1450 W Kaibab Ln #130 · Flagstaff, AZ 86001

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,325 sqft · Manufactured · 39 Days on market

Built 2000 Good condition 2.06 ac lot $125/sqft · 61% below area ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful Property with lots of potential sellers are also willing to a seller carry back with a good down payment.

Key facts

• 2.06 acre lot
• Built 2000
• Listed 38 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area about 1,325 (reported)
• Financial info: Land lease: Yes

Exterior

• Home design: Double wide manufactured home; Located at 1450 W Kaibab Ln #130, Flagstaff, AZ
• Construction: Year built (owner reported)
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 total bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Floor furnace heating
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring; Laundry located in hall
• Laundry & utility: Hall laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $834 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 2.1% in Flagstaff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#167 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, crime D-.
• Flagstaff Unified District (4192) (urban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #158 of 249 in AZ (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 280 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,584/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) (locally 3117% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.40%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $418,881
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -60.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1450 W Kaibab Ln #72	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+2%)	2mo	$124,000	$92	90
1675 W Sherrie Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-2%)	1mo	$410,000	$316	87
2184 W Reading Ct	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,326 (+0%)	2mo	$415,000	$313	72
1450 W Kaibab Ln #70	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-13%)	9mo	$117,000	$102	70
2401 W Adirondack Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+1%)	4mo	$460,000	$342	62
2300 W Rio Grande Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+4%)	5mo	$457,500	$332	60
1851 W Mattingly Loop	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+14%)	7mo	$445,000	$294	56
2262 W Atlantic Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,414 (+7%)	9mo	$460,000	$325	54
2412 W Rio Grande Ct	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-10%)	7mo	$399,000	$336	45
2180 W Alaska Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+14%)	9mo	$450,000	$298	44
2375 W Zepher Ave	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (-7%)	11mo	$439,000	$356	44
2348 W Rio Grande Ct	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+14%)	4mo	$451,000	$298	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $20,260
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $62,097
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86001

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 280
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,584 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $834

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,528

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1580 S Plaza Way Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$2,455	$2.81	43d	12	0.39mi
700 W University Ave Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	675	$1,735	$2.57	43d	1	0.48mi
923 W University Ave Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	877	$2,304	$2.63	43d	36	0.56mi
1385 W University Ave Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	2.0	906	$1,725	$1.90	43d	3	0.57mi
1000 W Forest Meadows St Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	2.0	947	$1,925	$2.03	43d	1	0.59mi
2141 S Linmar Ct Flagstaff, AZ	3.0	2.0	1727	$2,500	$1.45	43d	1	0.60mi
800 W Forest Meadows St Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	847	$3,535	$4.17	43d	32	0.73mi
927 W Forest Meadows St Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	958	$2,806	$2.93	43d	11	0.73mi
306 S Humphreys St Flagstaff, AZ	4.0	2.0	1500	$3,595	$2.40	43d	1	1.01mi
2761 W Pico del Monte Cir Flagstaff, AZ	3.0	2.5	1600	$3,125	$1.95	43d	1	1.12mi
600 W University Heights Dr N Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	766	$2,254	$2.94	43d	4	1.21mi
2701 S Woody Mountain Rd Flagstaff, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1078	$3,110	$2.88	43d	77	1.28mi
2292 S Alvan Clark Blvd Flagstaff, AZ	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	978	$1,701	$1.74	43d	12	1.43mi
108 E Paseo del Rio Flagstaff, AZ	4.0	4.0	1600	$3,600	$2.25	43d	1	1.43mi
323 N Leroux St Unit A Flagstaff, AZ	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $165,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $165,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $185,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 20 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $185,000 Active 19 DOM
18. 2026-05-11
    listed $185,000 Active 115-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,002
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$1,622
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,480
• − Management: −$2,480
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $7,902
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,896
• After-tax cash flow: $8,115/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 18 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Repairs flagged

• Minor ceiling fan in living room — light fixture is loose
• Minor ceiling fan in kitchen — light fixture is loose

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both replace ceiling fans — improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both install new flooring — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both update kitchen cabinets — enhances functionality and aesthetics
• Both update bathrooms — enhances functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
ceiling fan in living room · light fixture is loose	Minor	$500–3,000
ceiling fan in kitchen · light fixture is loose	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both replace ceiling fans — improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both install new flooring — enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both update kitchen cabinets — enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both update bathrooms — enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagstaff Unified District (4192)
• NCES district ID: 0402860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,510
• Composite: 21.11/100
• National rank: #8437
• State rank: #158 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Flagstaff

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #18308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C- Housing B Health & safety C+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flagstaff, AZ
• County: Coconino County · 91,667 people
• City population: 91,667
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 37,312
• Household income: $64,626
• Rent vs Own: 63.2% rent · 36.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3117.0

Population outlook (Coconino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 150,645 people
• By 2030: 156,857 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 168,714 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 181,082 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 218,399 · +45.0%
• By 2100: 238,853 · +58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 15% Native American 12% Two or more races 9% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Coconino

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.2% · R 39.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.9pp toward D · 2008: 17.0pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+19.4 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -488.37%
• Current HPI: 393.2551
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.55%
• Metro: Flagstaff, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-10.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Price Changed $165,000 NAZMLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $185,000 NAZMLS