Is 5267 Celestial Ct in Iowa Colony, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 5.2% cap rate and $-687/mo modeled cash flow at a $285,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 5267 Celestial Ct?

The modeled cap rate is 5.2% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,164/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 41.87

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +8.3/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Schools +3.9/10.0
Livability +3.2/5.0
1% rule +2.6/10.0
Rent growth +2.6/5.0
DSCR +2.3/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$285,000

5267 Celestial Ct · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,446 sqft · SingleFamily · 138 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $197/sqft · 47% below area Est $534k · 47% under

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Carriagehouse | 3 Bedroom | 2 Bathroom | 1-car Garage | Covered Patio

Key facts

Covered patio
Carriagehouse
Parking

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-687 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (34.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (24.1% below list).
Recommended offer: $186k (34.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.2% in Iowa Colony — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 1917 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,617 (34.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.76% ✗
Cap rate: 5.20%
Cash-on-cash: -3.91%
DSCR: 0.83
GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $534,203
List price: $285,000
Delta: -46.65%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13202 Hayden Peak Dr	1.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,506 (+4%)	2mo	$289,888	$192	52
13203 Hayden Peak Dr	1.11mi	3/2.0	1,501 (+4%)	8mo	$291,990	$195	52
12915 Green Valley Dr	1.03mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+11%)	7mo	$325,000	$203	42
13012 Green Valley Dr	1.04mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+11%)	10mo	$279,900	$175	38
13207 Hayden Peak Dr	1.12mi	3/2.0	1,640 (+13%)	8mo	$317,205	$193	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -38.5%
Equity multiple: -0.19×
Total profit: $-95,065
Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

IRR: -83.6%
Equity multiple: -0.99×
Total profit: $-159,095
Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 2 active
Median asking: $299,995 ($187/sqft)
Median days on market: 122 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: +98.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

Rents YoY: 0.4%
Active inventory: 1917
Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,164 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,275/yr
Insurance: −$119
Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
Net cashflow: $-687

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,033

Max offer price $185,617

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-490	-5% $-588	+0% $-687	+5% $-785	+10% $-884
Rent	-10% $-858	-5% $-772	+0% $-687	+5% $-601	+10% $-516
Rate	-1.0pp $-543	-0.5pp $-614	base $-687	+0.5pp $-761	+1.0pp $-836

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $71,250
Closing costs: $8,550
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13023 Pleasant Valley Dr Rosharon, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	135d	1	1.08mi

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info: List price $280,000

Exterior

Parking: 1 parking space
Home design: Carriagehouse planSingle-family residenceActive listing
Exterior features: Living area approximately 1446

Interior

Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
Interior features: Spec home (new construction)

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-30

days on market $285,000 Active 138 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $285,000 Active 137 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $285,000 Active 136 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $285,000 Active 135 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $285,000 Active 134 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $285,000 Active 133 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $285,000 Active 132 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $285,000 Active 131 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $285,000 Active 130 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $285,000 Active 129 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $285,000 Active 128 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $285,000 Active 127 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $285,000 Active 126 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $285,000 Active 125 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $285,000 Active 124 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $285,000 Active 123 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $285,000 Active 122 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $285,000 Active 121 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $285,000 Active 120 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $285,000 Active 119 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $285,000 Active 113 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $285,000 Active 112 DOM
2026-09-02

days on market $285,000 Active 110 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $285,000 Active 108 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $285,000 Active 106 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $285,000 Active 105 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $285,000 Active 104 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $285,000 Active 103 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $285,000 Active 102 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $285,000 Active 101 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $285,000 Active 100 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $285,000 Active 99 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $285,000 Active 98 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $285,000 Active 97 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $285,000 Active 96 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $285,000 Active 95 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $285,000 Active 94 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $285,000 Active 93 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $285,000 Active 92 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $285,000 Active 91 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $285,000 Active 90 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $285,000 Active 89 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $285,000 Active 88 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $285,000 Active 87 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $285,000 Active 86 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $285,000 Active 85 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $285,000 Active 83 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $285,000 Active 82 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $285,000 Active 81 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $285,000 Active 80 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 69% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $25,964
− Mortgage interest: −$15,964
− Property taxes: −$4,275
− Insurance: −$6,544
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,077
− Management: −$2,077
− Depreciation: −$8,291
Taxable loss: −$13,264

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,183
After-tax cash flow: $-5,058/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It has the potential to be a great investment with minor updates to the exterior and interior.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value ↑
Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile in living areas — Hardwood or tile flooring can increase both resale and rental value ↑
Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase both resale and rental value by adding modern amenities ↑

Schools (NCES district)

District: Alvin ISD
NCES district ID: 4808090
Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
Median HH income: $66,740
Composite: 38.96/100
National rank: #4080
State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Iowa Colony

Score: 64/100
State rank: #757
US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
City population: 52,747
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 52,747
Household income: $119,287
Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 420,414 people
By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
Current HPI: 198.6559
Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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