3816 Wall Street St Unit HS 96 · Panama City, FL 32404

$254,335

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,413 sqft · SingleFamily · 128 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,500 sqft lot $180/sqft · 24% below area Est $334k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Wagner floor plan showcases a smart single-story design tailored for today's lifestyle. Two comfortable bedrooms are thoughtfully situated at the front of the home, offering flexibility for family, guests, or even a dedicated workspace. As you move toward the heart of the layout, an open and airy living space brings the kitchen, dining area, and family room together, creating a warm, connected environment for daily living or entertaining. The kitchen is highlighted by quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and 42' cabinetry, combining modern style with everyday practicality. The owner's suite is privately set at the back of the home, featuring a well-appointed bathroom and a spacious walk-in closet for a relaxing, retreat-like feel.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Walk-in closet
• Single-story design

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY DESIGN
• OPEN LIVING SPACE
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• 42 CABINETRY
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $254k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-347 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (19.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (29.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#350 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 969 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,516 (29.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.85%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,617
• List price: $254,335
• Delta: -23.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3508 Brooke Ln	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,484 (+5%)	14mo	$315,000	$212	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-66,626
• Equity at exit: $37,922

10-year hold

• IRR: -36.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.40×
• Total profit: $-99,494
• Equity at exit: $21,990

Cash invested: $71,214 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 969
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,785 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,334
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$318 /mo · $3,815/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $-347

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,225

Max offer price $204,069

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,584
• Closing costs: $7,630
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3641 T St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	13d	1	0.65mi
3525 T St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,600	$1.28	21d	1	0.73mi
3611 Eagle Ln Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	943	$1,350	$1.43	13d	1	0.77mi
3733 Avon Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,900	$1.52	21d	1	1.01mi
2601 Avondale Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1371	$1,700	$1.24	13d	1	1.02mi
3530 Game Farm Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	13d	1	1.03mi
2611 Avondale Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,495	$1.23	21d	1	1.06mi
2732 Usery Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	13d	1	1.09mi
4012 Millicent Ln Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,950	$1.09	21d	1	1.12mi
4113 Brighton Blvd Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,300	$1.29	13d	1	1.17mi
3545 Brentwood Pl Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1617	$2,200	$1.36	21d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $254,335 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,335 Active 127 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,335 Active 126 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,335 Active 125 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,335 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $254,335 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,335 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $254,335 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $254,335 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $254,335 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $254,335 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $254,335 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $254,335 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $254,335 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $254,335 Active 110 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $254,335 Active 109 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $254,335 Active 108 DOM
18. 2026-04-05
    price $254,990 755-char remark

    Show marketing remark (755 chars)

    The Wagner floor plan showcases a smart single-story design tailored for today's lifestyle. Two comfortable bedrooms are thoughtfully situated at the front of the home, offering flexibility for family, guests, or even a dedicated workspace. As you move toward the heart of the layout, an open and airy living space brings the kitchen, dining area, and family room together, creating a warm, connected environment for daily living or entertaining. The kitchen is highlighted by quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and 42' cabinetry, combining modern style with everyday practicality. The owner's suite is privately set at the back of the home, featuring a well-appointed bathroom and a spacious walk-in closet for a relaxing, retreat-like feel.

19. 2026-04-05
    listed $254,990 Active

    Show marketing remark (755 chars)

    The Wagner floor plan showcases a smart single-story design tailored for today's lifestyle. Two comfortable bedrooms are thoughtfully situated at the front of the home, offering flexibility for family, guests, or even a dedicated workspace. As you move toward the heart of the layout, an open and airy living space brings the kitchen, dining area, and family room together, creating a warm, connected environment for daily living or entertaining. The kitchen is highlighted by quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and 42' cabinetry, combining modern style with everyday practicality. The owner's suite is privately set at the back of the home, featuring a well-appointed bathroom and a spacious walk-in closet for a relaxing, retreat-like feel.

20. 2026-04-05
    historical

    Show marketing remark (755 chars)

    The Wagner floor plan showcases a smart single-story design tailored for today's lifestyle. Two comfortable bedrooms are thoughtfully situated at the front of the home, offering flexibility for family, guests, or even a dedicated workspace. As you move toward the heart of the layout, an open and airy living space brings the kitchen, dining area, and family room together, creating a warm, connected environment for daily living or entertaining. The kitchen is highlighted by quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and 42' cabinetry, combining modern style with everyday practicality. The owner's suite is privately set at the back of the home, featuring a well-appointed bathroom and a spacious walk-in closet for a relaxing, retreat-like feel.

21. 2026-02-18
    price $256,990 755-char remark

    Show marketing remark (755 chars)

    The Wagner floor plan showcases a smart single-story design tailored for today's lifestyle. Two comfortable bedrooms are thoughtfully situated at the front of the home, offering flexibility for family, guests, or even a dedicated workspace. As you move toward the heart of the layout, an open and airy living space brings the kitchen, dining area, and family room together, creating a warm, connected environment for daily living or entertaining. The kitchen is highlighted by quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and 42' cabinetry, combining modern style with everyday practicality. The owner's suite is privately set at the back of the home, featuring a well-appointed bathroom and a spacious walk-in closet for a relaxing, retreat-like feel.

22. 2026-02-11
    listed $251,990 Active 755-char remark

    Show marketing remark (755 chars)

    The Wagner floor plan showcases a smart single-story design tailored for today's lifestyle. Two comfortable bedrooms are thoughtfully situated at the front of the home, offering flexibility for family, guests, or even a dedicated workspace. As you move toward the heart of the layout, an open and airy living space brings the kitchen, dining area, and family room together, creating a warm, connected environment for daily living or entertaining. The kitchen is highlighted by quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and 42' cabinetry, combining modern style with everyday practicality. The owner's suite is privately set at the back of the home, featuring a well-appointed bathroom and a spacious walk-in closet for a relaxing, retreat-like feel.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,422
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,247
• − Property taxes: −$3,815
• − Insurance: −$1,272
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,714
• − Management: −$1,714
• − Depreciation: −$7,399
• Taxable loss: −$8,738
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,097
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from some exterior painting and landscaping improvements to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value
• Rental Replace light fixtures — Improves energy efficiency and enhances curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Rental Replace light fixtures — Improves energy efficiency and enhances curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #350
• US rank: #5823

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 91,445
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-05 Price Changed $254,990 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-05 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-05 Listed $254,990 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $256,990 CPARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Listed $251,990 CPARMLS