518 Mccloud Ct · Jarrell, TX 76537

$169,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,192 sqft · SingleFamily · 55 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,534 sqft lot $143/sqft · 19% below area Est $211k · 19% under $100/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Gates - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to an outdoor space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DIRECT ACCESS OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $119 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.7% in Jarrell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 761 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,899 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.00%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,160
• List price: $169,999
• Delta: -19.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
273 Kings Row Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,213 (+2%)	2mo	$193,990	$160	89
444 Jones Beach Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,213 (+2%)	1mo	$188,990	$156	87
254 Kings Row Ln	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,213 (+2%)	2mo	$200,990	$166	87
237 Kings Row Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,213 (+2%)	3mo	$199,990	$165	85
112 Kings Row Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,213 (+2%)	4mo	$192,990	$159	80
121 Texas Angel Way	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+14%)	1mo	$198,999	$147	76
468 Jones Beach Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+14%)	1mo	$220,990	$163	70
261 Kings Row Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+14%)	1mo	$200,990	$148	69
266 Kings Row Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+14%)	2mo	$210,990	$156	68
249 Kings Row Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+14%)	2mo	$196,990	$145	68
420 Jones Beach Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+14%)	1mo	$217,990	$161	66
213 Kings Row Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+14%)	4mo	$197,990	$146	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-25,049
• Equity at exit: $25,347

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-31,676
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 761
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,764 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,550/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,614

Max offer price $169,999

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,495	$1.03	43d	1	0.02mi
136 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,550	$1.07	4d	1	0.02mi
133 Texas Angel Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,500	$1.22	23d	1	0.03mi
337 Rancho del Cielo Loop Georgetown, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,535	$1.09	20d	1	0.11mi
856 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1447	$1,600	$1.11	43d	1	0.26mi
253 Tugboat Annie Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,495	$1.08	14d	1	0.27mi
516 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,700	$1.33	43d	1	0.28mi
564 Rancho del Cielo Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,600	$1.26	2d	1	0.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $169,999 Pending 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,999 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,999 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,999 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $169,999 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $169,999 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $169,999 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $169,999 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $169,999 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-05-05
    price $169,999 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    The Gates - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to an outdoor space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

11. 2026-05-01
    price $171,999 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    The Gates - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to an outdoor space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

12. 2026-04-27
    price $173,999 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    The Gates - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to an outdoor space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

13. 2026-04-24
    price $177,999 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    The Gates - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to an outdoor space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

14. 2026-04-16
    listed $177,990 Active 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    The Gates - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in the back of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom, walk-in closet and direct access to an outdoor space. There are two secondary bedrooms that are both ideal for household members and overnight guests. Photos are for illustrative purposes only. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,172
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,550
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,694
• − Management: −$1,694
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$1,283
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$308
• After-tax cash flow: $1,736/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and ready for minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior in a more vibrant color to enhance curb appeal — A fresh coat of paint can make the home stand out and attract more buyers.
• Both Adding a small garden or landscaping feature near the front door — This can improve the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting for potential buyers or renters.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances to the latest models — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Rental Installing smart home technology in the bathrooms and kitchen — Smart home features can attract tech-savvy renters and add value to the property.
• Both Adding a smart thermostat to the HVAC system — This can improve energy efficiency and comfort for both buyers and renters, while also reducing utility costs.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior in a more vibrant color to enhance curb appeal — A fresh coat of paint can make the home stand out and attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Adding a small garden or landscaping feature near the front door — This can improve the home's curb appeal and make it more inviting for potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances to the latest models — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Installing smart home technology in the bathrooms and kitchen — Smart home features can attract tech-savvy renters and add value to the property. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat to the HVAC system — This can improve energy efficiency and comfort for both buyers and renters, while also reducing utility costs. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jarrell

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 16,272
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 225.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $169,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $171,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $173,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $177,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $177,990 Unlock MLS