626 W Division St · Springfield, MO 65803

$81,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,333 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 1910 3,920 sqft lot $61/sqft · 56% below area Est $132k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home located a couple blocks from Cox North Hospital and Commercial Street Historic District with easy access to North Kansas Expressway. The home includes a covered front porch, one bedroom on the main level, two bedrooms upstairs, and an unfinished basement. Property is being sold as-is.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Unfinished basement
• 3,920 sq ft lot

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $81k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $319 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $81k).
• Recommended offer: $76k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 4.6% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#57 in MO, #4,121 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Springfield R-XII (urban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #174 of 324 in MO (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 394 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $560 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $76,140 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.85%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $132,473
• List price: $81,000
• Delta: -38.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1890 N Douglas Ave	0.43mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,250 (-6%)	4mo	$174,900	$140	57
1344 N Grant Ave	0.17mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,454 (+9%)	19mo	$120,000	$83	56
1863 N Grant Ave	0.38mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,140 (-14%)	2mo	$149,900	$131	52
424 E Locust St	0.54mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,256 (-6%)	6mo	$159,900	$127	51
937 N Missouri Ave	0.55mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,207 (-10%)	0mo	$180,000	$149	49
1322 N Benton Ave	0.62mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,386 (+4%)	13mo	$209,900	$151	44
1607 N Washington Ave	0.67mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,195 (-10%)	6mo	$164,500	$138	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $8,494
• Equity at exit: $12,077

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $39,132
• Equity at exit: $7,003

Cash invested: $22,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65803

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 394
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,062 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$425
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $744/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$223
• Net cashflow: $319

Break-even live

Break-even rent $659

Max offer price $81,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,250
• Closing costs: $2,430
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
616 W Webster St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.5	1178	$1,050	$0.89	13d	1	0.36mi
203 W Commercial St Unit 2F Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,150	$1.15	21d	1	0.41mi
317 E Chase St Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	915	$1,100	$1.20	43d	1	0.59mi
1406 W Calhoun St Unit B Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	885	$865	$0.98	23d	1	0.67mi
2120 N Johnston Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	880	$925	$1.05	43d	1	0.79mi
716 E Locust St Unit A Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	915	$850	$0.93	23d	1	0.83mi
2230 N Campbell Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	1084	$1,095	$1.01	43d	1	0.87mi
805 E Garfield St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	950	$950	$1.00	13d	1	1.01mi
1306 N Frisco Ave Apt A Springfield, MO	2.0	1.5–2.0	970	$995	$1.03	13d	19	1.12mi
2126 N Lexington Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	990	$895	$0.90	13d	1	1.14mi
235 N Market Ave Springfield, MO	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1350	$1,150	$0.85	13d	4	1.14mi
235 N Market Ave Springfield, MO	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1350	$1,150	$0.85	23d	5	1.14mi
138 Park Central Sq Springfield, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1083	$969	$0.89	13d	8	1.18mi
518 W College St Unit UBL 106 Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,375	$1.15	43d	1	1.20mi
211 S Market Ave Springfield, MO	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1442	$1,425	$0.99	23d	5	1.23mi
211 S Market Ave Springfield, MO	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1442	$1,425	$0.99	21d	5	1.23mi
535 W Walnut St Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1096	$1,495	$1.36	43d	1	1.27mi
623 W Walnut St Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1180	$1,300	$1.10	43d	1	1.27mi
2234 N Travis Ave Springfield, MO	1.0	1.0	890	$750	$0.84	43d	1	1.38mi
1200 W Walnut St Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1000	$995	$0.99	13d	3	1.42mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $81,000 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $81,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $81,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $81,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $81,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $81,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $81,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $81,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $81,000 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $81,000 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $81,000 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $81,000 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $81,000 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $81,000 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    price $81,000 312-char remark

    Show marketing remark (312 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home located a couple blocks from Cox North Hospital and Commercial Street Historic District with easy access to North Kansas Expressway. The home includes a covered front porch, one bedroom on the main level, two bedrooms upstairs, and an unfinished basement. Property is being sold as-is.

16. 2026-03-27
    listed $89,000 Active 312-char remark

    Show marketing remark (312 chars)

    3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home located a couple blocks from Cox North Hospital and Commercial Street Historic District with easy access to North Kansas Expressway. The home includes a covered front porch, one bedroom on the main level, two bedrooms upstairs, and an unfinished basement. Property is being sold as-is.

17. 2016-06-19
    listed $81,712
18. 2005-11-30
    soldstatus
19. 2004-05-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $744 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $786 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$41/yr (+$3/mo · 5.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,745
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,537
• − Property taxes: −$744
• − Insurance: −$405
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,020
• − Management: −$1,020
• − Depreciation: −$2,356
• Taxable income: $2,663
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$639
• After-tax cash flow: $3,183/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield R-XII
• NCES district ID: 2928860
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,886
• Composite: 32.45/100
• National rank: #5717
• State rank: #174 of 324 in MO

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #4121

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, MO
• County: Greene County · 244,327 people
• City population: 223,044
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 42,882
• Household income: $50,572
• Rent vs Own: 45.0% rent · 55.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1305.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.08%
• Current HPI: 205.0439
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.24%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-0.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $81,000 SOMO
• 2026-03-27 Listed $89,000 SOMO
• 2016-06-19 Listed $81,712 SOMO
• 2005-11-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-05-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $744 · +16.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.