12814 Island View Dr NW · Elk River, MN 55330

$335,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1974 0.32 ac lot $166/sqft · 26% below area Est $364k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This picturesque, private corner lot, will not disappoint. Enjoy stunning sunsets, campfires, views of wildlife & nature year round in this incredible, private setting. This sought after, serene location is across the street from Lake Orono & Orono Park, giving that desired Elk River feel. Also conveniently, located just minutes to more lakes, rivers, parks, hiking, schools, 10/101, all Downtown Elk River has to offer, shopping, dining, attractions & more. The family room concept is very flexible for furnishing this home, with several open concept options for living room & dining spaces. Spacious floorplan & 4 bedrooms, 3 beds on 1 level, SS appliances, newer carpet/hardwood throughout, shed & lots of storage. Oversized, driveway & heated garage. (could fit lots of toys/ incredible shop) Some fresh paint & thoughtful upgrades throughout. Perfect starter home or forever home.

Key facts

• Newer flooring
• Brand new roof
• Spacious floor plan

Tags

• PRIVATE CORNER LOT
• PEACEFUL SETTING
• SPACIOUS FLOOR PLAN
• BRAND NEW ROOF
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NEWER FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Conventional financing available

Exterior

• Parking: Heated 2-car garage (approx. 28 x 26)
• Utilities: Private well water; Private sewer; Natural gas; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Residential property; One level (main level living); Above- and below-grade finished living areas
• Construction: Block construction; Asphalt roof (age 8 years or less); Block foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Metal exterior; Corner lot with light tree coverage; Garage(s) and storage shed on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Eat-in kitchen / kitchen-dining area
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (3 on one level); Bedroom on main level; Bedroom on lower level
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: Main floor full bathroom; Basement 3/4 bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Gas water heater
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Hardwood floors; Kitchen window; Walk-in closet; Unfinished full basement with drain tile and sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (gas); Washer and dryer included; Water softener (owned)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $335k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-66 ($-788/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $323k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.3% in Elk River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#265 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Independent School District 728 (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #37 of 301 in MN (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Elementary (math 33% / reading 51%, grade F, #579 of 857 statewide, top 69%, 557 students, 46% FRL); Vandenberge Middle School (math 36% / reading 47%, grade F, #138 of 258 statewide, top 55%, 512 students, 27% FRL); Elk River Senior High (math 60% / reading 57%, grade C, #56 of 471 statewide, top 12%, 1,637 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 32% FRL vs 14% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 457 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 334 units permitted in Sherburne County in 2024 (58 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $269,562 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.84%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $364,023
• List price: $335,000
• Delta: -7.97%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-58,499
• Equity at exit: $49,950

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-56,458
• Equity at exit: $28,965

Cash invested: $93,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55330

• Active inventory: 457
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,696 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax from tax record: −$299 /mo · $3,586/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$566
• Net cashflow: $-66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,779

Max offer price $323,402

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $29	+0% $-66	+5% $-160	+10% $-255
Rent	-10% $-279	-5% $-172	+0% $-66	+5% $41	+10% $147
Rate	-1.0pp $103	-0.5pp $20	base $-66	+0.5pp $-152	+1.0pp $-241

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,750
• Closing costs: $10,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $335,000 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-05-18
   price $335,000 948-char remark
3. 2026-05-12
   listed $340,000 Active 948-char remark
4. 2026-05-12
   historical
5. 2026-05-01
   listed $345,000 Active
6. 2026-04-27
   historical
7. 2022-05-12
   soldstatus $325,000 Sold

   Show marketing remark (919 chars)

   This picturesque, private corner lot, will not disappoint. Enjoy stunning sunsets, campfires, views of wildlife & nature year round in this incredible, private setting. This sought after, serene location is across the street from Lake Orono & Orono Park, giving that desired Elk River feel. Also conveniently, located just minutes to more lakes, rivers, parks, hiking, schools, 10/101, all Downtown Elk River has to offer, shopping, dining, attractions & more. The family room concept is very flexible for furnishing this home, with several open concept options for living room & dining spaces. Spacious floorplan & 4 bedrooms, 3 beds on 1 level, SS appliances, newer carpet/hardwood throughout, shed & lots of storage. Oversized, driveway & heated garage. (could fit lots of toys/ incredible shop) Some fresh paint & thoughtful upgrades throughout. Perfect starter home or forever home.

8. 2022-03-14
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (919 chars)

   This picturesque, private corner lot, will not disappoint. Enjoy stunning sunsets, campfires, views of wildlife & nature year round in this incredible, private setting. This sought after, serene location is across the street from Lake Orono & Orono Park, giving that desired Elk River feel. Also conveniently, located just minutes to more lakes, rivers, parks, hiking, schools, 10/101, all Downtown Elk River has to offer, shopping, dining, attractions & more. The family room concept is very flexible for furnishing this home, with several open concept options for living room & dining spaces. Spacious floorplan & 4 bedrooms, 3 beds on 1 level, SS appliances, newer carpet/hardwood throughout, shed & lots of storage. Oversized, driveway & heated garage. (could fit lots of toys/ incredible shop) Some fresh paint & thoughtful upgrades throughout. Perfect starter home or forever home.

9. 2022-03-12
   listed $286,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (919 chars)

   This picturesque, private corner lot, will not disappoint. Enjoy stunning sunsets, campfires, views of wildlife & nature year round in this incredible, private setting. This sought after, serene location is across the street from Lake Orono & Orono Park, giving that desired Elk River feel. Also conveniently, located just minutes to more lakes, rivers, parks, hiking, schools, 10/101, all Downtown Elk River has to offer, shopping, dining, attractions & more. The family room concept is very flexible for furnishing this home, with several open concept options for living room & dining spaces. Spacious floorplan & 4 bedrooms, 3 beds on 1 level, SS appliances, newer carpet/hardwood throughout, shed & lots of storage. Oversized, driveway & heated garage. (could fit lots of toys/ incredible shop) Some fresh paint & thoughtful upgrades throughout. Perfect starter home or forever home.

10. 2022-03-10
    historical $286,900

    Show marketing remark (919 chars)

    This picturesque, private corner lot, will not disappoint. Enjoy stunning sunsets, campfires, views of wildlife & nature year round in this incredible, private setting. This sought after, serene location is across the street from Lake Orono & Orono Park, giving that desired Elk River feel. Also conveniently, located just minutes to more lakes, rivers, parks, hiking, schools, 10/101, all Downtown Elk River has to offer, shopping, dining, attractions & more. The family room concept is very flexible for furnishing this home, with several open concept options for living room & dining spaces. Spacious floorplan & 4 bedrooms, 3 beds on 1 level, SS appliances, newer carpet/hardwood throughout, shed & lots of storage. Oversized, driveway & heated garage. (could fit lots of toys/ incredible shop) Some fresh paint & thoughtful upgrades throughout. Perfect starter home or forever home.

11. 2019-09-06
    soldstatus $235,000
12. 2019-08-29
    soldstatus $235,000 Sold
13. 2019-07-24
    status Pending
14. 2019-07-19
    historical Contingent - Inspection
15. 2019-07-02
    listed $239,900 Active
16. 2011-09-02
    soldstatus $110,000
17. 2011-08-25
    soldstatus $110,000
18. 2011-08-03
    historical
19. 2011-05-18
    listed $110,000
20. 2011-05-17
    historical
21. 2011-01-13
    listed $124,900
22. 2011-01-12
    historical
23. 2010-11-27
    listed $153,500
24. 1997-07-22
    soldstatus $47,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,586 · $299/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,669 · $306/mo
• Expected delta: +$83/yr (+$7/mo · 2.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,347
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,765
• − Property taxes: −$3,586
• − Insurance: −$1,675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,588
• − Management: −$2,588
• − Depreciation: −$9,745
• Taxable loss: −$6,600
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,584
• After-tax cash flow: $796/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Independent School District 728
• NCES district ID: 2711370
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,336
• Composite: 52.5/100
• National rank: #1567
• State rank: #37 of 301 in MN

Livability — Elk River

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #5795

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elk River, MN
• County: Sherburne County · 120,363 people
• City population: 45,721
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 45,721
• Household income: $115,761
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 285.0

Population outlook (Sherburne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,402 people
• By 2030: 99,341 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 101,188 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 99,214 · +1.9%
• By 2075: 88,700 · -8.9%
• By 2100: 72,241 · -25.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sherburne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.9) · D 31.7% · R 66.6% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.7pp toward R · 2008: -18.2pp · 2024: -34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.9 2020: R+32.6 2016: R+37.0 2012: R+22.1 2008: R+18.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.46%
• Current HPI: 241.3028
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+612.8% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-28 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $335,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Listed $340,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $345,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Coming Soon — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-12 Sold (MLS) $325,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-14 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-12 Listed $286,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-10 Coming Soon $286,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $235,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-29 Sold (MLS) $235,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-24 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-19 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-02 Listed $239,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-02 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2011-08-25 Sold (MLS) $110,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-03 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-05-18 Listed $110,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-05-17 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-01-13 Listed $124,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-01-12 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-11-27 Listed $153,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,586 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.