21 Dogwood Rd · Burnside, KY 42519

$239,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 846 sqft · Other public records · 93 Days on market

Built 2000 0.34 ac lot $284/sqft · 65% above area Est $290k · 17% under $267/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• Cash flow +4.5/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The HOA has a Capital Reserve Fund one-time fee that is currently charged at 25% of the HOA assessment. Gate access code is required for entry.

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Community pool
• Built 2000

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-617 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (45.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (41.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (45.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#141 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pulaski County (town): math 43% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #17 of 165 in KY (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 117 units permitted in Pulaski County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $240k implies a 128% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,918 (45.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.02%
• DSCR: 0.51
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,318
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -17.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.19% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $18,723
• Equity at exit: $138,771

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $89,532
• Equity at exit: $241,867

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42519

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,413 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,302/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$267
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $-617

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,194

Max offer price $130,918

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-481	-5% $-549	+0% $-617	+5% $-685	+10% $-753
Rent	-10% $-729	-5% $-673	+0% $-617	+5% $-561	+10% $-505
Rate	-1.0pp $-496	-0.5pp $-556	base $-617	+0.5pp $-679	+1.0pp $-742

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $267 · $3,204/yr

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,900 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $239,900 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,900 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,900 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $239,900 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,900 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $239,900 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,900 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $239,900 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,900 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,900 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,900 Active 72 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,900 Active 71 DOM
18. 2026-03-20
    listed $239,900 Active 143-char remark

    Show marketing remark (143 chars)

    The HOA has a Capital Reserve Fund one-time fee that is currently charged at 25% of the HOA assessment. Gate access code is required for entry.

19. 2022-12-29
    historical
20. 2018-09-10
    soldstatus $105,000
21. 2018-09-10
    soldstatus $105,000
22. 2018-04-10
    listed $109,900
23. 2017-12-31
    historical
24. 2017-05-19
    listed $109,900
25. 2015-04-25
    listed $109,900
26. 2014-12-04
    historical
27. 2014-03-10
    listed $119,900
28. 2006-10-27
    soldstatus $120,000
29. 2002-02-01
    historical
30. 2001-07-01
    listed $88,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,302 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,063 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: +$761/yr (+$63/mo · 58.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,961
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$1,302
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,357
• − Management: −$1,357
• − HOA: −$3,204
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$11,875
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,850
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,553/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pulaski County
• NCES district ID: 2104950
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,366
• Composite: 39.69/100
• National rank: #3906
• State rank: #17 of 165 in KY

Livability — Burnside

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #6774

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,800

Population outlook (Pulaski County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,414 people
• By 2030: 65,828 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 65,972 · +0.9%
• By 2050: 65,108 · -0.5%
• By 2075: 61,647 · -5.8%
• By 2100: 53,613 · -18.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Pulaski

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.2) · D 16.9% · R 82.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.9pp toward R · 2008: -55.4pp · 2024: -65.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.2 2020: R+62.7 2016: R+66.7 2012: R+60.5 2008: R+55.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.19%
• Current HPI: 358.2137
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+172.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $239,900 ImagineMLS
• 2022-12-29 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2018-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2018-09-10 Sold (MLS) $105,000 ImagineMLS
• 2018-04-10 Listed $109,900 ImagineMLS
• 2017-12-31 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2017-05-19 Listed $109,900 ImagineMLS
• 2015-04-25 Listed $109,900 ImagineMLS
• 2014-12-04 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2014-03-10 Listed $119,900 ImagineMLS
• 2006-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2002-02-01 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2001-07-01 Listed $88,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,302 · +25.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.