Is 5267 Celestial Ct in Iowa Colony, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 5.0% cap rate and $-739/mo modeled cash flow at a $285,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 5267 Celestial Ct?

The modeled cap rate is 5.0% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,097/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 40.81

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +7.8/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Schools +3.9/10.0
Livability +3.2/5.0
Rent growth +2.6/5.0
1% rule +2.4/10.0
DSCR +1.9/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$285,000

5267 Celestial Ct · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,446 sqft · SingleFamily · 85 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $197/sqft · 45% below area Est $520k · 45% under

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Carriagehouse | 3 Bedroom | 2 Bathroom | 1-car Garage | Covered Patio

Key facts

Covered patio
Carriagehouse
Parking

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-739 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (37.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (26.4% below list).
Recommended offer: $178k (37.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 4.1% in Iowa Colony — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 1445 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,045 (37.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.74% ✗
Cap rate: 4.98%
Cash-on-cash: -4.70%
DSCR: 0.79
GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $519,621
List price: $285,000
Delta: -45.15%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13327 Prado Ridge Ln	1.17mi	3/2.0	1,427 (-1%)	3mo	$282,935	$198	61
13219 Padre Bay Ln	1.13mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+2%)	2mo	$299,990	$203	60
13327 Padre Bay Ln	1.25mi	3/2.0	1,492 (+3%)	1mo	$306,085	$205	59
2910 Rockwood Dr	1.26mi	3/2.0	1,582 (+9%)	1mo	$279,990	$177	48
12915 Green Valley Dr	1.03mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+11%)	4mo	$325,000	$203	44
13215 Padre Bay Ln	1.13mi	3/2.5	1,592 (+10%)	4mo	$284,990	$179	43
2429 Abbot Brook Dr	1.43mi	3/2.0	1,641 (+14%)	4mo	$210,000	$128	39
13219 Hayden Peak Dr	1.15mi	3/2.0	1,640 (+13%)	4mo	$318,200	$194	39
2919 Copper Falls Dr	1.17mi	3/2.0	1,689 (+17%)	1mo	$299,990	$178	39
13207 Hayden Peak Dr	1.12mi	3/2.0	1,640 (+13%)	4mo	$317,205	$193	39
13310 Padre Bay Ln	1.21mi	3/2.5	1,688 (+17%)	2mo	$297,825	$176	36
13306 Prado Ridge Ln	1.19mi	3/3.0	1,784 (+23%)	4mo	$339,482	$190	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -40.1%
Equity multiple: -0.23×
Total profit: $-98,233
Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

IRR: -89.2%
Equity multiple: -1.07×
Total profit: $-165,501
Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 2 active
Median asking: $299,995 ($187/sqft)
Median days on market: 76 d
This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking: +92.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

Rents YoY: 0.4%
Active inventory: 1445
Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,097 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,275/yr
Insurance: −$119
Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
Net cashflow: $-739

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,033

Max offer price $178,045

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-542	-5% $-641	+0% $-739	+5% $-838	+10% $-936
Rent	-10% $-905	-5% $-822	+0% $-739	+5% $-656	+10% $-573
Rate	-1.0pp $-596	-0.5pp $-667	base $-739	+0.5pp $-813	+1.0pp $-888

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $71,250
Closing costs: $8,550
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13023 Pleasant Valley Dr Rosharon, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	43d	1	1.08mi

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info: List price $280,000

Exterior

Parking: 1 parking space
Home design: Carriagehouse planSingle-family residenceActive listing
Exterior features: Living area approximately 1446

Interior

Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
Interior features: Spec home (new construction)

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $285,000 Active 85 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $285,000 Active 83 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $285,000 Active 82 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $285,000 Active 81 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $285,000 Active 80 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $285,000 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $285,000 Active 75 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $285,000 Active 74 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $285,000 Active 72 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $285,000 Active 70 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $285,000 Active 69 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $285,000 Active 68 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $285,000 Active 67 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $285,000 Active 66 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $285,000 Active 64 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $285,000 Active 63 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $285,000 Active 62 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $285,000 Active 61 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $285,000 Active 60 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $285,000 Active 59 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $285,000 Active 58 DOM
2026-07-11

pricedays on market $285,000 Active 57 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $280,000 Active 56 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $280,000 Active 55 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $280,000 Active 53 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $280,000 Active 52 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $280,000 Active 51 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $280,000 Active 50 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $280,000 Active 49 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $280,000 Active 48 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $280,000 Active 47 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $280,000 Active 46 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $280,000 Active 45 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $280,000 Active 44 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $280,000 Active 43 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $280,000 Active 42 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $280,000 Active 40 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $280,000 Active 38 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $280,000 Active 37 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $280,000 Active 34 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $280,000 Active 33 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $280,000 Active 32 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $280,000 Active 31 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $280,000 Active 29 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $280,000 Active 28 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $280,000 Active 25 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $280,000 Active 24 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $280,000 Active 23 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $280,000 Active 20 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $280,000 Active 19 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 69% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $25,169
− Mortgage interest: −$15,964
− Property taxes: −$4,275
− Insurance: −$6,544
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,014
− Management: −$2,014
− Depreciation: −$8,291
Taxable loss: −$13,932

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,344
After-tax cash flow: $-5,526/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It has the potential to be a great investment with minor updates to the exterior and interior.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value ↑
Both Replace carpet with hardwood or tile in living areas — Hardwood or tile flooring can increase both resale and rental value ↑
Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase both resale and rental value by adding modern amenities ↑

Schools (NCES district)

District: Alvin ISD
NCES district ID: 4808090
Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
Median HH income: $66,740
Composite: 38.96/100
National rank: #4080
State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Iowa Colony

Score: 64/100
State rank: #757
US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
City population: 52,747
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 52,747
Household income: $119,287
Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 420,414 people
By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
Current HPI: 198.6559
Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…