405 Christian Ave · St. Louis, MO 63147

$50,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 140 Days on market

Built 1950 3,088 sqft lot $74/sqft · at area comps Est $49k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Adorable 2 bed 1 bath bungalow. Long term tenant who wants to stay! Please do not disturb tenant, showing with accepted offer only.

Key facts

• 3,088 sq ft lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 140 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $376 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($854 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.3% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $34k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.21%
• DSCR: 2.43
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $49,496
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: 1.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8572 Oriole Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	768 (+14%)	15mo	$34,999	$46	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $15,814
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.18×
• Total profit: $44,523
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63147

• Home prices YoY: -31.4%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $854 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $186/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $376

Break-even live

Break-even rent $378

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8612 Halls Ferry Rd Saint Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	625	$775	$1.24	4d	2	0.67mi
1131 Canaan Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	624	$900	$1.44	16d	1	1.00mi
605 Fremont Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$995	$1.33	43d	1	1.09mi
819 Gustav Ave Unit 832 B St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	550	$740	$1.35	43d	1	1.13mi
819 Gustav Ave Apt C St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	550	$800	$1.45	43d	1	1.13mi
819 Gustav Ave Apt A St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	550	$740	$1.35	23d	1	1.13mi
4908 W Florissant Ave Apt A St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	750	$695	$0.93	43d	1	1.32mi
4732 W Florissant Ave Unit 2nd St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	600	$650	$1.08	43d	1	1.42mi
849 River Trail Ct #102 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$825	$1.18	23d	1	1.44mi
849 River Trail Ct Apt 201 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$825	$1.18	43d	1	1.44mi
960 Raford Ct St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	23d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 140 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 135 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $50,000 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $50,000 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-03-16
    status Active 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    Adorable 2 bed 1 bath bungalow. Long term tenant who wants to stay! Please do not disturb tenant, showing with accepted offer only.

15. 2025-11-05
    status Pending 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    Adorable 2 bed 1 bath bungalow. Long term tenant who wants to stay! Please do not disturb tenant, showing with accepted offer only.

16. 2025-09-20
    listed $50,000 Active 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    Adorable 2 bed 1 bath bungalow. Long term tenant who wants to stay! Please do not disturb tenant, showing with accepted offer only.

17. 2015-08-21
    soldstatus Closed 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    This charming brick ranch style home featuring 2 bedroom and full basement. This home has tons of potential and is located close to schools, amenities and major thoroughfares. Schedule your showing today. See attachment for PAS requirements and WFHM offer submittal information in MLS document section.

18. 2015-07-21
    historical 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    This charming brick ranch style home featuring 2 bedroom and full basement. This home has tons of potential and is located close to schools, amenities and major thoroughfares. Schedule your showing today. See attachment for PAS requirements and WFHM offer submittal information in MLS document section.

19. 2015-07-07
    listed $5,900 Active 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    This charming brick ranch style home featuring 2 bedroom and full basement. This home has tons of potential and is located close to schools, amenities and major thoroughfares. Schedule your showing today. See attachment for PAS requirements and WFHM offer submittal information in MLS document section.

20. 1998-04-02
    soldstatus
21. 1997-12-02
    soldstatus
22. 1990-11-27
    soldstatus $34,000
23. 1990-07-05
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $186 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $485 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: +$299/yr (+$25/mo · 160.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,243
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$186
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$819
• − Management: −$819
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $3,912
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$939
• After-tax cash flow: $3,570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 8,173
• Household income: $41,182
• Rent vs Own: 42.0% rent · 58.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 418.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 92% White 5% Two or more races 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.51%
• Current HPI: 84.224
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-20 Listed $50,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-21 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-21 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-07 Listed $5,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-04-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-12-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1990-11-27 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records
• 1990-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-6.6%/yr

Latest (2023): $186 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.