15545 W Highway 31 · Dawson, TX 76679

$100,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,426 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1977 0.99 ac lot $70/sqft · 61% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

The property will need major renovations. It is a potential short sale. The buyer will buy as is and it is a cash sale. No type of financing will be allowed. The utilities are not on. A buyer must submit proof of fund with the contract. Contact the listing agent before sending over a contract. No blind offers. All buyers should see the property and walk through it and have an idea of what the repair cost is going to be. Any offer on a short sale must be approved by the bank. Buyer and buyer's agent should verify all listing information including but not limited to lot size, taxes, room dimensions and square footage.

Key facts

• 0.99 acre lot
• Built 1977
• Listed 43 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Notable: Property type marked Residential — Single Family Residence; Subdivision: merideth abst; County: Navarro; Directions: GPS
• Financial info: Listing is cash only; Second mortgage: No; Loan type listed as Treat As Clear
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: No carport or covered parking indicated; No designated parking features
• Utilities: Aerobic septic system; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Property attached: Yes
• Construction: Built in 1977; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Lot just under 1 acre (0.99 acres); Clay soil

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (level 1) — approximately 13 x 11
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fan(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; One living area; One dining area; 2 total listed rooms
• Laundry & utility: No washer/dryer information provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $295 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#493 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Blooming Grove ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 522 units permitted in Navarro County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Navarro County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (2.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.63%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,169
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -60.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.77% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $29,613
• Equity at exit: $43,655

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.88×
• Total profit: $80,714
• Equity at exit: $66,276

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76679

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,266 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,674/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $295

Break-even live

Break-even rent $893

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $351	-5% $323	+0% $295	+5% $266	+10% $238
Rent	-10% $195	-5% $245	+0% $295	+5% $345	+10% $395
Rate	-1.0pp $345	-0.5pp $320	base $295	+0.5pp $269	+1.0pp $242

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $100,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    listed $100,000 Active 623-char remark
16. 2026-03-27
    historical
17. 2025-11-06
    listed $67,900 Active
18. 2025-09-27
    historical
19. 2025-09-04
    price $67,900
20. 2025-03-31
    listed $87,900 Active
21. 2025-03-27
    historical
22. 2025-01-06
    price $95,900
23. 2024-09-27
    listed $110,000 Active
24. 2007-05-16
    soldstatus
25. 2006-05-18
    soldstatus
26. 2004-10-01
    soldstatus
27. 2004-09-07
    historical
28. 2004-05-23
    listed $50,000
29. 1986-12-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,674 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,830 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: +$156/yr (+$13/mo · 9.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,194
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,674
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,216
• − Management: −$1,216
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $2,078
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$499
• After-tax cash flow: $3,038/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blooming Grove ISD
• NCES district ID: 4810470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $48,446
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5004
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dawson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #493
• US rank: #9763

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,158

Population outlook (Navarro County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,397 people
• By 2030: 48,096 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 47,394 · -2.1%
• By 2050: 46,541 · -3.8%
• By 2075: 44,940 · -7.1%
• By 2100: 42,288 · -12.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Two or more races 25% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Navarro

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.8) · D 23.7% · R 75.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: -33.1pp · 2024: -51.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.8 2020: R+45.5 2016: R+48.8 2012: R+42.4 2008: R+33.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Current HPI: 111.801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $100,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-27 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-11-06 Listed $67,900 NTREIS
• 2025-09-27 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $67,900 NTREIS
• 2025-03-31 Listed $87,900 NTREIS
• 2025-03-27 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-01-06 Price Changed $95,900 NTREIS
• 2024-09-27 Listed $110,000 NTREIS
• 2007-05-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-05-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-09-07 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2004-05-23 Listed $50,000 NTREIS
• 1986-12-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,674 · +47.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.