26861 Pine Dr · Broomes Island, MD 20659

$45,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 154 Days on market

Built 1979 0.40 ac lot $67/sqft · 84% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The house is an unstaffed structure no interior inspections. There is no information about the septic or the well being sold as is where is.

Key facts

• 0.4 acre lot
• Built 1979
• Listed 153 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 38.3% vs local median 2.4% in Broomes Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#390 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 114.28%
• DSCR: 6.08
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $285,543
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -84.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
42111 Ridge Rd	0.65mi	2/1.0	597 (-11%)	16mo	$240,000	$402	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.49×
• Total profit: $69,191
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.61×
• Total profit: $158,890
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20659

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,967 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,192/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $1,200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $448

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $45,000 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $45,000 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $45,000 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 143 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $45,000 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $45,000 Active 134 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    price $45,000 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    The house is an unstaffed structure no interior inspections. There is no information about the septic or the well being sold as is where is.

17. 2026-01-16
    listed $59,000 Active 140-char remark

    Show marketing remark (140 chars)

    The house is an unstaffed structure no interior inspections. There is no information about the septic or the well being sold as is where is.

18. 2014-02-24
    historical Withdrawn
19. 2014-02-24
    historical
20. 2013-06-11
    listed Active
21. 2013-06-11
    listed $37,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,192 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,192 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,605
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$1,192
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,888
• − Management: −$1,888
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $14,582
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,500
• After-tax cash flow: $10,900/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Mary'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,240
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6444
• State rank: #8 of 24 in MD

Livability — Broomes Island

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #390
• US rank: #21229

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 422
• Population (ZIP): 23,918

Population outlook (St. Mary's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,125 people
• By 2030: 128,374 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 137,305 · +11.5%
• By 2050: 143,065 · +16.2%
• By 2075: 153,408 · +24.6%
• By 2100: 151,790 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Polish 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · German/W. Germanic 5% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Mary's

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.2% · R 57.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.41%
• Current HPI: 260.6298
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+19.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $45,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $59,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-02-24 Delisted — MRIS
• 2014-02-24 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-06-11 Listed — MRIS
• 2013-06-11 Listed $37,700 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,192 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.