125 Colony Rd · Lancaster, KY 40444

$149,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,276 sqft · Other · 83 Days on market

Built 1957 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this nice brick home featuring 3 bedrooms, bath, eat in kitchen, and spacious living room. Bathroom has been updated and new flooring installed in one bedroom and kitchen. Home has nice yard, carport, and full basement. Hard to find a property like this in this price range. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Parking
• Listed 83 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $562 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#314 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Garrard County (rural): math 28% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #63 of 165 in KY (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lancaster Elementary School (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #255 of 676 statewide, top 42%, 469 students, 80% FRL); Garrard Middle School (math 21% / reading 42%, grade F, #125 of 217 statewide, top 63%, 563 students, 64% FRL); Garrard County High School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 801 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 50% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $150k implies a 226% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.06%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $11,442
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $55,836
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40444

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,862 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $725/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $562

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,151

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $647	-5% $604	+0% $562	+5% $519	+10% $477
Rent	-10% $415	-5% $488	+0% $562	+5% $635	+10% $709
Rate	-1.0pp $637	-0.5pp $600	base $562	+0.5pp $523	+1.0pp $483

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,900 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,900 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,900 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $149,900 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,900 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,900 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 63 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 62 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,900 Active 61 DOM
19. 2026-04-21
    price $149,900 317-char remark

    Show marketing remark (317 chars)

    Check out this nice brick home featuring 3 bedrooms, bath, eat in kitchen, and spacious living room. Bathroom has been updated and new flooring installed in one bedroom and kitchen. Home has nice yard, carport, and full basement. Hard to find a property like this in this price range. Schedule your showing today!

20. 2026-03-30
    listed $153,900 Active 317-char remark

    Show marketing remark (317 chars)

    Check out this nice brick home featuring 3 bedrooms, bath, eat in kitchen, and spacious living room. Bathroom has been updated and new flooring installed in one bedroom and kitchen. Home has nice yard, carport, and full basement. Hard to find a property like this in this price range. Schedule your showing today!

21. 2013-10-28
    soldstatus $46,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $725 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,289 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$564/yr (+$47/mo · 77.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,341
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$725
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,787
• − Management: −$1,787
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $4,534
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,088
• After-tax cash flow: $5,653/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Garrard County
• NCES district ID: 2102160
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $43,411
• Composite: 29.67/100
• National rank: #6462
• State rank: #63 of 165 in KY

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #314
• US rank: #15040

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lancaster, KY
• Population (ZIP): 14,207

Population outlook (Garrard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,852 people
• By 2030: 18,018 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 18,076 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 17,592 · -1.5%
• By 2075: 16,128 · -9.7%
• By 2100: 13,489 · -24.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Subsaharan African 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garrard

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 19.3% · R 79.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.1pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+58.5 2012: R+51.6 2008: R+43.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.08%
• Current HPI: 297.6233
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+225.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $149,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $153,900 ImagineMLS
• 2013-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $725 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.