444 Stevens Ln · West Livingston, TX 77351

$143,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 2000 9,661 sqft lot $142/sqft · 19% above area Est $120k · 19% over $8/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and move-in ready, this 3-bedroom home offers comfortable living with a functional, open layout. The spacious living, dining, and kitchen area flows seamlessly together—perfect for everyday living or entertaining. With 1,008 square feet, this home features 1 full bath and an additional half bath for added convenience. The kitchen comes equipped with a refrigerator and range, and the washer and dryer are included—making your move even easier. Step outside to enjoy a large, fenced backyard with a covered patio, plenty of space for pets, play, or relaxing evenings. The home’s gray exterior with crisp white trim adds to its welcoming curb appeal. A great opportunity for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors—don’t miss this one!

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Fenced backyard
• 9,661 sq ft lot

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• COVERED PATIO
• WASHER AND DRYER INCLUDED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $143k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-36 ($-427/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (14.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.5% in West Livingston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,501 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Livingston ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #459 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1186 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $989 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $143k implies a 258% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,375 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.07%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $119,773
• List price: $143,000
• Delta: 19.39%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3661 Fm 3277	0.44mi	2/1.0	993 (-2%)	7mo	$99,900	$101	69
139 Bay Haven Blvd	0.47mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (+5%)	6mo	$220,000	$208	58
328 W Sherwood Dr	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,064 (+6%)	7mo	$85,000	$80	58
202 New Cove Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,140 (+13%)	12mo	$174,999	$154	53
131 S Rollingrock Dr	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+11%)	18mo	$129,900	$116	49
144 Little John	0.50mi	2/1.5	944 (-6%)	20mo	$99,900	$106	49
136 Bay Side St	0.59mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,056 (+5%)	23mo	$579,000	$548	41
300 Bay Haven Blvd	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,131 (+12%)	6mo	$90,000	$80	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-25,409
• Equity at exit: $21,322

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-24,932
• Equity at exit: $12,364

Cash invested: $40,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77351

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 1186
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,224 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$750
• Tax from tax record: −$185 /mo · $2,218/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $-36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,269

Max offer price $136,719

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,750
• Closing costs: $4,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $143,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $143,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $143,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $143,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $143,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $143,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $143,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $143,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $143,000 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $143,000 Active 64 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $143,000 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $143,000 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-05-08
    price $143,000 787-char remark

    Show marketing remark (787 chars)

    Charming and move-in ready, this 3-bedroom home offers comfortable living with a functional, open layout. The spacious living, dining, and kitchen area flows seamlessly together—perfect for everyday living or entertaining. With 1,008 square feet, this home features 1 full bath and an additional half bath for added convenience. The kitchen comes equipped with a refrigerator and range, and the washer and dryer are included—making your move even easier. Step outside to enjoy a large, fenced backyard with a covered patio, plenty of space for pets, play, or relaxing evenings. The home’s gray exterior with crisp white trim adds to its welcoming curb appeal. A great opportunity for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors—don’t miss this one!

14. 2026-04-15
    price $148,000 787-char remark

    Show marketing remark (787 chars)

    Charming and move-in ready, this 3-bedroom home offers comfortable living with a functional, open layout. The spacious living, dining, and kitchen area flows seamlessly together—perfect for everyday living or entertaining. With 1,008 square feet, this home features 1 full bath and an additional half bath for added convenience. The kitchen comes equipped with a refrigerator and range, and the washer and dryer are included—making your move even easier. Step outside to enjoy a large, fenced backyard with a covered patio, plenty of space for pets, play, or relaxing evenings. The home’s gray exterior with crisp white trim adds to its welcoming curb appeal. A great opportunity for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors—don’t miss this one!

15. 2026-03-30
    listed $152,000 Active 787-char remark

    Show marketing remark (787 chars)

    Charming and move-in ready, this 3-bedroom home offers comfortable living with a functional, open layout. The spacious living, dining, and kitchen area flows seamlessly together—perfect for everyday living or entertaining. With 1,008 square feet, this home features 1 full bath and an additional half bath for added convenience. The kitchen comes equipped with a refrigerator and range, and the washer and dryer are included—making your move even easier. Step outside to enjoy a large, fenced backyard with a covered patio, plenty of space for pets, play, or relaxing evenings. The home’s gray exterior with crisp white trim adds to its welcoming curb appeal. A great opportunity for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors—don’t miss this one!

16. 2023-06-06
    soldstatus
17. 2021-12-06
    soldstatus
18. 2003-04-10
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,218 · $185/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,617 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: +$399/yr (+$33/mo · 18.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,685
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,010
• − Property taxes: −$2,218
• − Insurance: −$715
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,175
• − Management: −$1,175
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$4,160
• Taxable loss: −$2,864
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$687
• After-tax cash flow: $261/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827780
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,531
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5767
• State rank: #459 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Livingston

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1501
• US rank: #25668

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 37,143 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 37,143
• Household income: $66,834
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.11%
• Current HPI: 178.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+257.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $143,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $148,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $152,000 HARMLS
• 2023-06-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-12-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,218 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.