4707 Strawberry Rd · Kenai, AK 99611

$250,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,224 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1967 0.84 ac lot $78/sqft · 44% below area Est $447k · 44% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One-of-a-kind fixer with 3,224sqft, a 1,000+sqft basement, and lg bonus loft! All 4 bedrooms have their own bathroom and tons of closet space. Multiple decks throughout! Giant windows bring in great natural light, and the layout is unique and functional. Basement foundation walls are slanted; this has been the case for years with no known additional movement noticed, per seller estate. Cash only.

Key facts

• Multiple decks
• Basement
• Unique layout

Tags

• BASEMENT
• BONUS LOFT
• MULTIPLE DECKS
• GIANT WINDOWS
• UNIQUE LAYOUT
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $60 ($721/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (9.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (9.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.7% in Kenai — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#38 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Kenai Peninsula Borough School District (rural): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #8 of 21 in AK (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 213 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Kenai Peninsula Borough in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenai Peninsula County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $226,305 (9.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.03%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $446,931
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -44.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4707 Strawberry Rd	0.00mi	4/4.0 (+1)	3,224 (0%)	0mo	$250,000	$78	95
565 Rance Ct	0.34mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,829 (-12%)	19mo	$399,900	$141	40
565 Robin Dr	0.59mi	3/2.5	2,924 (-9%)	23mo	$399,900	$137	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-36,648
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-26,843
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99611

• Home prices YoY: -30.6%
• Active inventory: 213
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,263 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,750/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,187

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 399-char remark

   Show marketing remark (399 chars)

   One-of-a-kind fixer with 3,224sqft, a 1,000+sqft basement, and lg bonus loft! All 4 bedrooms have their own bathroom and tons of closet space. Multiple decks throughout! Giant windows bring in great natural light, and the layout is unique and functional. Basement foundation walls are slanted; this has been the case for years with no known additional movement noticed, per seller estate. Cash only.

2. 2026-04-13
   price $250,000 399-char remark

   Show marketing remark (399 chars)

   One-of-a-kind fixer with 3,224sqft, a 1,000+sqft basement, and lg bonus loft! All 4 bedrooms have their own bathroom and tons of closet space. Multiple decks throughout! Giant windows bring in great natural light, and the layout is unique and functional. Basement foundation walls are slanted; this has been the case for years with no known additional movement noticed, per seller estate. Cash only.

3. 2026-03-20
   listed $275,000 Active 399-char remark

   Show marketing remark (399 chars)

   One-of-a-kind fixer with 3,224sqft, a 1,000+sqft basement, and lg bonus loft! All 4 bedrooms have their own bathroom and tons of closet space. Multiple decks throughout! Giant windows bring in great natural light, and the layout is unique and functional. Basement foundation walls are slanted; this has been the case for years with no known additional movement noticed, per seller estate. Cash only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,157
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,750
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,173
• − Management: −$2,173
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$3,465
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$832
• After-tax cash flow: $1,553/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenai Peninsula Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,704
• Composite: 36.71/100
• National rank: #4594
• State rank: #8 of 21 in AK

Livability — Kenai

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #14592

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kenai, AK
• Population (ZIP): 16,028

Population outlook (Kenai Peninsula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,736 people
• By 2030: 66,260 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 70,449 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 74,414 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 87,508 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 95,360 · +49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Two or more races 14% Native American 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Portuguese 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenai Peninsula

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.50%
• Current HPI: 169.2848
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $250,000 AKMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $275,000 AKMLS

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $400 · +18.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.