12812 Blue Reflection Ave · Ruskin, FL 34219

$363,470

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,662 sqft · Land · 160 Days on market

Built 2026 8,235 sqft lot $71/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The charming one-story, 3-bedroom, 2-bath Chapman Plan home features an open layout, perfect for modern living. Enjoy a spacious backyard, ideal for relaxing, entertaining, or play, with backline of property fence included.

Key facts

• Expansive clubhouse
• Resort-style pool
• Nature trails

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME
• MASTER-PLANNED COMMUNITY
• EXPANSIVE CLUBHOUSE
• RESORT-STYLE POOL
• NATURE TRAILS
• PARK AND PLAYGROUND AREAS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $3,261; Monthly HOA amount: $71.42
• HOA & community: HOA with FirstService Residential (monthly fee $71.42); Association approval required; Community features: fitness center, park, pool, sidewalks, deed restrictions, golf carts allowed, reclaimed water irrigation; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached garage with garage door opener; 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; Phone available; Underground utilities; Sprinkler using recycled water; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story; Northwest-facing; New construction (completed); Model: CHAPMAN
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Builder: Pulte Home Company, LLC; Builder license CBC1262018; Projected completion date: February 19, 2026
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Sliding doors; Hurricane shutters; Pool (other type); Landscaped yard; Trees/landscaped; Oversized lot; Sidewalks; Paved driveway and roads

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Thermostat; In-wall pest / pest guard system; Walk-in closets; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $363k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-316 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (15.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (24.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $274k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbara A Harvey Elementary School (math 74% / reading 59%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 1,069 students, 33% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $274,220 (24.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.73%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-87,066
• Equity at exit: $54,195

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-132,731
• Equity at exit: $31,426

Cash invested: $101,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,742 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,906
• Tax from tax record: −$354 /mo · $4,251/yr
• Insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$576
• Net cashflow: $-316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,143

Max offer price $307,565

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-111	-5% $-214	+0% $-316	+5% $-419	+10% $-522
Rent	-10% $-533	-5% $-425	+0% $-316	+5% $-208	+10% $-100
Rate	-1.0pp $-133	-0.5pp $-224	base $-316	+0.5pp $-411	+1.0pp $-506

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,868
• Closing costs: $10,904
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10826 Sapphire Breeze Cv Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,500	$1.35	5d	1	0.08mi
10646 Hidden Banks Gln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,350	$1.56	18d	1	0.38mi
10473 Curving Creek Loop Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,500	$1.83	16d	1	0.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $363,470 Pending 160 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $363,470 Active 159 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $363,470 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $363,470 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $363,470 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $363,470 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $363,470 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $363,470 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $363,470 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $363,470 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $363,470 Active 145 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $363,470 Active 144 DOM
13. 2026-05-20
    price $363,470
14. 2026-05-18
    price $363,470 223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    The charming one-story, 3-bedroom, 2-bath Chapman Plan home features an open layout, perfect for modern living. Enjoy a spacious backyard, ideal for relaxing, entertaining, or play, with backline of property fence included.

15. 2026-05-16
    price $359,970 223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    The charming one-story, 3-bedroom, 2-bath Chapman Plan home features an open layout, perfect for modern living. Enjoy a spacious backyard, ideal for relaxing, entertaining, or play, with backline of property fence included.

16. 2026-05-11
    price $357,470 223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    The charming one-story, 3-bedroom, 2-bath Chapman Plan home features an open layout, perfect for modern living. Enjoy a spacious backyard, ideal for relaxing, entertaining, or play, with backline of property fence included.

17. 2026-05-08
    price $357,470
18. 2026-03-06
    price $362,470
19. 2026-02-27
    price $362,470 223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    The charming one-story, 3-bedroom, 2-bath Chapman Plan home features an open layout, perfect for modern living. Enjoy a spacious backyard, ideal for relaxing, entertaining, or play, with backline of property fence included.

20. 2026-01-11
    price $360,570 223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    The charming one-story, 3-bedroom, 2-bath Chapman Plan home features an open layout, perfect for modern living. Enjoy a spacious backyard, ideal for relaxing, entertaining, or play, with backline of property fence included.

21. 2026-01-09
    price $360,570
22. 2026-01-07
    listed $365,570 Active
23. 2026-01-06
    price $365,570 223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    The charming one-story, 3-bedroom, 2-bath Chapman Plan home features an open layout, perfect for modern living. Enjoy a spacious backyard, ideal for relaxing, entertaining, or play, with backline of property fence included.

24. 2025-11-24
    price $364,570 223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    The charming one-story, 3-bedroom, 2-bath Chapman Plan home features an open layout, perfect for modern living. Enjoy a spacious backyard, ideal for relaxing, entertaining, or play, with backline of property fence included.

25. 2025-11-07
    price $377,570 223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    The charming one-story, 3-bedroom, 2-bath Chapman Plan home features an open layout, perfect for modern living. Enjoy a spacious backyard, ideal for relaxing, entertaining, or play, with backline of property fence included.

26. 2025-11-07
    price $377,300 223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    The charming one-story, 3-bedroom, 2-bath Chapman Plan home features an open layout, perfect for modern living. Enjoy a spacious backyard, ideal for relaxing, entertaining, or play, with backline of property fence included.

27. 2025-11-07
    price $377,570 223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    The charming one-story, 3-bedroom, 2-bath Chapman Plan home features an open layout, perfect for modern living. Enjoy a spacious backyard, ideal for relaxing, entertaining, or play, with backline of property fence included.

28. 2025-10-23
    listed $377,300 Active 223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (223 chars)

    The charming one-story, 3-bedroom, 2-bath Chapman Plan home features an open layout, perfect for modern living. Enjoy a spacious backyard, ideal for relaxing, entertaining, or play, with backline of property fence included.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,251 · $354/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,251 · $354/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,906
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,360
• − Property taxes: −$4,251
• − Insurance: −$1,817
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,633
• − Management: −$2,633
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$10,574
• Taxable loss: −$10,213
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,451
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,346/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $363,470 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $363,470 Zillow
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $359,970 Zillow
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $357,470 Zillow
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $357,470 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $362,470 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $362,470 Zillow
• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $360,570 Zillow
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $360,570 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-07 Listed $365,570 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $365,570 Zillow
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $364,570 Zillow
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $377,570 Zillow
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $377,300 Zillow
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $377,570 Zillow
• 2025-10-23 Listed $377,300 Zillow

Property tax history

+51.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,251 · +51.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.