86 Silver Fern Dr · St. Augustine South, FL 32086

$259,500

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,354 sqft · Townhouse public records · 44 Days on market

Built 2021 2,613 sqft lot $192/sqft · at area comps Est $273k · at est. $194/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this meticulously maintained 3 bed 2.5 bath townhome nestled in the highly desirable Orchard Park community. Upon entering, you'll be captivated by the serene lake view through your sliding glass doors, creating a perfect morning coffee oasis. The kitchen features elegant white cabinets and granite countertops, while the bathrooms are equipped with quartz countertops. Convenience is key with a one-car garage and the added bonus of lawn care included. This townhome epitomizes modern living at its finest, offering an elevated lifestyle in a sought-after community. Conveniently located just 20 minutes from the beach, 10 minutes from Historic Downtown St. Augustine, 5 minutes from two different Publix, 5 minutes from I-95, and a short walk to Treaty Park. Don't miss out on this rare opportunity! All information pertaining to the property is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed. Information to be verified by the Buyer.

Key facts

• Water views
• Bar-style kitchen
• Community playground

Tags

• WATER VIEWS
• BAR-STYLE KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• 42 INCH CABINETS
• SS APPLIANCES
• COMMUNITY PLAYGROUND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: HOA restrictions noted in documents
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee, community-maintained with exterior maintenance (fee listed); Has HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage; Guest parking available
• Utilities: County water; Sewer service
• Home design: Single-family style construction; Ground-level entry
• Construction: Composition siding and Hardie board exterior over frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on a lot smaller than 1/4 acre
• Exterior features: Lakefront property with lake view and on-water frontage; Man-made pond; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the ground level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms and one half bathroom; Primary bathroom with tub/shower combo
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Disposal
• Laundry & utility: Garage door (automatic)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-309 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (21.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (22.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Otis A. Mason Elementary School (math 76% / reading 60%, grade B+, #425 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 719 students, 45% FRL); Pedro Menendez High School (math 31% / reading 54%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,519 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 20% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 74% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Johns average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 400 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,279 (22.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.10%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,736
• List price: $259,500
• Delta: -4.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
170 Great Star Ct	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,354 (0%)	1mo	$262,500	$194	90
128 Beach Palm Ct	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,354 (0%)	5mo	$260,000	$192	82
20 Beach Palm Ct	0.15mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,259 (-7%)	2mo	$265,990	$211	73
111 Beach Palm Ct	0.23mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,259 (-7%)	5mo	$248,990	$198	66
133 Beach Palm Ct	0.25mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,259 (-7%)	5mo	$242,000	$192	66
162 Beach Palm Ct	0.29mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,259 (-7%)	4mo	$241,000	$191	65
188 Beach Palm Ct	0.31mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,259 (-7%)	2mo	$250,000	$199	65
212 Beach Palm Ct	0.34mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,259 (-7%)	1mo	$259,990	$207	64
216 Beach Palm Ct	0.34mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,259 (-7%)	3mo	$249,990	$199	63
184 Beach Palm Ct	0.31mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,254 (-7%)	4mo	$245,000	$195	63
238 Beach Palm Ct	0.36mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,259 (-7%)	3mo	$255,990	$203	62
179 Ayamonte Rd	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,308 (-3%)	1mo	$284,440	$217	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-65,916
• Equity at exit: $38,692

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-99,171
• Equity at exit: $22,437

Cash invested: $72,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32086

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 400
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,023 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,361
• Tax from tax record: −$244 /mo · $2,929/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$194
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,414

Max offer price $204,909

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,875
• Closing costs: $7,785
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
150 Silver Fern Dr Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,900	$1.40	21d	1	0.09mi
5 Moultrie Creek Cir Saint Augustine, FL	2.0	1.5	1078	$1,350	$1.25	20d	1	0.13mi
10 Moultrie Creek Cir Unit 1 St. Augustine, FL	2.0	1.5	1078	$1,700	$1.58	23d	1	0.15mi
64 Pittman Ct Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1567	$2,200	$1.40	3d	1	0.22mi
159 Beach Palm Ct Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1354	$1,800	$1.33	17d	1	0.32mi
97 Ayamonte Rd Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.5	1308	$1,775	$1.36	16d	1	0.82mi
258 Jarama Cir Saint Augustine, FL	4.0	2.0	1862	$2,350	$1.26	14d	1	0.86mi
890 Poinsettia Rd Unit B St. Augustine, FL	2.0	2.0	1032	$1,590	$1.54	23d	1	1.09mi
121 Ardila Cir Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$2,400	$1.40	23d	1	1.09mi
339 Caminha Rd Saint Augustine, FL	4.0	2.0	1779	$2,295	$1.29	7d	1	1.11mi
3421 Red Cloud Trl Saint Augustine, FL	4.0	2.0	1524	$2,650	$1.74	23d	1	1.22mi
121 Aveiro Way Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$2,250	$1.32	19d	1	1.29mi
421 Fox Water Trl Unit 1546316P St. Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1603	$4,745	$2.96	16d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $194 · $2,328/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,500 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,500 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $259,500 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $265,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $265,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-05
    listed $265,000 Active 997-char remark
15. 2023-11-24
    historical 935-char remark

    Show marketing remark (935 chars)

    Discover this meticulously maintained 3 bed 2.5 bath townhome nestled in the highly desirable Orchard Park community. Upon entering, you'll be captivated by the serene lake view through your sliding glass doors, creating a perfect morning coffee oasis. The kitchen features elegant white cabinets and granite countertops, while the bathrooms are equipped with quartz countertops. Convenience is key with a one-car garage and the added bonus of lawn care included. This townhome epitomizes modern living at its finest, offering an elevated lifestyle in a sought-after community. Conveniently located just 20 minutes from the beach, 10 minutes from Historic Downtown St. Augustine, 5 minutes from two different Publix, 5 minutes from I-95, and a short walk to Treaty Park. Don't miss out on this rare opportunity! All information pertaining to the property is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed. Information to be verified by the Buyer.

16. 2023-11-19
    historical $2,360
17. 2023-11-02
    listed $2,360
18. 2023-09-20
    listed $315,000 Active 935-char remark

    Show marketing remark (935 chars)

    Discover this meticulously maintained 3 bed 2.5 bath townhome nestled in the highly desirable Orchard Park community. Upon entering, you'll be captivated by the serene lake view through your sliding glass doors, creating a perfect morning coffee oasis. The kitchen features elegant white cabinets and granite countertops, while the bathrooms are equipped with quartz countertops. Convenience is key with a one-car garage and the added bonus of lawn care included. This townhome epitomizes modern living at its finest, offering an elevated lifestyle in a sought-after community. Conveniently located just 20 minutes from the beach, 10 minutes from Historic Downtown St. Augustine, 5 minutes from two different Publix, 5 minutes from I-95, and a short walk to Treaty Park. Don't miss out on this rare opportunity! All information pertaining to the property is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed. Information to be verified by the Buyer.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,929 · $244/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,929 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,273
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,536
• − Property taxes: −$2,929
• − Insurance: −$1,298
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,942
• − Management: −$1,942
• − HOA: −$2,328
• − Depreciation: −$7,549
• Taxable loss: −$8,250
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,980
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,728/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. Augustine South

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,855
• Household income: $76,512
• Rent vs Own: 20.8% rent · 79.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 634.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -278.21%
• Current HPI: 306.2813
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-17.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $259,500 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2026-05-05 Listed $265,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2023-11-24 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2023-11-19 Rental Removed $2,360 APPFOLIO
• 2023-11-02 Listed for Rent $2,360 APPFOLIO
• 2023-09-20 Listed $315,000 realMLS

Property tax history

+40.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,929 · +13.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.