Manchester Plan · Bismarck, ND 58503

$207,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,269 sqft · Townhouse · 238 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Car wash bay
• Guest suite
• Garden plots

Tags

• ONE-LEVEL LIVING SPACE
• GUEST SUITE
• GARDEN PLOTS
• UNDERGROUND HEATED PARKING
• CAR WASH BAY
• FULLY SECURE BUILDING

🏗️ New construction. The $207,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $338,543.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $207k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-892 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in ND, #2,213 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary School (math 57% / reading 49%, grade C, #52 of 236 statewide, top 22%, 496 students, 5% FRL); Horizon Middle School (math 42% / reading 50%, grade D+, #13 of 35 statewide, top 35%, 1,044 students, 14% FRL); Century High School (math 43% / reading 63%, grade C-, #14 of 144 statewide, top 9%, 1,427 students, 12% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.8%/yr); 679 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 117d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 238 days — a 12% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $182,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 238 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.29%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 15.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $338,543
• List price: $207,000
• Delta: -38.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
713 Bremner Ave	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,334 (+5%)	4mo	$375,000	$281	59
706 Lasalle Dr E #5	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,147 (-10%)	0mo	$219,900	$192	55
829 Canada Ave #27	0.76mi	2/1.0	1,216 (-4%)	2mo	$202,000	$166	52
3719 Coleman St	1.03mi	2/2.0	1,184 (-7%)	3mo	$344,900	$291	51
829 Canada Ave #10	0.76mi	2/2.0	1,190 (-6%)	7mo	$220,000	$185	49
916 Lambton Ave #1	0.97mi	2/2.0	1,184 (-7%)	7mo	$239,900	$203	48
4916 Ottawa St #5	0.94mi	2/2.0	1,145 (-10%)	4mo	$215,000	$188	45
1123 E Lasalle Dr E	0.96mi	2/2.0	1,148 (-10%)	10mo	$214,900	$187	41
4912 Ottawa St #7	0.97mi	2/2.0	1,078 (-15%)	1mo	$224,000	$208	39
809 Canada Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,123 (-12%)	10mo	$275,000	$245	35
4010 Lockport St	1.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,399 (+10%)	10mo	$322,500	$231	35
942 Canada Ave	0.83mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,499 (+18%)	5mo	$315,000	$210	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-101,969
• Equity at exit: $50,478

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-117,776
• Equity at exit: $29,271

Cash invested: $94,792 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 17 active · 11 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.8 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $215,000 ($156/sqft)
• Median days on market: 238 d
• This list price: 41% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +70.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 58503

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Rents YoY: 11.8%
• Active inventory: 679
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,832 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,775
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$423 /mo · $5,078/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $-892

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,962

Max offer price $209,449

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-658	-5% $-775	+0% $-892	+5% $-1,009	+10% $-1,126
Rent	-10% $-1,037	-5% $-965	+0% $-892	+5% $-820	+10% $-747
Rate	-1.0pp $-722	-0.5pp $-806	base $-892	+0.5pp $-980	+1.0pp $-1,069

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,636
• Closing costs: $10,156
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4231 Serenity Ct Bismarck, ND	3.0	2.5	1562	$2,395	$1.53	116d	1	0.47mi
4227 Serenity Ct Bismarck, ND	3.0	2.5	1562	$2,395	$1.53	116d	1	0.47mi
4442 Serenity Ct Bismarck, ND	3.0	2.5	1544	$2,395	$1.55	116d	1	0.48mi
4201 Montreal St Bismarck, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1092	$1,546	$1.42	0d	12	0.55mi
4126A Normandy St Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.5	1468	$1,750	$1.19	116d	1	0.69mi
202 E Greenfield Ln Apt 208 Bismarck, ND	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	976	$1,725	$1.77	0d	6	0.77mi
220 E Greenfield Ln Unit B-402 Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.0	1141	$1,661	$1.46	116d	1	0.81mi
425 E Calgary Ave Bismarck, ND	2.0–3.0	2.0	1020	$1,326	$1.30	0d	4	1.05mi
3415 Montreal St Apt 202 Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.0	1061	$1,365	$1.29	5d	1	1.13mi
444 E Brandon Dr Bismarck, ND	2.0–3.0	2.0	900	$1,110	$1.23	116d	1	1.16mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $207,000

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Home design: Plan home (Manchester)Located on N Washington Street and Medora Ave, Bismarck, ND
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,269 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan named ManchesterActive listing

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $207,000 Active 238 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $207,000 Active 237 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $207,000 Active 235 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $207,000 Active 234 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $207,000 Active 233 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $207,000 Active 232 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $207,000 Active 231 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $207,000 Active 230 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $207,000 Active 229 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $207,000 Active 228 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $207,000 Active 227 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $207,000 Active 226 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $207,000 Active 220 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $207,000 Active 219 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $207,000 Active 218 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $207,000 Active 215 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $207,000 Active 214 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $207,000 Active 213 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $207,000 Active 212 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $207,000 Active 211 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $207,000 Active 210 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $207,000 Active 209 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $207,000 Active 208 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $207,000 Active 207 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $207,000 Active 206 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $207,000 Active 205 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $207,000 Active 204 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $207,000 Active 203 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $207,000 Active 202 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $207,000 Active 201 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $207,000 Active 200 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $207,000 Active 198 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $207,000 Active 197 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $207,000 Active 196 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $207,000 Active 195 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $207,000 Active 194 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $207,000 Active 193 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $207,000 Active 192 DOM
39. 2026-08-07
    days on market $207,000 Active 191 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $207,000 Active 190 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $207,000 Active 189 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $207,000 Active 188 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $207,000 Active 187 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $207,000 Active 184 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $207,000 Active 183 DOM
46. 2026-07-29
    days on market $207,000 Active 182 DOM
47. 2026-07-27
    days on market $207,000 Active 180 DOM
48. 2026-07-25
    days on market $207,000 Active 178 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $207,000 Active 177 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $207,000 Active 176 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,987
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,964
• − Property taxes: −$5,078
• − Insurance: −$1,693
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,759
• − Management: −$1,759
• − Depreciation: −$9,849
• Taxable loss: −$17,114
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,107
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,598/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $63,450–$114,210 screening

This property requires extensive repairs and updates across all systems and areas, significantly impacting its current condition and value. Significant investments in roof, exterior, interior, and mechanical upgrades are necessary to bring the property up to a livable and marketable standard.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — No visible roof structure or condition.
• Major exterior — No visible siding or paint condition.
• Major flooring — No visible flooring condition.
• Major interior walls/paint — No visible interior walls or paint condition.
• Major bathrooms — No visible bathrooms.
• Major kitchen — No visible kitchen.
• Major systems — No visible HVAC/mechanicals.
• Major landscaping/curb appeal — No visible landscaping or curb appeal.
• Major foundation/structure — No visible foundation or structure condition.

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof replacement — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both exterior siding and paint — New siding and paint would enhance curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both flooring and interior walls/paint — Upgrading flooring and repainting interior walls would improve the home's condition and value. ↑
• Both bathroom and kitchen updates — Modernizing bathrooms and kitchens would increase the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Both HVAC and mechanicals — Upgrading HVAC and mechanicals would improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing value. ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Landscaping and curb appeal improvements would enhance the home's exterior and value. ↑
• Both foundation and structure repairs — Addressing foundation and structure issues would ensure the home's structural integrity and value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Liberty Elementary School C ND #52/236 Nat'l #10,986/41,679 Middle Horizon Middle School D+ ND #13/35 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Century High School C- ND #14/144 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck 1
• NCES district ID: 3800014
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,649
• Composite: 36.76/100
• National rank: #4577
• State rank: #25 of 53 in ND

B Composite livability gradescore 79/100

Livability — Bismarck

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #2213

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bismarck, ND
• County: Burleigh County · 119,359 people
• City population: 97,300
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 37,683
• Household income: $102,333
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Burleigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,359 people
• By 2030: 133,047 · +11.5%
• By 2040: 161,545 · +35.3%
• By 2050: 191,960 · +60.8%
• By 2075: 274,569 · +130.0%
• By 2100: 350,910 · +194.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 17% Scotch-Irish 4% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Burleigh

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.5% · R 70.7% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.6pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+40.2 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.96%
• Current HPI: 223.9683
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.79%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $207,000

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Home design: Plan home (Manchester)Located on N Washington Street and Medora Ave, Bismarck, ND
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,269 (listed)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan named ManchesterActive listing