2406 Briensburg Tatumsville Rd · Calvert City, KY 42025

$154,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1950 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Classic old style farmhouse on 2 beautiful, serene acres 10 minutes from KY lake. Electric gas pack central hvac with new duct work, window ac upstairs. New 40 year roof shingles. Partially furnished with appliances (living room seating is all that& apos; s needed, no dishwasher). Double car garage (gravel floor) double carport, single lawn equipment garage (concrete floor) large equipment shed.

Key facts

• New roof shingles
• Double car garage
• Serene acres

Tags

• OLD STYLE FARMHOUSE
• SERENE ACRES
• ELECTRIC GAS PACK CENTRAL HVAC
• NEW DUCT WORK
• NEW ROOF SHINGLES
• DOUBLE CAR GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $375 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.4% in Calvert City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#312 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Marshall County (rural): math 29% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #73 of 165 in KY (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 178 active listings in the ZIP; 121 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Marshall County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,253 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.38%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $73,920
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2983 Briensburg Tatumsville Rd	0.55mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (-6%)	2mo	$70,000	$56	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $108,284
• Equity at exit: $139,546

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.92×
• Total profit: $300,143
• Equity at exit: $300,937

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42025

• Home prices YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,830 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,324/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,355

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $154,900 Under Contract 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,900 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,900 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $154,900 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $154,900 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,900 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,900 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $154,900 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $154,900 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,900 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,900 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,900 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $154,900 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    listed $154,900 Active 391-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,959
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$2,324
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,757
• − Management: −$1,757
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable income: $2,165
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$519
• After-tax cash flow: $3,982/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This classic farmhouse is in good condition with a new roof and a well-maintained exterior. It offers good potential for cosmetic updates and improvements to the interior and landscaping to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replace flooring — New flooring improves the home's appearance and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Install modern kitchen appliances — A modern kitchen with updated appliances can significantly boost both resale and rental value.
• Both Update bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms with updated fixtures can enhance the home's appeal and increase its value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters.
• Both Install smart home technology — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and potentially command a higher price or rent.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace flooring — New flooring improves the home's appearance and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install modern kitchen appliances — A modern kitchen with updated appliances can significantly boost both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Update bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms with updated fixtures can enhance the home's appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Install smart home technology — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and potentially command a higher price or rent. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marshall County
• NCES district ID: 2103810
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $45,324
• Composite: 28.62/100
• National rank: #6710
• State rank: #73 of 165 in KY

Livability — Calvert City

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #312
• US rank: #14965

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 19,238

Population outlook (Marshall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,647 people
• By 2030: 30,276 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 29,232 · -4.6%
• By 2050: 27,940 · -8.8%
• By 2075: 25,289 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 21,188 · -30.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marshall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.7) · D 21.0% · R 77.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.0pp toward R · 2008: -24.7pp · 2024: -56.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.7 2020: R+52.4 2016: R+51.9 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+24.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.11%
• Current HPI: 288.75
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $154,900 FSBO.com

Property tax history

-46.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $33 · -46.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.