123 Lakebend Cir · Brandon, MS 39042

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,197 sqft · Townhouse public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1973 1,306 sqft lot Est $164k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Close to I-20, Hwy 80, restaurants, dr. offices, hospital, grocery store, and shopping, this 2 bedroom 1.5 bath condo in Lakebend is move-in ready. Washer, dryer, and refrigerator stay. Community pool and clubhouse are added features for the owner. Crossgates Lake provides relaxing views. Call your REALTOR today!

Key facts

• Gated private patio
• Walk-in pantry
• Built 1973

Tags

• WALK-IN PANTRY
• GATED PRIVATE PATIO
• VIEW OF CROSSGATES LAKE
• MINUTES AWAY FROM SHOPPING
• MINUTES AWAY FROM DINING
• MINUTES AWAY FROM SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association (management provided)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service available
• Home design: Townhouse; Two levels; Living area reported by owner
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation; Year built reported by owner
• Exterior features: Architectural shingle roof; Small yard (approx. 0.03 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $331 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 4.2% in Brandon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#3 in MS, #1,514 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stonebridge Elementary (math 49% / reading 45%, grade D-, #82 of 375 statewide, top 23%, 768 students, 100% FRL); Brandon Middle School (math 67% / reading 49%, grade B, #11 of 179 statewide, top 6%, 1,193 students, 100% FRL); Brandon High School (math 47% / reading 49%, grade D, #27 of 197 statewide, top 13%, 1,648 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 302 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.1% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.35%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $163,989
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
407 Lakebend Pl	0.07mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,194 (-0%)	4mo	$150,000	$126	86
111 Lakebend Cir	0.02mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,251 (+4%)	2mo	$169,000	$135	83
406 Lakebend Pl	0.06mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,238 (+3%)	4mo	$170,000	$137	81
404 Lakebend Pl	0.06mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,221 (+2%)	11mo	$179,000	$147	78
147 Lakebend Cir	0.03mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,220 (+2%)	13mo	$165,000	$135	78
341 Lakebend Dr	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,154 (-4%)	9mo	$169,000	$146	75
192 Lakebend Cir	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,337 (+12%)	7mo	$169,900	$127	70
215 Lakebend Cir	0.05mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,216 (+2%)	22mo	$160,000	$132	69
167 Lakebend Cir	0.09mi	3/3.0	1,350 (+13%)	10mo	$195,000	$144	62
342 Lakebend Dr	0.14mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,064 (-11%)	12mo	$154,900	$146	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $980
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $61,205
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39042

• Home prices YoY: -34.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,729 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $876/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,310

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
139 Lakebend Cir Brandon, MS	2.0	1.5	985	$1,500	$1.52	43d	1	0.05mi
100 Windsor Lake Blvd Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,600	$1.10	21d	1	0.96mi
100 Windsor Lake Blvd Brandon, MS	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,505	$1.25	43d	1	0.96mi
100 Windsor Lake Blvd Brandon, MS	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,390	$1.16	13d	1	0.96mi
330 Cross Park Dr Pearl, MS	2.0	2.0	1032	$1,530	$1.48	23d	1	0.96mi
330 Cross Park Dr Pearl, MS	2.0	2.0	1032	$1,500	$1.45	13d	1	0.96mi
1290 W Government St Brandon, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1129	$1,915	$1.70	13d	27	1.11mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $169,900 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $169,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $169,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $169,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $169,900 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   remarks 560-char remark
7. 2026-05-30
   listed $169,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $876 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,342 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: +$466/yr (+$39/mo · 53.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,747
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$876
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,660
• − Management: −$1,660
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $1,243
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$298
• After-tax cash flow: $3,675/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

Livability — Brandon

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #1514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brandon, MS
• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 79,950
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 39,142
• Household income: $88,597
• Rent vs Own: 17.4% rent · 82.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 474.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.04%
• Current HPI: 172.5248
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.13%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+42.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $169,900 MLSU
• 2019-08-23 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2019-05-16 Listed $119,500 MLSU

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $876 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.