408 Water St · Thornton, IL 60476

$195,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,417 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1954 7,503 sqft lot Est $187k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SPACIOUS FRAME 1 STORY HOME FEATURING 3 BEDROOMS, 2 BATHS, FAMILY ROOM WITH STONE FIREPLACE, DINING ROOM, 2 CAR DETACHED GARAGE AND A MUD ROOM.

Key facts

• Large family room
• Brick fireplace
• Open floorplan

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• BEAMED CEILING
• BRICK FIREPLACE
• MULTI-PURPOSE MUD ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession at closing or immediate
• HOA & community: No master association fees required

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (garage owned) with garage door opener; Two total parking spaces (including 2 garage spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One story; Fee simple ownership; Built before 1978
• Construction: Brick and frame construction; Asphalt roof; Estimated age 71–80 years
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 61 x 123; Less than 1/4 acre lot; School bus service and commuter train access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Kitchen on main level (13 x 9)
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level (12 x 12); Bedroom 2 on main level (12 x 11); Bedroom 3 on main level (11 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet in living areas and bedrooms; Other flooring in work room
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Built-in features; Crawl space basement; L-shaped dining area; Eight total rooms; One fireplace in the family room
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry (7 x 6); Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $195k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#183 in IL, #3,517 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $195k implies a 261% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $195,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.93%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $187,044
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
920 Sunnyside Ave	0.38mi	4/1.0	1,393 (-2%)	4mo	$173,000	$124	73
43 Blackhawk Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-1%)	14mo	$207,000	$148	70
59 Indianwood Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,506 (+6%)	5mo	$190,000	$126	67
315 Blackstone St	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,259 (-11%)	11mo	$125,000	$99	63
64 Indianwood Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,513 (+7%)	9mo	$170,500	$113	62
113 N Hunter St	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,204 (-15%)	0mo	$180,000	$150	56
17164 Louis Ave	0.72mi	5/2.5 (+1)	1,438 (+2%)	2mo	$190,000	$132	56
116 Cora Ct	0.30mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,323 (-7%)	16mo	$141,000	$107	54
921 Highland Ave	0.40mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,499 (+6%)	13mo	$205,000	$137	54
86 Indianwood Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (-8%)	15mo	$210,000	$162	53
107 N Kinzie St	0.28mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,269 (-10%)	17mo	$182,000	$143	48
304 S Hunter St	0.51mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (-12%)	13mo	$127,900	$102	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $34,850
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $115,931
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60476

• Home prices YoY: -20.4%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,202/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $1,043

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,630

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
705 W Fitzhenry Ct Glenwood, IL	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,950	$1.74	24d	1	1.49mi
705 W Fitzhenry Ct Glenwood, IL	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,950	$1.84	20d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $195,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,202 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,314 · $276/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,112/yr (+$93/mo · 50.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,202
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,832
• − Management: −$2,832
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $9,964
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,391
• After-tax cash flow: $10,127/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thornton Twp Hsd 205
• NCES district ID: 1738970
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 8% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,392
• Composite: 6.92/100
• National rank: #9976
• State rank: #594 of 620 in IL

Livability — Thornton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #183
• US rank: #3517

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Thornton, IL
• Population (ZIP): 1,876

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 3% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.92%
• Current HPI: 194.3119
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+261.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $195,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-21 Sold (MLS) $54,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-29 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-16 Listed $54,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2023): $2,202 · -34.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.