16246 Hughes Chapel Rd · Crossett, AR 71220

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1969 1.25 ac lot $74/sqft · 46% below area Est $157k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CALL THIS COZY 3 BEDROOM 1 BATH BRICK HOME YOURS TODAY. OFFERING 1.25 ACRES NORTH OF TOWN, RURAL SETTING, BEEKMAN CHARTER SCHOOL DISTRICT. RIGHT IN BETWEEN CROSSETT AND BASTROP FOR YOUR CONVENIENCE. DON'T MISS OUT! CALL YOUR FAVORITE AGENT TODAY TO SCHEDULE YOUR SHOWING!

Key facts

• Rural setting
• 1.25 acres
• 1.25 acre lot

Tags

• 1.25 ACRES
• RURAL SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $332 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 5.4% in Crossett — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#299 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Morehouse Parish (town): math 10% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #83 of 98 in LA (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 11 units permitted in Morehouse Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Morehouse County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.75%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $156,659
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -45.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.1% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $10,592
• Equity at exit: $16,105

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $39,251
• Equity at exit: $13,380

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71220

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,090 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $572/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $332

Break-even live

Break-even rent $669

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $85,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 57 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 56 DOM
18. 2026-04-20
    status Active 272-char remark

    Show marketing remark (272 chars)

    CALL THIS COZY 3 BEDROOM 1 BATH BRICK HOME YOURS TODAY. OFFERING 1.25 ACRES NORTH OF TOWN, RURAL SETTING, BEEKMAN CHARTER SCHOOL DISTRICT. RIGHT IN BETWEEN CROSSETT AND BASTROP FOR YOUR CONVENIENCE. DON'T MISS OUT! CALL YOUR FAVORITE AGENT TODAY TO SCHEDULE YOUR SHOWING!

19. 2026-04-15
    status Pending 272-char remark

    Show marketing remark (272 chars)

    CALL THIS COZY 3 BEDROOM 1 BATH BRICK HOME YOURS TODAY. OFFERING 1.25 ACRES NORTH OF TOWN, RURAL SETTING, BEEKMAN CHARTER SCHOOL DISTRICT. RIGHT IN BETWEEN CROSSETT AND BASTROP FOR YOUR CONVENIENCE. DON'T MISS OUT! CALL YOUR FAVORITE AGENT TODAY TO SCHEDULE YOUR SHOWING!

20. 2026-03-30
    listed $85,000 Active 272-char remark

    Show marketing remark (272 chars)

    CALL THIS COZY 3 BEDROOM 1 BATH BRICK HOME YOURS TODAY. OFFERING 1.25 ACRES NORTH OF TOWN, RURAL SETTING, BEEKMAN CHARTER SCHOOL DISTRICT. RIGHT IN BETWEEN CROSSETT AND BASTROP FOR YOUR CONVENIENCE. DON'T MISS OUT! CALL YOUR FAVORITE AGENT TODAY TO SCHEDULE YOUR SHOWING!

21. 2023-05-25
    soldstatus $60,000
22. 2015-09-30
    soldstatus $63,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $572 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $572 · $48/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 61% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$572
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,046
• − Management: −$1,046
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $2,756
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$661
• After-tax cash flow: $3,325/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morehouse Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201110
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -29.00%
• Median HH income: $30,482
• Composite: 11.46/100
• National rank: #9704
• State rank: #83 of 98 in LA

Livability — Crossett

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #299
• US rank: #20393

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 20,426

Population outlook (Morehouse County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,631 people
• By 2030: 22,114 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 19,203 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 16,698 · -29.3%
• By 2075: 11,998 · -49.2%
• By 2100: 8,622 · -63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (51%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% White 44% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China

Political lean MEDSL · Morehouse

• 2024 margin: R (+19.4) · D 39.7% · R 59.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.3pp toward R · 2008: -11.1pp · 2024: -19.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.4 2020: R+13.5 2016: R+11.4 2012: R+5.6 2008: R+11.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.10%
• Current HPI: 171.3272
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+33.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Relisted — NELABOR
• 2026-04-15 Pending — NELABOR
• 2026-03-30 Listed $85,000 NELABOR
• 2023-05-25 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2015-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $63,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $572 · -12.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.