: R+73.8 2008: R+65.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.06%
• Current HPI: 107.3175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $69,349 HARMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $73,349 HARMLS
• 2025-09-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-14 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-04-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-12-02 Price Changed $73,349 HARMLS
• 2024-09-12 Listed $69,349 HARMLS

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $427 · -5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.