312 S Lake St · Blytheville, AR 72315

$89,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,868 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1954 8,276 sqft lot $48/sqft · 27% above area Est $70k · 27% over ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.8/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

312 S LAKE STREET BLYTHEVILLE- Spacious property with endless POTENTIAL. Welcome to this unique and versatile property offering space, functionality, and opportunity! This home features a large living room perfect for gathering and entertaining, along with a huge den or fourth bedroom to relax or customize your needs. The property includes two kitchens, making it ideal for multi-generational living or added convenience. you'll also find one fully remodeled bathroom, plus large laundry area with an additional 3/4 bath. Enjoy nice flooring thru out, along with practical extras like a Generic Generator, new storage building a portable 1-car carport and a covered porch to enjoy the outdoors. Outback is a small additional house that needs some work-perfect for a guest space, rental opportunity, or project for added value.

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Listed 78 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $581 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 6.8% in Blytheville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#168 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, schools F, crime F.
• Blytheville School District (town): math 8% / reading 12% proficiency, ranked #233 of 238 in AR (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 96% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 69 units permitted in Mississippi County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mississippi County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,660 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.99%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $69,851
• List price: $89,000
• Delta: 27.41%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
535 SW Parkway Dr	0.23mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,690 (-10%)	15mo	$45,000	$27	54
723 E Cherry St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,712 (-8%)	7mo	$65,000	$38	53
810 Robindale Rd	0.65mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,953 (+5%)	7mo	$149,900	$77	52
803 Lauderdale Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,803 (-4%)	9mo	$71,500	$40	49
709 E Main St	0.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (-12%)	12mo	$99,900	$61	46
135 Marianne	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,610 (-14%)	2mo	$280,000	$174	42
800 N Franklin St	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (+2%)	22mo	$65,000	$34	40
123 N Crescent Dr	0.74mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,760 (-6%)	16mo	$130,000	$74	37
807 Robindale Rd	0.60mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,595 (-15%)	12mo	$33,500	$21	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $22,577
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.70×
• Total profit: $67,232
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72315

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,419 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $430/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $581

Break-even live

Break-even rent $683

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
812 Melody Ln Blytheville, AR	3.0	2.0	1585	$1,500	$0.95	43d	1	0.73mi
1219 E Cherry St Blytheville, AR	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,295	$1.00	21d	1	0.78mi
1529 Basin St Blytheville, AR	4.0	1.5	1444	$1,450	$1.00	21d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,000 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,000 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $89,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $89,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $89,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $89,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $89,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-05-04
    price $89,000 828-char remark

    Show marketing remark (828 chars)

    312 S LAKE STREET BLYTHEVILLE- Spacious property with endless POTENTIAL. Welcome to this unique and versatile property offering space, functionality, and opportunity! This home features a large living room perfect for gathering and entertaining, along with a huge den or fourth bedroom to relax or customize your needs. The property includes two kitchens, making it ideal for multi-generational living or added convenience. you'll also find one fully remodeled bathroom, plus large laundry area with an additional 3/4 bath. Enjoy nice flooring thru out, along with practical extras like a Generic Generator, new storage building a portable 1-car carport and a covered porch to enjoy the outdoors. Outback is a small additional house that needs some work-perfect for a guest space, rental opportunity, or project for added value.

11. 2026-03-23
    listed $99,900 Active 828-char remark

    Show marketing remark (828 chars)

    312 S LAKE STREET BLYTHEVILLE- Spacious property with endless POTENTIAL. Welcome to this unique and versatile property offering space, functionality, and opportunity! This home features a large living room perfect for gathering and entertaining, along with a huge den or fourth bedroom to relax or customize your needs. The property includes two kitchens, making it ideal for multi-generational living or added convenience. you'll also find one fully remodeled bathroom, plus large laundry area with an additional 3/4 bath. Enjoy nice flooring thru out, along with practical extras like a Generic Generator, new storage building a portable 1-car carport and a covered porch to enjoy the outdoors. Outback is a small additional house that needs some work-perfect for a guest space, rental opportunity, or project for added value.

12. 2025-11-24
    historical
13. 2025-10-15
    price $119,900
14. 2025-10-14
    price $119,900
15. 2025-06-17
    price $129,900
16. 2025-06-16
    price $129,900
17. 2025-04-16
    price $144,900
18. 2025-04-16
    price $144,900
19. 2024-12-23
    listed $148,900 Active
20. 2024-12-23
    listed $148,900 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $430 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $570 · $47/mo
• Expected delta: +$139/yr (+$12/mo · 32.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,028
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$430
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,362
• − Management: −$1,362
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $5,853
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,405
• After-tax cash flow: $5,571/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blytheville School District
• NCES district ID: 0503320
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 12% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $33,356
• Composite: 8.02/100
• National rank: #9922
• State rank: #233 of 238 in AR

Livability — Blytheville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #168
• US rank: #14094

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Blytheville, AR
• City population: 20,100
• Population (ZIP): 20,100

Population outlook (Mississippi County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,959 people
• By 2030: 36,401 · -6.6%
• By 2040: 31,526 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 27,058 · -30.5%
• By 2075: 17,847 · -54.2%
• By 2100: 11,024 · -71.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 42% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Mississippi

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.4% · R 65.0% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.4pp toward R · 2008: -2.2pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+22.2 2016: R+10.5 2012: R+1.1 2008: R+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.32%
• Current HPI: 175.5603
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-40.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $89,000 EARA
• 2026-03-23 Listed $99,900 EARA
• 2025-11-24 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $119,900 CARMLS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $119,900 NEABOR MLS
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $129,900 CARMLS
• 2025-06-16 Price Changed $129,900 NEABOR MLS
• 2025-04-16 Price Changed $144,900 CARMLS
• 2025-04-16 Price Changed $144,900 NEABOR MLS
• 2024-12-23 Listed $148,900 NEABOR MLS
• 2024-12-23 Listed $148,900 CARMLS

Property tax history

+341.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $430 · +341.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.