8209 Orchard Ave · Warren, MI 48089

$94,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1920 3,485 sqft lot $132/sqft · 9% above area Est $109k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this cozy and well-maintained 4-bedroom bungalow located in the desirable South Warren neighborhood! This charming home offers a warm and inviting layout, perfect for both first-time homebuyers and savvy investors. Featuring spacious bedrooms, a comfortable living area, and plenty of natural light throughout, the property provides a great balance of functionality and comfort. The home has been well cared for, making it move-in ready with plenty of potential to add your own personal touches. Whether you're looking for an affordable place to call home or a solid investment opportunity, this property checks all the boxes - with rental potential of around $1,300 per month. Don't miss your chance to own a versatile property in a prime location - whether you're looking to settle in or generate steady rental income, this opportunity won't last long!

Key facts

• 3,485 sq ft lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 31 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $596 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.8% vs local median 5.3% in Warren — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in MI, #4,491 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities D, employment D.
• Van Dyke Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #512 of 540 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 160 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $95k implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $92,053 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.94%
• DSCR: 2.20
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $108,929
• List price: $94,900
• Delta: -12.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8701 Toepfer Rd	0.32mi	3/1.0 (-1)	720 (0%)	3mo	$80,000	$111	78
8284 Dodge Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0 (-1)	740 (+3%)	2mo	$100,000	$135	66
8302 Studebaker Ave	0.15mi	3/1.0 (-1)	786 (+9%)	12mo	$70,950	$90	63
7034 Yacht Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0 (-1)	732 (+2%)	10mo	$119,000	$163	59
20225 Terrel St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (-1)	757 (+5%)	4mo	$43,000	$57	52
11052 Studebaker Ave	0.44mi	3/1.0 (-1)	694 (-4%)	21mo	$134,000	$193	51
21367 Mac Arthur Blvd	0.24mi	3/1.0 (-1)	814 (+13%)	14mo	$133,000	$163	50
11417 Sherman Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0 (-1)	714 (-1%)	12mo	$93,000	$130	50
8405 Jackson Ave	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	816 (+13%)	6mo	$65,304	$80	47
20220 Bramford St	0.67mi	3/1.0 (-1)	789 (+10%)	9mo	$130,000	$165	40
20248 Terrell St	0.64mi	3/1.0 (-1)	789 (+10%)	15mo	$55,000	$70	36
8693 Paige Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0 (-1)	813 (+13%)	20mo	$145,000	$178	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $22,552
• Equity at exit: $14,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $68,305
• Equity at exit: $8,205

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48089

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,609 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $596

Break-even live

Break-even rent $854

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 865-char remark

   Show marketing remark (885 chars)

   Welcome to this cozy and well-maintained 4-bedroom bungalow located in the desirable South Warren neighborhood! This charming home offers a warm and inviting layout, perfect for both first-time homebuyers and savvy investors. Featuring spacious bedrooms, a comfortable living area, and plenty of natural light throughout, the property provides a great balance of functionality and comfort. The home has been well cared for, making it move-in ready with plenty of potential to add your own personal touches. Whether you're looking for an affordable place to call home or a solid investment opportunity, this property checks all the boxes—with rental potential of around $1,300 per month. Don’t miss your chance to own a versatile property in a prime location—whether you're looking to settle in or generate steady rental income, this opportunity won’t last long!

2. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 885-char remark

   Show marketing remark (885 chars)

   Welcome to this cozy and well-maintained 4-bedroom bungalow located in the desirable South Warren neighborhood! This charming home offers a warm and inviting layout, perfect for both first-time homebuyers and savvy investors. Featuring spacious bedrooms, a comfortable living area, and plenty of natural light throughout, the property provides a great balance of functionality and comfort. The home has been well cared for, making it move-in ready with plenty of potential to add your own personal touches. Whether you're looking for an affordable place to call home or a solid investment opportunity, this property checks all the boxes—with rental potential of around $1,300 per month. Don’t miss your chance to own a versatile property in a prime location—whether you're looking to settle in or generate steady rental income, this opportunity won’t last long!

3. 2026-04-05
   listed $94,900 Active 885-char remark

   Show marketing remark (865 chars)

   Welcome to this cozy and well-maintained 4-bedroom bungalow located in the desirable South Warren neighborhood! This charming home offers a warm and inviting layout, perfect for both first-time homebuyers and savvy investors. Featuring spacious bedrooms, a comfortable living area, and plenty of natural light throughout, the property provides a great balance of functionality and comfort. The home has been well cared for, making it move-in ready with plenty of potential to add your own personal touches. Whether you're looking for an affordable place to call home or a solid investment opportunity, this property checks all the boxes - with rental potential of around $1,300 per month. Don't miss your chance to own a versatile property in a prime location - whether you're looking to settle in or generate steady rental income, this opportunity won't last long!

4. 2026-04-05
   listed $94,900 Active 865-char remark

   Show marketing remark (865 chars)

   Welcome to this cozy and well-maintained 4-bedroom bungalow located in the desirable South Warren neighborhood! This charming home offers a warm and inviting layout, perfect for both first-time homebuyers and savvy investors. Featuring spacious bedrooms, a comfortable living area, and plenty of natural light throughout, the property provides a great balance of functionality and comfort. The home has been well cared for, making it move-in ready with plenty of potential to add your own personal touches. Whether you're looking for an affordable place to call home or a solid investment opportunity, this property checks all the boxes - with rental potential of around $1,300 per month. Don't miss your chance to own a versatile property in a prime location - whether you're looking to settle in or generate steady rental income, this opportunity won't last long!

5. 2025-09-28
   historical $1,100
6. 2025-09-15
   listed $1,100
7. 2022-03-16
   soldstatus $34,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,650 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,650 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,309
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,545
• − Management: −$1,545
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $6,019
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,445
• After-tax cash flow: $5,713/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Van Dyke Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2634680
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $33,231
• Composite: 10.46/100
• National rank: #9784
• State rank: #512 of 540 in MI

Livability — Warren

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #171
• US rank: #4491

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warren, MI
• County: Macomb County · 638,552 people
• City population: 114,937
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 31,853
• Household income: $52,366
• Rent vs Own: 43.4% rent · 56.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1754.0

Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 31% Asian 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.46%
• Current HPI: 154.8325
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+179.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-06 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-05 Listed $94,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-05 Listed $94,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-09-28 Rental Removed $1,100 REALSOURCE
• 2025-09-15 Listed for Rent $1,100 REALSOURCE
• 2022-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,650 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.