438 Hartford Pike · Dayville, CT 06241

$150,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,304 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1910 3,484 sqft lot ↓ 17% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Sale includes property located at 442 Hartford Pike also. Zoned General Commercial. Multi family that need to be completely renovated or torn down. No interior access

Key facts

• 3,484 sq ft lot
• Built 1910
• Listed 55 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($39k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Killingly School District (rural): math 21% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #119 of 153 in CT (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 149 units permitted in Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $150k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 93.84%
• DSCR: 5.18
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 93.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.32×
• Total profit: $181,381
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 95.8%
• Equity multiple: 11.07×
• Total profit: $422,881
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06241

• Home prices YoY: -14.2%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,296 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $602/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,112
• Net cashflow: $3,229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,209

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 34%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1.5	$5,296
Total (2 units)			$5,296

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
387 Putnam Pike Killingly, CT	3.0	1.0	2392	$1,800	$0.75	1d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-03-06
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-01-10
   listed $150,000 Active
3. 2024-09-29
   historical
4. 2024-09-11
   listed $80,000 Active
5. 2013-05-06
   soldstatus $30,000
6. 2013-05-03
   soldstatus $30,000
7. 2013-02-23
   listed $59,900
8. 2013-01-12
   historical
9. 2012-07-12
   listed $59,900
10. 2011-10-08
    historical
11. 2011-04-09
    listed $114,900
12. 2011-04-08
    historical
13. 2010-10-08
    listed $114,900
14. 2010-10-06
    historical
15. 2009-06-30
    listed $114,900
16. 2009-06-30
    historical
17. 2009-03-01
    listed $179,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $602 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,906 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,304/yr (+$109/mo · 216.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 54% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,552
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$602
• − Insurance: −$1,416
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,084
• − Management: −$5,084
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $38,599
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$9,264
• After-tax cash flow: $29,484/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Killingly School District
• NCES district ID: 0902070
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $55,485
• Composite: 28.71/100
• National rank: #6684
• State rank: #119 of 153 in CT

Livability — Dayville

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dayville, CT
• Population (ZIP): 6,317

Population outlook (Northeastern Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 104,160

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 20% Romanian 7% Russian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Northeastern Connecticut

• 2024 margin: R (+15.4) · D 41.5% · R 57.0% · Other 1.5%
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.86%
• Current HPI: 216.1835
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

-16.6% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-01-10 Listed $150,000 Smart MLS
• 2024-09-29 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2024-09-11 Listed $80,000 Smart MLS
• 2013-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2013-05-03 Sold (MLS) $30,000 Smart MLS
• 2013-02-23 Listed $59,900 Smart MLS
• 2013-01-12 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2012-07-12 Listed $59,900 Smart MLS
• 2011-10-08 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2011-04-09 Listed $114,900 Smart MLS
• 2011-04-08 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2010-10-08 Listed $114,900 Smart MLS
• 2010-10-06 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2009-06-30 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2009-06-30 Listed $114,900 Smart MLS
• 2009-03-01 Listed $179,900 Smart MLS

Property tax history

-2.6%/yr

Latest (2023): $602 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.