Oleander Plan · Pattison, TX 77423

$321,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,210 sqft · SingleFamily · 31 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

4 Bedrooms | 3 Bathrooms | Approx. 2,210 Sq. Ft. Come home to Azalea, a vibrant community in Brookshire, TX that blends peaceful country living with modern convenience. The Oleander blends thoughtful design with adaptable spaces, creating a comfortable and functional single-story layout. Just off the foyer, a secondary bedroom and full bath provide flexibility for guests or additional living needs. At the heart of the home, the expansive great room, casual dining area, and kitchen come together in an open-concept design ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features a large island, spacious pantry, and available design choices such as a built-in oven or enhanced cooktop.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Dedicated tech space
• Spacious pantry

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• LARGE ISLAND
• SPACIOUS PANTRY
• DEDICATED TECH SPACE
• FLEX ROOM
• PRIMARY SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $321,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $332,490.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $322k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-313 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (10.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.1% in Pattison — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#876 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1559 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($312k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,177 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.04%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $332,490
• List price: $321,990
• Delta: -3.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
344 Magnolia View Dr	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,211 (0%)	1mo	$334,990	$152	96
340 Magnolia View Dr	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,168 (-2%)	3mo	$329,990	$152	91
309 Redbud Ridge Dr	0.03mi	4/2.5	2,272 (+3%)	5mo	$390,843	$172	88
313 Redbud Ridge Dr	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,311 (+5%)	3mo	$319,990	$138	86
336 Magnolia View Dr	0.06mi	4/3.0	1,968 (-11%)	2mo	$299,990	$152	78
300 Redbud Ridge Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,522 (+14%)	1mo	$339,990	$135	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-81,166
• Equity at exit: $49,575

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-124,679
• Equity at exit: $28,748

Cash invested: $93,097 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 79 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 52.7 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $302,990 ($139/sqft)
• Median days on market: 79 d
• This list price: 70% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1559
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,512 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,744
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$416 /mo · $4,987/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $-313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,909

Max offer price $287,131

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-84	-5% $-199	+0% $-313	+5% $-428	+10% $-543
Rent	-10% $-512	-5% $-413	+0% $-313	+5% $-214	+10% $-115
Rate	-1.0pp $-146	-0.5pp $-229	base $-313	+0.5pp $-400	+1.0pp $-487

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,122
• Closing costs: $9,975
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $321,990 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $321,990 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $321,990 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $321,990 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $321,990 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $321,990 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $321,990 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $321,990 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $321,990 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $321,990 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $321,990 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $321,990 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $321,990 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $321,990 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $321,990 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $321,990 Active 15 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $321,990 Active 14 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $321,990 Active 13 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $321,990 Active 12 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $321,990 Active 11 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $321,990 Active 10 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $321,990 Active 9 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $321,990 Active 8 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $321,990 Active 7 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $321,990 Active 6 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $321,990 Active 5 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $321,990 Active 4 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $321,990 Active 3 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $321,990 Active 2 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on marketlisting id $321,990 Active 1 DOM
31. 2026-09-26
    days on market $321,990 Active 130 DOM
32. 2026-09-25
    days on market $321,990 Active 129 DOM
33. 2026-09-24
    days on market $321,990 Active 128 DOM
34. 2026-09-23
    pricedays on market $321,990 Active 127 DOM
35. 2026-09-22
    days on market $327,990 Active 126 DOM
36. 2026-09-21
    days on market $327,990 Active 125 DOM
37. 2026-09-20
    days on market $327,990 Active 124 DOM
38. 2026-09-19
    days on market $327,990 Active 123 DOM
39. 2026-09-18
    days on market $327,990 Active 122 DOM
40. 2026-09-17
    days on market $327,990 Active 121 DOM
41. 2026-09-16
    days on market $327,990 Active 120 DOM
42. 2026-09-15
    days on market $327,990 Active 119 DOM
43. 2026-09-14
    days on market $327,990 Active 118 DOM
44. 2026-09-13
    days on market $327,990 Active 117 DOM
45. 2026-09-12
    days on market $327,990 Active 116 DOM
46. 2026-09-11
    days on market $327,990 Active 115 DOM
47. 2026-09-05
    days on market $327,990 Active 109 DOM
48. 2026-09-04
    days on market $327,990 Active 108 DOM
49. 2026-09-02
    days on market $327,990 Active 106 DOM
50. 2026-08-31
    days on market $327,990 Active 104 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,141
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,625
• − Property taxes: −$4,987
• − Insurance: −$1,662
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,411
• − Management: −$2,411
• − Depreciation: −$9,672
• Taxable loss: −$9,628
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,311
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,451/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 23 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior and interior walls, landscaping improvements, and adding smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Royal El F TX #3,247/4,322 Nat'l #31,549/41,679 Middle Royal J H F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Royal H S F TX #1,377/1,632 Nat'l #13,899/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Pattison

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #15789

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 60,772 people
• City population: 18,767
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms