209 Oak Leaf Cir Unit 209-F · Bel Air South, MD 21009

$195,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,047 sqft · Condo · 23 Days on market

Built 1991 $302/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move right into this well-maintained 2 bedroom, 1 bath condo in the heart of Abingdon! Featuring clean carpeting and neutral paint throughout, this home offers a bright and comfortable layout ready for your personal touch. Spacious living room with access to a private balcony, separate dining area, and convenient in-unit washer and dryer. Both bedrooms offer generous space, including a primary bedroom with direct access to the full bath featuring dual sinks and a tub/shower combo with hall access. Enjoy low-maintenance living in a convenient location close to shopping, restaurants, parks, and commuter routes including I-95 and Route 24, making travel to Baltimore, Bel Air, and APG a breeze.

Key facts

• Dual sinks
• Private balcony
• Convenient location

Tags

• PRIVATE BALCONY
• IN-UNIT WASHER AND DRYER
• DUAL SINKS
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Condo fee $280 monthly; HOA fee $22 monthly; HOA covers common area maintenance, exterior building maintenance, lawn maintenance, sewer, snow removal, trash, and water; Community amenities include common grounds and a tot lot/playground; Pets allowed on a case-by-case basis

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Condominium unit/flat; Garden-style building (1–4 floors); Entry on level 1; Unit located outside city limits
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Year built per assessor
• Exterior features: Deck(s); No tidal water

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Exhaust fan; Refrigerator; Electric oven/range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level; 1 full bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: Central heat (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: Carpet; Ceiling fan(s); Dining area; Pantry; Tub with shower; Master bath
• Laundry & utility: Washer in unit; Dryer in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $192k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.1% in Bel Air South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#33 in MD, #1,172 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, cost of living D.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 158 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.1% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $150k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,075 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.34%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-12,554
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $43,356
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21009

• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,138 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,577/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$302
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,946

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
307L Tall Pines Ct Unit L Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,399	$1.85	15d	1	0.14mi
2509 Merrick Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	1.5	1230	$1,900	$1.54	44d	1	0.40mi
129 Long Meadow Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	1.5	1240	$2,200	$1.77	44d	1	0.46mi
158 Glen View Ter Abingdon, MD	2.0	2.5	1176	$1,995	$1.70	18d	1	0.50mi
3103 Cardinal Way Unit 1 Abingdon, MD	2.0	1.0	976	$1,800	$1.84	18d	1	0.83mi
644 Berwick Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,395	$1.60	44d	1	0.85mi
200 Foxhall Dr Bel Air, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	924	$1,904	$2.06	2d	28	0.88mi
2814 Meredith Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1320	$2,300	$1.74	24d	1	0.90mi
3361 Cheverly Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,195	$1.46	44d	1	0.92mi
321 Russo Way Bel Air, MD	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1199	$2,459	$2.05	2d	16	1.17mi
499 Crisfield Dr Abingdon, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	898	$1,782	$1.98	2d	11	1.22mi
499 Crisfield Dr Abingdon, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	898	$1,864	$2.08	44d	20	1.22mi
3101 White Oak Dr Abingdon, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	576	$1,630	$2.83	3d	5	1.32mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $302 · $3,624/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $195,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-26
    listed $195,000 Active
15. 2021-04-30
    soldstatus $150,000
16. 2008-10-15
    soldstatus $155,000
17. 2004-04-07
    soldstatus $96,200
18. 1998-01-06
    soldstatus $67,325
19. 1991-06-26
    soldstatus $71,014

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,851 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$274/yr (+$23/mo · 17.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,656
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,577
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,052
• − Management: −$2,052
• − HOA: −$3,624
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$1,221
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$293
• After-tax cash flow: $2,114/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harford County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400390
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $79,569
• Composite: 29.38/100
• National rank: #6527
• State rank: #9 of 24 in MD

Livability — Bel Air South

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #1172

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A- Cost of living D Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bel Air South, MD
• County: Harford County · 198,512 people
• City population: 63,895
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 33,679
• Household income: $121,660
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Harford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,292 people
• By 2030: 266,437 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 269,954 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 265,659 · +1.3%
• By 2075: 252,886 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 224,014 · -14.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harford

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 41.9% · R 55.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -176.25%
• Current HPI: 251.4376
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.12%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+174.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $195,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2008-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2004-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $96,200 Public Records
• 1998-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $67,325 Public Records
• 1991-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $71,014 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,577 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.